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Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East


Liberal Salma Zahid*
Conservative Belent Mathew
NDP Alyson Koa
PPC Peter Koubakis

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East 66% ± 8% LPC 27% ± 7% CPC 6% ± 4%▲ NDP LPC 2021 56.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East

LPC 66% ± 8% CPC 27% ± 7% NDP 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 54% CPC 31% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 57% CPC 29% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 59% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 59% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 59% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 64% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 66% CPC 26% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 66% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 66% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 66% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 55.1% 56.3% 66% ± 8% CPC 24.2% 25.3% 27% ± 7% NDP 11.9% 13.7% 6% ± 4% PPC 2.0% 4.3% 1% ± 2% GPC 3.6% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.