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Canada


Scarborough–Guildwood (federal)


MP: John McKay (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

LPC safe hold
Scarborough–Guildwood 54% ± 7% 27% ± 6% 16% ± 5% LPC 2021 61.11% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Scarborough–Guildwood >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Scarborough–Guildwood

LPC 54% ± 7% CPC 27% ± 6% NDP 16% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough–Guildwood 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | Scarborough–Guildwood

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Scarborough–Guildwood



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 60.0% 61.1% 61.11% 54% ± 7% CPC 26.5% 22.4% 21.28% 27% ± 6% NDP 11.3% 11.2% 13.57% 16% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.5% 2.92% 2% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.6% 0.64% 0% ± 0% GPC 1.4% 2.9% 0.0% 1% ± 1%