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Canada

Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies


Liberal Kennith Robertson
Conservative Mel Arnold*
NDP Phaedra Idzan
Green Owen Madden
PPC Michael Henry

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies 50% ± 8% CPC 36% ± 8% LPC 8% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC CPC 2021 45.0% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies

LPC 36% ± 8% CPC 50% ± 8% NDP 8% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 51% LPC 20% NDP 18% GPC 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 52% LPC 21% NDP 16% GPC 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 53% LPC 26% NDP 12% GPC 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 53% LPC 27% NDP 12% GPC 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 53% LPC 27% NDP 12% GPC 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 53% LPC 27% NDP 12% GPC 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 12% GPC 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 11% GPC 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 10% GPC 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 51% LPC 32% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 51% LPC 33% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 51% LPC 33% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 50% LPC 36% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 50% LPC 36% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 51% LPC 36% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 51% LPC 36% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 51% LPC 36% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 51% LPC 36% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 50% LPC 36% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 50% LPC 36% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies

LPC 2% CPC 98% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 46.3% 45.0% 50% ± 8% LPC 22.7% 16.6% 36% ± 8% NDP 17.8% 25.0% 8% ± 4% GPC 10.7% 5.1% 3% ± 3% PPC 2.2% 8.2% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.