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Canada

Montcalm


MP elect: Luc Theriault (BQ)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
BQ safe

Candidates | Montcalm


Liberal Fatima Badran
Conservative Jean-Sebastien Lepage
NDP Denis Perreault
Bloc Quebecois Luc Theriault*

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Montcalm 47% ± 6% BQ 27% ± 5% LPC 23% ± 5% CPC 3% ± 2% NDP BQ 2025 46.6% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Montcalm >99% BQ <1% LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Montcalm

LPC 27% ± 5% CPC 23% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 2% BQ 47% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Montcalm 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 56% CPC 16% LPC 13% NDP 7% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 55% CPC 17% LPC 13% NDP 7% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 54% CPC 17% LPC 13% NDP 7% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 54% CPC 16% LPC 14% NDP 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 52% LPC 16% CPC 16% NDP 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 51% LPC 18% CPC 16% NDP 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 50% LPC 19% CPC 16% NDP 6% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 48% LPC 21% CPC 16% NDP 6% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 47% LPC 22% CPC 16% NDP 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 46% LPC 23% CPC 16% NDP 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 15% NDP 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 15% NDP 5% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 16% NDP 5% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 15% NDP 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 15% NDP 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 45% LPC 25% CPC 15% NDP 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 44% LPC 27% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 44% LPC 28% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 43% LPC 28% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 42% LPC 29% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 42% LPC 29% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 41% LPC 30% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 42% LPC 30% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 41% LPC 31% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 41% LPC 31% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 41% LPC 32% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 41% LPC 32% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 41% LPC 32% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 41% LPC 32% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 41% LPC 32% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 42% LPC 32% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 42% LPC 32% CPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 47% LPC 35% CPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 47% LPC 35% CPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 47% LPC 34% CPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 47% LPC 34% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 47% LPC 34% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 47% LPC 34% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 47% LPC 34% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 48% LPC 33% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 48% LPC 33% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 48% LPC 33% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 48% LPC 33% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 49% LPC 32% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 50% LPC 31% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 50% LPC 31% CPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 50% LPC 31% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 50% LPC 30% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 50% LPC 30% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 50% LPC 30% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 49% LPC 31% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 47% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 47% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 47% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 47% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Montcalm

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Montcalm



2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 47% ± 6% 58.0% 53.2% 46.6% LPC 27% ± 5% 20.7% 20.0% 26.9% CPC 23% ± 5% 8.9% 11.7% 23.2% NDP 3% ± 2% 6.5% 6.3% 3.2% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.9% 4.3% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 4.4% 2.6% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.