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Canada

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River 33% ± 13% LPC 32% ± 13%▼ CPC 28% ± 12% NDP LPC 2021 46.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River 45%▲ LPC 40%▼ CPC 15% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

LPC 33% ± 13% CPC 32% ± 13% NDP 28% ± 12% Popular vote projection % | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 36% CPC 32% NDP 26% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 37% CPC 32% NDP 25% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 38% CPC 32% NDP 24% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 38% CPC 32% NDP 24% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 39% CPC 31% NDP 23% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 40% CPC 31% NDP 23% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 39% CPC 30% NDP 24% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 39% CPC 30% NDP 24% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 39% CPC 29% NDP 23% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 39% CPC 30% NDP 23% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 39% CPC 30% NDP 23% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 39% CPC 30% NDP 23% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 37% CPC 31% NDP 24% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 37% CPC 31% NDP 24% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 24% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 38% CPC 29% NDP 25% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 39% CPC 28% NDP 25% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 38% CPC 29% NDP 25% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 39% CPC 29% NDP 24% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 35% CPC 30% NDP 27% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 34% CPC 31% NDP 28% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 31% LPC 31% NDP 30% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 31% LPC 30% NDP 30% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 31% LPC 31% NDP 30% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 31% LPC 31% NDP 30% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 31% LPC 31% NDP 29% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 32% CPC 32% NDP 28% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 33% CPC 32% NDP 28% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 33% LPC 32% NDP 27% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 34% LPC 32% NDP 27% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 33% CPC 33% NDP 28% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 33% CPC 32% NDP 28% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

LPC 45% CPC 40% NDP 15% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 65% CPC 29% NDP 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 70% CPC 26% NDP 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 71% CPC 26% NDP 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 76% CPC 22% NDP 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 80% CPC 17% NDP 2% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 79% CPC 17% NDP 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 80% CPC 17% NDP 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 81% CPC 16% NDP 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 80% CPC 17% NDP 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 79% CPC 18% NDP 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 80% CPC 17% NDP 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 72% CPC 23% NDP 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 69% CPC 25% NDP 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 74% CPC 21% NDP 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 78% CPC 17% NDP 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 82% CPC 13% NDP 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 77% CPC 17% NDP 6% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 80% CPC 16% NDP 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 62% CPC 26% NDP 12% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 53% CPC 32% NDP 15% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 38% LPC 35% NDP 27% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 36% LPC 32% NDP 32% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 36% LPC 34% NDP 30% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 38% LPC 35% NDP 27% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 38% LPC 36% NDP 26% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 41% CPC 40% NDP 19% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 16% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 52% LPC 35% NDP 13% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 43% CPC 42% NDP 15% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 45% CPC 40% NDP 15% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 36.1% 46.3% 33% ± 13% NDP 39.2% 24.0% 28% ± 12% CPC 21.9% 23.6% 32% ± 13% PPC 0.8% 3.1% 2% ± 4% GPC 1.9% 1.2% 2% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.