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Canada

Scarborough North



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Scarborough North


Liberal Shaun Chen*
Conservative Gurmit Sandhu
NDP Karishma Manji
Centrist Richard Liao

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Scarborough North 71% ± 8% LPC 22% ± 7% CPC 5% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 67.0% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough North >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Scarborough North

LPC 71% ± 8% CPC 22% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough North 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 61% CPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 63% CPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 65% CPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 65% CPC 23% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 65% CPC 23% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 65% CPC 23% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 66% CPC 23% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 66% CPC 23% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 67% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 67% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 67% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 68% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 68% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 68% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 68% CPC 23% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 69% CPC 23% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 70% CPC 23% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 70% CPC 22% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 70% CPC 23% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 71% CPC 22% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 70% CPC 22% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 70% CPC 23% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 70% CPC 23% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 71% CPC 22% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 70% CPC 22% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 70% CPC 22% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 71% CPC 22% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 71% CPC 22% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 71% CPC 22% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 71% CPC 22% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Scarborough North

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Scarborough North



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 56.3% 67.0% 71% ± 8% CPC 27.5% 18.1% 22% ± 7% NDP 12.8% 11.6% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.9% 2.4% 0% ± 0% GPC 2.1% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.