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Canada

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River


MP elect: Buckley Belanger (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River


Liberal Buckley Belanger
Conservative Jim Lemaigre
NDP Doug Racine

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River 65% ± 0%▲ LPC 25% ± 0%▼ CPC 9% ± 0%▼ NDP LPC 2025 65.2% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

LPC 65% ± 0% CPC 25% ± 0% NDP 9% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 44% CPC 27% NDP 22% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 48% CPC 25% NDP 21% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 54% CPC 25% NDP 16% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 55% CPC 25% NDP 16% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 55% CPC 25% NDP 16% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 55% CPC 25% NDP 16% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 55% CPC 25% NDP 16% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 55% CPC 25% NDP 16% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 14% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 14% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 14% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 56% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 56% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 56% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 56% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 57% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 56% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 58% CPC 27% NDP 15% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 58% CPC 27% NDP 15% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 16% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 59% CPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 60% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 15% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 65% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 94% CPC 5% NDP 1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 98% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 65% ± 0% 36.1% 46.3% 65.2% CPC 25% ± 0% 21.9% 23.6% 25.6% NDP 9% ± 0% 39.2% 24.0% 9.2% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.8% 3.1% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.