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Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East 39% ± 8%▼ LPC 38% ± 8% CPC 17% ± 5% NDP LPC 2021 56.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East 61% LPC 39% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East

LPC 39% ± 8% CPC 38% ± 8% NDP 17% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 45% CPC 35% NDP 15% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 45% CPC 35% NDP 15% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 15% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 46% CPC 34% NDP 15% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 15% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 16% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 46% CPC 33% NDP 16% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 43% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 44% CPC 36% NDP 14% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 45% CPC 35% NDP 14% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 45% CPC 36% NDP 13% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 44% CPC 36% NDP 13% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 13% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 12% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 41% CPC 38% NDP 15% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 42% CPC 36% NDP 16% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 15% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 44% CPC 35% NDP 15% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 16% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 41% CPC 38% NDP 16% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 40% CPC 38% NDP 17% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 39% CPC 38% NDP 17% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East

LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 55.1% 56.3% 39% ± 8% CPC 24.2% 25.3% 38% ± 8% NDP 11.9% 13.7% 17% ± 5% PPC 2.0% 4.3% 2% ± 3% GPC 3.6% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.