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Recent electoral history | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 49% ± 7% 49.2% 43.9% 54.6% CPC 25% ± 6% 17.7% 21.4% 27.6% BQ 14% ± 5% 14.5% 15.2% 10.3% NDP 8% ± 4% 10.8% 11.3% 5.1% GPC 3% ± 3% 6.2% 2.9% 1.3% PPC 1% ± 2% 1.2% 4.5% 1.2%

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338Canada Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi projection

Latest update: January 25, 2026

Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi 42% 56% 49% ± 7% LPC 19% 30% 25% ± 6% CPC 10% 19% 14% ± 5% BQ 4% 12% 8% ± 4% NDP 0% 6% 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2025 54.6% 338Canada vote projection | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi

LPC 49% ± 7% CPC 25% ± 6% NDP 8% ± 4% BQ 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC January 25, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 54% CPC 26% BQ 9% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 54% CPC 26% BQ 9% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 55% CPC 25% BQ 9% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 54% CPC 28% BQ 10% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 54% CPC 28% BQ 10% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 54% CPC 28% BQ 10% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 55% CPC 28% BQ 10% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 55% CPC 28% BQ 10% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 55% CPC 27% BQ 10% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 55% CPC 27% BQ 11% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 55% CPC 27% BQ 10% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 57% CPC 25% BQ 10% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 58% CPC 24% BQ 10% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 59% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 59% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 59% CPC 24% BQ 10% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 59% CPC 23% BQ 10% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 57% CPC 23% BQ 11% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 11% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 55% CPC 25% BQ 11% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 55% CPC 25% BQ 12% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 54% CPC 25% BQ 12% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 54% CPC 25% BQ 12% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 54% CPC 26% BQ 12% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 53% CPC 27% BQ 12% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 53% CPC 27% BQ 12% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 52% CPC 27% BQ 12% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 52% CPC 27% BQ 12% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 52% CPC 27% BQ 12% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 52% CPC 27% BQ 12% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 52% CPC 28% BQ 12% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 51% CPC 28% BQ 12% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 51% CPC 28% BQ 12% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 51% CPC 28% BQ 12% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 52% CPC 26% BQ 14% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 51% CPC 26% BQ 14% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 50% CPC 26% BQ 14% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 49% CPC 24% BQ 14% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 49% CPC 24% BQ 14% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 49% CPC 24% BQ 14% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 49% CPC 24% BQ 14% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 49% CPC 25% BQ 14% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2026-01-25

Odds of winning | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 25, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-25


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Demographic data | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 63.2% French 32.3% English 0.9% Arabic 0.9% Spanish 0.3% Mandarin 0.3% Russian 0.2% Serbo-CroatianPontiac—Kitigan ZibiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 11.7% No diploma 18.2% High school 13.3% Trade 19.9% College / Cégep 2.8% Some university 21.0% Bachelor's 13.1% PostgraduatePontiac—Kitigan ZibiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 86.9% Not visible minority 13.1% Visible minority 6.6% Black 2.3% Arab 1.3% Latin American 0.8% Chinese 0.4% South Asian 0.4% MultiplePontiac—Kitigan ZibiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 48.8% Catholic 31.1% No Religion 5.9% Christian (n.o.s.) 3.9% Muslim 2.0% Other Christian 1.7% Anglican 1.6% United Church 1.2% OrthodoxPontiac—Kitigan ZibiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 75.1% Owner 24.7% Renter 0.2% Community housingPontiac—Kitigan ZibiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 60.8% Employed 34.0% Not in labour force 5.2% UnemployedPontiac—Kitigan ZibiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 91.6% Non-Indigenous 8.4% Indigenous identity 4.3% Metis 3.7% First Nations 0.2% Multiple 0.1% Others 0.1% InukPontiac—Kitigan ZibiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 88.2% Car / truck / van 5.4% Public transit 3.2% Walking 2.5% Other 0.7% BicyclePontiac—Kitigan ZibiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.