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Canada

Yorkton—Melville


MP: Cathay Wagantall (CPC)

Latest projection: August 31, 2025
CPC safe

Recent electoral history | Yorkton—Melville


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 73% ± 8% 78.0% 68.8% 77.5% LPC 15% ± 6% 6.6% 6.3% 14.4% NDP 8% ± 5% 12.5% 12.1% 5.5% GPC 3% ± 3% 0.5% 1.7% 1.9% PPC 0% ± 0% 2.4% 9.2% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Yorkton—Melville


Yorkton—Melville 73% ± 8% CPC 15% ± 6% LPC 8% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 3%▲ GPC CPC 2025 77.5% 338Canada vote projection | August 31, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Yorkton—Melville >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | August 31, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Yorkton—Melville

LPC 15% ± 6% CPC 73% ± 8% NDP 8% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Yorkton—Melville 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP August 31, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 73% NDP 12% LPC 4% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 73% NDP 12% LPC 4% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 72% NDP 12% LPC 4% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 71% NDP 12% LPC 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 70% NDP 12% LPC 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 70% NDP 11% LPC 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 70% NDP 10% LPC 6% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 67% NDP 11% LPC 8% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 67% NDP 11% LPC 8% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 65% NDP 10% LPC 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 67% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 67% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 67% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 67% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 67% LPC 16% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 67% LPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 67% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 67% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 67% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 67% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 67% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 67% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 67% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 67% LPC 17% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 68% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 68% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 68% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 68% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 68% LPC 18% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 70% LPC 18% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 70% LPC 18% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 70% LPC 18% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 72% LPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 72% LPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 72% LPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 72% LPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 72% LPC 19% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 72% LPC 19% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 72% LPC 19% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 72% LPC 19% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 72% LPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 72% LPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 71% LPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 71% LPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 71% LPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 71% LPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 71% LPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 71% LPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 71% LPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 71% LPC 20% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 71% LPC 20% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 78% LPC 14% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 78% LPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 78% LPC 14% NDP 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 77% LPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 77% LPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 77% LPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 77% LPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 76% LPC 15% NDP 6% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 75% LPC 16% NDP 6% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 74% LPC 16% NDP 6% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 74% LPC 16% NDP 7% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 74% LPC 16% NDP 7% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 74% LPC 16% NDP 7% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 73% LPC 16% NDP 7% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 73% LPC 16% NDP 8% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 73% LPC 16% NDP 8% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 73% LPC 15% NDP 8% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 73% LPC 15% NDP 8% 2025-08-31 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Yorkton—Melville

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP August 31, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-08-31 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader