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Canada

Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East



Latest projection: March 16, 2025
LPC safe
Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East 57% ± 9%▲ LPC 29% ± 8%▼ CPC 9% ± 5%▼ NDP 3% ± 3% PPC LPC 2021 56.3% 338Canada vote projection | March 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East

LPC 57% ± 9% CPC 29% ± 8% NDP 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 42% CPC 36% NDP 16% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 15% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 44% CPC 35% NDP 15% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 16% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 41% CPC 38% NDP 16% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 40% CPC 38% NDP 17% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 39% CPC 38% NDP 17% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 LPC 39% CPC 38% NDP 19% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 LPC 39% CPC 38% NDP 18% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 38% LPC 38% NDP 19% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 LPC 39% CPC 38% NDP 18% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 17% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 17% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 44% CPC 35% NDP 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 51% CPC 32% NDP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 54% CPC 31% NDP 11% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 10% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 54% CPC 31% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 57% CPC 29% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 55.1% 56.3% 57% ± 9% CPC 24.2% 25.3% 29% ± 8% NDP 11.9% 13.7% 9% ± 5% PPC 2.0% 4.3% 3% ± 3% GPC 3.6% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.