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Canada

Portage—Lisgar



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Portage—Lisgar


Liberal Robert Kreis
Conservative Branden Leslie
NDP Lisa Tessier-Burch
Green Janine Gibson
PPC Kevin Larson

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Portage—Lisgar 59% ± 9% CPC 28% ± 8% LPC 7% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 6% PPC CPC 2021 52.1% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Portage—Lisgar >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Portage—Lisgar

LPC 28% ± 8% CPC 59% ± 9% NDP 7% ± 4% PPC 5% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Portage—Lisgar 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP PPC April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 59% LPC 16% NDP 12% PPC 9% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 57% LPC 19% NDP 12% PPC 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 58% LPC 25% NDP 8% PPC 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 58% LPC 25% NDP 8% PPC 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 57% LPC 25% NDP 8% PPC 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 57% LPC 26% NDP 8% PPC 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 57% LPC 26% NDP 8% PPC 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 58% LPC 26% NDP 8% PPC 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 58% LPC 27% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 58% LPC 27% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 58% LPC 27% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 58% LPC 27% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 57% LPC 28% NDP 8% PPC 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 57% LPC 28% NDP 8% PPC 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 57% LPC 28% NDP 8% PPC 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 57% LPC 28% NDP 8% PPC 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 58% LPC 27% NDP 8% PPC 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 7% PPC 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 7% PPC 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 7% PPC 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 58% LPC 29% NDP 7% PPC 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 58% LPC 29% NDP 7% PPC 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 58% LPC 29% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 58% LPC 29% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 59% LPC 29% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 7% PPC 5% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Portage—Lisgar

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Portage—Lisgar



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 70.9% 52.1% 59% ± 9% LPC 10.6% 11.0% 28% ± 8% NDP 8.7% 13.4% 7% ± 4% PPC 2.6% 21.9% 5% ± 6% GPC 5.2% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.