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Canada

Montcalm



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
BQ safe
Montcalm 55% ± 8% BQ 14% ± 5% LPC 14% ± 5% CPC 8% ± 4% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC BQ 2021 53.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Montcalm >99% BQ <1% LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Montcalm

LPC 14% ± 5% CPC 14% ± 5% NDP 8% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% BQ 55% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Montcalm 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 54% LPC 16% CPC 15% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 56% LPC 15% CPC 14% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 55% LPC 16% CPC 14% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 53% LPC 16% CPC 15% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 52% LPC 17% CPC 16% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 51% LPC 17% CPC 16% NDP 6% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 53% LPC 16% CPC 15% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 54% LPC 15% CPC 15% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 54% LPC 15% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 54% LPC 15% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 54% LPC 15% CPC 14% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 54% LPC 15% CPC 14% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 53% LPC 16% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 53% LPC 16% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 52% LPC 16% CPC 15% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 52% LPC 17% CPC 15% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 51% LPC 17% CPC 15% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 52% LPC 17% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 52% LPC 16% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 53% LPC 16% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 53% LPC 15% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 53% LPC 15% CPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 53% LPC 16% CPC 13% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 54% LPC 16% CPC 13% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 54% LPC 16% CPC 13% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 54% LPC 16% CPC 13% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 55% LPC 15% CPC 13% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 54% LPC 15% CPC 13% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 54% LPC 15% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 54% LPC 14% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 55% LPC 14% CPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 55% LPC 14% CPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Montcalm

LPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Montcalm



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 58.0% 53.2% 55% ± 8% LPC 20.7% 20.0% 14% ± 5% CPC 8.9% 11.7% 14% ± 5% NDP 6.5% 6.3% 8% ± 4% PPC 0.9% 4.3% 3% ± 4% GPC 4.4% 2.6% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.