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Canada


Yorkton–Melville (federal)


MP: Cathay Wagantall (CPC)


Latest projection: April 14, 2024

CPC safe hold
Yorkton–Melville 76% ± 7% 13% ± 5% 3% ± 2% CPC 2021 68.67% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Yorkton–Melville >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 14, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Yorkton–Melville

CPC 76% ± 7% NDP 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Yorkton–Melville 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 CPC NDP

Odds of winning | Yorkton–Melville

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Yorkton–Melville



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 59.2% 76.2% 68.67% 76% ± 7% NDP 20.2% 12.2% 12.2% 13% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 2.4% 9.35% 2% ± 3% LPC 17.8% 6.4% 6.29% 3% ± 2% GPC 2.8% 2.8% 1.77% 2% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% MAV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%