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Canada

Laval—Les Îles



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Laval—Les Îles 30% ± 7% LPC 27% ± 6%▼ CPC 24% ± 6% BQ 11% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 3%▲ GPC LPC 2021 48.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Laval—Les Îles 68% LPC 27%▼ CPC 5%▲ BQ Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Laval—Les Îles

LPC 30% ± 7% CPC 27% ± 6% NDP 11% ± 4% GPC 5% ± 3% BQ 24% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Laval—Les Îles 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 38% CPC 25% BQ 21% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 38% CPC 24% BQ 22% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 39% CPC 24% BQ 22% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 39% CPC 25% BQ 20% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 39% CPC 26% BQ 19% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 40% CPC 26% BQ 19% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 35% CPC 29% BQ 19% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 34% CPC 29% BQ 20% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 34% CPC 29% BQ 20% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 34% CPC 29% BQ 20% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 35% CPC 28% BQ 20% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 35% CPC 28% BQ 20% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 36% CPC 27% BQ 19% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 36% CPC 27% BQ 19% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 35% CPC 29% BQ 19% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 36% CPC 28% BQ 19% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 37% CPC 28% BQ 18% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 37% CPC 27% BQ 18% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 36% CPC 27% BQ 19% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 34% CPC 27% BQ 22% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 33% CPC 27% BQ 22% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 32% CPC 27% BQ 22% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 33% CPC 27% BQ 22% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 34% CPC 26% BQ 23% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 34% CPC 26% BQ 23% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 33% CPC 26% BQ 23% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 33% CPC 26% BQ 23% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 33% CPC 27% BQ 23% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 31% CPC 28% BQ 23% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 31% CPC 28% BQ 23% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 30% CPC 28% BQ 24% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 30% CPC 27% BQ 24% NDP 11% GPC 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Laval—Les Îles

LPC 68% CPC 27% NDP <1% BQ 5% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 86% CPC 14% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 83% CPC 17% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 86% CPC 14% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 88% CPC 12% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 90% CPC 10% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 90% CPC 10% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 96% CPC 4% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 96% CPC 4% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 91% CPC 9% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 95% CPC 5% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 98% CPC 2% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 97% CPC 3% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 96% CPC 4% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 92% CPC 8% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 87% CPC 13% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 85% CPC 14% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 90% CPC 10% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 94% CPC 6% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 95% CPC 4% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 94% CPC 5% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 91% CPC 8% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 88% CPC 11% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 74% CPC 24% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 70% CPC 29% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 68% CPC 28% BQ 4% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 68% CPC 27% BQ 5% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Laval—Les Îles



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 48.2% 48.9% 30% ± 7% BQ 20.6% 19.1% 24% ± 6% CPC 16.3% 17.7% 27% ± 6% NDP 8.9% 7.7% 11% ± 4% PPC 1.6% 5.1% 2% ± 3% GPC 4.3% 1.5% 5% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.