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Canada

Montcalm



Latest projection: March 27, 2025
BQ likely
Montcalm 43% ± 8%▼ BQ 28% ± 7% LPC 15% ± 5% CPC 4% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% NDP 4% ± 5% PPC BQ 2021 53.2% 338Canada vote projection | March 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Montcalm >99% BQ <1% LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | March 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Montcalm

LPC 28% ± 7% CPC 15% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC 4% ± 4% BQ 43% ± 8% PPC 4% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Montcalm 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC March 27, 2025 2025-03-09 BQ 47% LPC 22% CPC 16% NDP 6% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 46% LPC 23% CPC 16% NDP 5% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 15% NDP 5% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 15% NDP 5% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 16% NDP 5% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 15% NDP 5% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 15% NDP 5% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 15% NDP 5% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 44% LPC 27% CPC 15% GPC 4% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 44% LPC 28% CPC 15% GPC 4% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 43% LPC 28% CPC 15% GPC 4% NDP 4% PPC 4% 2025-03-27 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Montcalm

LPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP BQ March 27, 2025 2025-03-09 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Montcalm



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 58.0% 53.2% 43% ± 8% LPC 20.7% 20.0% 28% ± 7% CPC 8.9% 11.7% 15% ± 5% GPC 4.4% 2.6% 4% ± 4% NDP 6.5% 6.3% 4% ± 3% PPC 0.9% 4.3% 4% ± 5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.