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Canada

Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC leaning
Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi 31% ± 7% LPC 27% ± 6% CPC 18% ± 5% BQ 14% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 43.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi 79%▼ LPC 21%▲ CPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi

LPC 31% ± 7% CPC 27% ± 6% NDP 14% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 18% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 34% CPC 29% BQ 17% NDP 11% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 34% CPC 28% BQ 18% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 35% CPC 27% BQ 18% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 35% CPC 29% BQ 17% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 35% CPC 29% BQ 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 35% CPC 29% BQ 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 34% CPC 29% BQ 17% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 33% CPC 29% BQ 17% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 33% CPC 28% BQ 17% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 34% CPC 28% BQ 17% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 34% CPC 28% BQ 17% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 34% CPC 28% BQ 17% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 35% CPC 27% BQ 17% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 35% CPC 27% BQ 17% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 34% CPC 28% BQ 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 35% CPC 28% BQ 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 36% CPC 27% BQ 15% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 36% CPC 27% BQ 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 35% CPC 27% BQ 16% NDP 12% GPC 6% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 35% CPC 27% BQ 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 34% CPC 27% BQ 17% NDP 13% GPC 6% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 33% CPC 27% BQ 17% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 34% CPC 26% BQ 17% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 35% CPC 26% BQ 17% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 35% CPC 25% BQ 17% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 35% CPC 26% BQ 17% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 35% CPC 26% BQ 18% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 34% CPC 27% BQ 17% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 33% CPC 28% BQ 17% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 32% CPC 28% BQ 17% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 31% CPC 27% BQ 18% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 31% CPC 27% BQ 18% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi

LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 84% CPC 16% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 87% CPC 13% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 95% CPC 5% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 90% CPC 10% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 88% CPC 12% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 89% CPC 11% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 83% CPC 17% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 80% CPC 20% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 84% CPC 16% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 87% CPC 13% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 88% CPC 12% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 88% CPC 12% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 95% CPC 5% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 95% CPC 5% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 89% CPC 11% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 94% CPC 6% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 97% CPC 3% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 96% CPC 4% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 95% CPC 5% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 93% CPC 7% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 91% CPC 9% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 95% CPC 5% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 98% CPC 2% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 97% CPC 3% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 96% CPC 4% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 93% CPC 7% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 83% CPC 17% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 80% CPC 20% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 80% CPC 20% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 79% CPC 21% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.2% 43.9% 31% ± 7% CPC 17.7% 21.4% 27% ± 6% BQ 14.5% 15.2% 18% ± 5% NDP 10.8% 11.3% 14% ± 5% PPC 1.2% 4.5% 2% ± 3% GPC 6.2% 2.9% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.