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338Canada federal projection | British Columbia, 43 districts


Latest update: January 19, 2025
British Columbia 49% ± 6%▲ CPC 25% ± 5%▼ NDP 18% ± 4%▲ LPC 6% ± 3% GPC 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 19, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
British Columbia, 43 federal districts 37▲ [32-41] CPC 5 [2-7] NDP 1 [0-4] LPC 0▼ [0-1] GPC 338Canada seat projection | January 19, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | British Columbia

LPC 18% ± 4% CPC 49% ± 6% NDP 25% ± 5% GPC 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | British Columbia 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC January 19, 2025 2024-01-14 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 24% GPC 8% 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 CPC 40% NDP 26% LPC 25% GPC 7% 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 CPC 41% NDP 25% LPC 25% GPC 7% 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 CPC 41% NDP 25% LPC 24% GPC 7% 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 CPC 42% NDP 25% LPC 24% GPC 7% 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 CPC 43% NDP 24% LPC 23% GPC 7% 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 CPC 44% NDP 24% LPC 23% GPC 7% 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 CPC 43% NDP 25% LPC 23% GPC 7% 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 CPC 43% NDP 25% LPC 23% GPC 7% 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 CPC 43% NDP 25% LPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 CPC 44% NDP 25% LPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 CPC 44% NDP 26% LPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 CPC 43% NDP 25% LPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 CPC 44% NDP 25% LPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 CPC 44% NDP 25% LPC 21% GPC 7% 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 CPC 49% NDP 23% LPC 18% GPC 7% 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 CPC 51% NDP 23% LPC 17% GPC 7% 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 CPC 50% NDP 23% LPC 17% GPC 7% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 50% NDP 23% LPC 17% GPC 7% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 49% NDP 24% LPC 18% GPC 7% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 48% NDP 24% LPC 18% GPC 7% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 48% NDP 24% LPC 18% GPC 7% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 47% NDP 24% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 46% NDP 26% LPC 18% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 18% GPC 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 45% NDP 25% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 44% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 46% NDP 24% LPC 20% GPC 6% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 45% NDP 24% LPC 20% GPC 7% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 46% NDP 23% LPC 20% GPC 6% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 46% NDP 23% LPC 21% GPC 6% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 46% NDP 24% LPC 20% GPC 6% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 47% NDP 25% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 46% NDP 25% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 46% NDP 25% LPC 20% GPC 6% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 46% NDP 24% LPC 20% GPC 6% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 46% NDP 24% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 47% NDP 25% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 47% NDP 26% LPC 18% GPC 6% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 46% NDP 26% LPC 18% GPC 6% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 47% NDP 28% LPC 16% GPC 6% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 47% NDP 28% LPC 16% GPC 6% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 47% NDP 27% LPC 16% GPC 6% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 48% NDP 26% LPC 17% GPC 6% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 49% NDP 25% LPC 18% GPC 6% 2025-01-19 ▼ Trudeau resigns

Seat projection | British Columbia

LPC 1 [0-4] CPC 37 [32-41] NDP 5 [2-7] GPC 0 [0-1] Seat projection | British Columbia 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC January 19, 2025 2024-01-14 CPC 23 LPC 10 NDP 8 GPC 1 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 CPC 24 LPC 10 NDP 7 GPC 1 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 CPC 27 LPC 8 NDP 6 GPC 1 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 CPC 27 LPC 8 NDP 6 GPC 1 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 CPC 29 NDP 6 LPC 6 GPC 1 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 CPC 32 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 CPC 36 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 CPC 37 NDP 4 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 CPC 37 NDP 4 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 36 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 36 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 36 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 35 NDP 5 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 35 NDP 5 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 34 NDP 6 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 34 NDP 6 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 34 NDP 6 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 34 NDP 5 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 33 NDP 5 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 33 NDP 5 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 33 NDP 5 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 33 NDP 5 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 35 NDP 5 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 34 NDP 6 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 34 NDP 5 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 34 NDP 5 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 35 NDP 5 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 35 NDP 5 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 36 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 35 NDP 6 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 35 NDP 6 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 35 NDP 6 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 35 NDP 6 LPC 1 GPC 1 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 36 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 1 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 37 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 0 2025-01-19 ▼ Trudeau resigns

Seat projection | British Columbia


Latest update: January 19, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
23 9 3 2 37 14
1 2 1 1 5 13
0 0 1 0 1 15
0 0 0 0 0 1

List of electoral districts | British Columbia


Latest update: January 19, 2025
Electoral district Transposed
2021 winner		 Latest projection
59001 Abbotsford—South Langley CPC safe
59002 Burnaby Central CPC leaning
59003 Burnaby North—Seymour CPC likely
59004 Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe
59005 Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe
59006 Cloverdale—Langley City CPC safe
59007 Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe
59008 Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC safe
59009 Courtenay—Alberni CPC likely
59010 Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC likely
59011 Delta CPC safe
59012 Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Toss up CPC/NDP
59013 Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC likely
59014 Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe
59015 Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC safe
59016 Kelowna CPC safe
59017 Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC safe
59018 Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC safe
59019 Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely
59020 New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville NDP leaning
59021 North Island—Powell River CPC safe
59022 North Vancouver—Capilano CPC likely
59023 Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC safe
59024 Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC safe
59025 Port Moody—Coquitlam CPC safe
59026 Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe
59027 Richmond Centre—Marpole CPC safe
59028 Richmond East—Steveston CPC safe
59029 Saanich—Gulf Islands Toss up CPC/GPC
59030 Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe
59031 Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC likely
59032 South Surrey—White Rock CPC safe
59033 Surrey Centre Toss up LPC/CPC
59034 Surrey Newton LPC leaning
59035 Vancouver Centre CPC leaning
59036 Vancouver East NDP safe
59037 Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby CPC leaning
59038 Vancouver Granville CPC likely
59039 Vancouver Kingsway NDP likely
59040 Vancouver Quadra CPC likely
59041 Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC safe
59042 Victoria NDP likely
59043 West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country CPC safe