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Canada

Fort McMurray—Cold Lake



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake


Liberal Kaitlyn Staines
Conservative Laila Goodridge*
NDP You-Ju Choi
Green Brian Deheer
PPC Alan Clarke
Independent Kulbir Chawla

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Fort McMurray—Cold Lake 73% ± 8% CPC 16% ± 6% LPC 4% ± 3% NDP 3% ± 4% PPC CPC 2021 67.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fort McMurray—Cold Lake >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake

LPC 16% ± 6% CPC 73% ± 8% NDP 4% ± 3% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP PPC April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 68% NDP 10% LPC 9% PPC 5% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 65% LPC 12% NDP 9% PPC 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 67% LPC 17% NDP 6% PPC 3% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 66% LPC 17% NDP 6% PPC 3% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 66% LPC 17% NDP 6% PPC 3% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 66% LPC 17% NDP 6% PPC 3% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 66% LPC 17% NDP 6% PPC 3% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 66% LPC 17% NDP 6% PPC 3% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 66% LPC 18% NDP 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 66% LPC 17% NDP 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 66% LPC 18% NDP 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 68% LPC 17% NDP 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 68% LPC 17% NDP 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 68% LPC 17% NDP 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 69% LPC 16% NDP 5% PPC 3% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 69% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 70% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 70% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 70% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 70% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 70% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 74% LPC 17% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 74% LPC 17% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 75% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 74% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 73% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 73% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 73% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 74% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 73% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 73% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 73% LPC 16% NDP 4% PPC 3% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 79.6% 67.8% 73% ± 8% LPC 9.5% 7.1% 16% ± 6% NDP 5.9% 10.1% 4% ± 3% PPC 3.3% 12.7% 3% ± 4% GPC 1.7% 1.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.