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Canada

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River


MP: Buckley Belanger (LPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 65% ± 14% 36.1% 46.3% 65.1% CPC 26% ± 13% 21.9% 23.6% 25.5% NDP 9% ± 9% 39.2% 24.0% 9.4% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.8% 3.1% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River 65% ± 14% LPC 26% ± 13%▲ CPC 9% ± 9% NDP LPC 2025 65.1% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

LPC 65% ± 14% CPC 26% ± 13% NDP 9% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 35% LPC 32% NDP 27% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 34% LPC 34% NDP 27% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 34% LPC 34% NDP 27% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 35% CPC 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 38% CPC 31% NDP 26% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 40% CPC 30% NDP 24% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 43% CPC 30% NDP 21% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 44% CPC 27% NDP 22% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 44% CPC 27% NDP 22% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 48% CPC 25% NDP 21% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 54% CPC 25% NDP 16% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 55% CPC 25% NDP 16% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 55% CPC 25% NDP 16% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 55% CPC 25% NDP 16% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 55% CPC 25% NDP 16% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 55% CPC 25% NDP 16% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 14% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 14% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 14% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 56% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 56% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 56% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 56% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 57% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 58% CPC 27% NDP 15% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 58% CPC 27% NDP 15% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 16% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 59% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 60% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 15% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 65% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 65% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 65% CPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 65% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 65% CPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 54% LPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 47% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 45% CPC 45% NDP 10% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 55% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 71% CPC 23% NDP 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 80% CPC 17% NDP 3% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP 1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 94% CPC 5% NDP 1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 94% CPC 5% NDP 1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 98% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader