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Canada


Fort McMurray—Cold Lake


Latest projection: June 9, 2024
CPC safe
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake 71% ± 8%▼ CPC 9% ± 4% NDP 7% ± 6%▲ PPC 5% ± 3% LPC CPC 2021 67.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fort McMurray—Cold Lake >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% PPC Odds of winning | June 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake

LPC 5% ± 3% CPC 71% ± 8% NDP 9% ± 4% PPC 7% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP PPC June 9, 2024

Odds of winning | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP June 9, 2024

Recent electoral history | Fort McMurray—Cold Lake



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 79.6% 67.8% 71% ± 8% PPC 3.3% 12.7% 7% ± 6% NDP 5.9% 10.1% 9% ± 4% LPC 9.5% 7.1% 5% ± 3% GPC 1.7% 1.0% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.