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Canada

Moncton—Dieppe


Latest projection: September 15, 2024
LPC leaning
Moncton—Dieppe 40% ± 8% LPC 35% ± 8%▲ CPC 16% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 50.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Moncton—Dieppe 79%▼ LPC 21%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | September 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Moncton—Dieppe

LPC 40% ± 8% CPC 35% ± 8% NDP 16% ± 6% GPC 5% ± 4% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Moncton—Dieppe 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC September 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 40% CPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 5% PPC 2% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 40% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 40% CPC 36% NDP 17% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 40% CPC 36% NDP 17% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 41% CPC 35% NDP 17% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 41% CPC 34% NDP 17% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 41% CPC 33% NDP 18% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 41% CPC 33% NDP 19% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 42% CPC 31% NDP 18% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 44% CPC 30% NDP 18% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 45% CPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 44% CPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 43% CPC 30% NDP 18% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 43% CPC 31% NDP 18% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 42% CPC 32% NDP 18% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 41% CPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 41% CPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 40% CPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 40% CPC 35% NDP 16% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-09-15

Odds of winning | Moncton—Dieppe

LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP September 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-09-15

Recent electoral history | Moncton—Dieppe



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 44.2% 50.0% 40% ± 8% CPC 22.8% 22.6% 35% ± 8% NDP 11.8% 16.8% 16% ± 6% PPC 2.4% 6.3% 3% ± 4% GPC 17.5% 4.3% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.