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Canada

Moncton—Dieppe



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
LPC likely
Moncton—Dieppe 41% ± 8% LPC 33% ± 7%▼ CPC 17% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 50.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Moncton—Dieppe 93%▲ LPC 7%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Moncton—Dieppe

LPC 41% ± 8% CPC 33% ± 7% NDP 17% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Moncton—Dieppe 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 40% CPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 40% CPC 37% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 40% CPC 36% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 40% CPC 36% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 41% CPC 35% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 41% CPC 34% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 41% CPC 33% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 41% CPC 33% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 42% CPC 31% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 44% CPC 30% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 45% CPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 44% CPC 29% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 43% CPC 30% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 43% CPC 31% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 42% CPC 32% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 41% CPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 41% CPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 40% CPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 40% CPC 35% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 40% CPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 39% CPC 36% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 40% CPC 35% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 40% CPC 34% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 41% CPC 34% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 41% CPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Moncton—Dieppe

LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Moncton—Dieppe



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 44.2% 50.0% 41% ± 8% CPC 22.8% 22.6% 33% ± 7% NDP 11.8% 16.8% 17% ± 5% PPC 2.4% 6.3% 3% ± 4% GPC 17.5% 4.3% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.