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Canada

Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi


MP: Sophie Chatel (LPC)

Latest projection: June 8, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 55% ± 8% 49.2% 43.9% 54.6% CPC 27% ± 7% 17.7% 21.4% 27.6% BQ 10% ± 4% 14.5% 15.2% 10.3% NDP 5% ± 4% 10.8% 11.3% 5.1% GPC 1% ± 1% 6.2% 2.9% 1.3% PPC 1% ± 2% 1.2% 4.5% 1.1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi 55% ± 8% LPC 27% ± 7%▼ CPC 10% ± 4% BQ 5% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 54.6% 338Canada vote projection | June 8, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | June 8, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi

LPC 55% ± 8% CPC 27% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 4% BQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 31% LPC 30% BQ 19% NDP 12% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 31% LPC 30% BQ 18% NDP 12% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 31% LPC 30% BQ 18% NDP 12% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 32% CPC 30% BQ 18% NDP 12% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 36% CPC 28% BQ 16% NDP 12% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 38% CPC 28% BQ 16% NDP 10% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 40% CPC 28% BQ 15% NDP 9% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 43% CPC 26% BQ 14% NDP 9% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 44% CPC 27% BQ 14% NDP 9% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 46% CPC 26% BQ 13% NDP 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 48% CPC 25% BQ 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 49% CPC 25% BQ 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 48% CPC 25% BQ 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 25% BQ 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 48% CPC 25% BQ 13% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 48% CPC 24% BQ 13% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 51% CPC 23% BQ 12% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 51% CPC 23% BQ 12% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 51% CPC 24% BQ 12% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 52% CPC 24% BQ 12% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 52% CPC 24% BQ 11% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 53% CPC 24% BQ 11% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 53% CPC 24% BQ 11% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 54% CPC 24% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 55% CPC 25% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 56% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 56% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 57% CPC 23% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 57% CPC 23% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 58% CPC 23% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% CPC 23% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 56% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 56% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 56% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 56% CPC 25% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 55% CPC 25% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 54% CPC 26% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 54% CPC 26% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 54% CPC 26% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 55% CPC 25% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 54% CPC 28% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 54% CPC 28% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 54% CPC 28% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 55% CPC 28% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 55% CPC 28% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 55% CPC 27% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-06-08 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader