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338Canada federal projection | British Columbia, 43 districts


Latest update: March 23, 2025
British Columbia 41% ± 6% CPC 37% ± 6% LPC 15% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 3% GPC 338Canada federal vote projection | March 23, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
British Columbia, 43 federal districts 22 [17-26] CPC 19 [15-25] LPC 1 [0-2] NDP 1 [0-1] GPC 338Canada seat projection | March 23, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Federal vote projection | British Columbia

LPC 37% ± 6% CPC 41% ± 6% NDP 15% ± 4% GPC 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | British Columbia 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC March 23, 2025 2024-01-14 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 24% GPC 8% 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 CPC 40% NDP 26% LPC 25% GPC 7% 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 CPC 41% NDP 25% LPC 25% GPC 7% 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 CPC 41% NDP 25% LPC 24% GPC 7% 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 CPC 42% NDP 25% LPC 24% GPC 7% 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 CPC 43% NDP 24% LPC 23% GPC 7% 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 CPC 44% NDP 24% LPC 23% GPC 7% 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 CPC 43% NDP 25% LPC 23% GPC 7% 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 CPC 43% NDP 25% LPC 23% GPC 7% 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 CPC 43% NDP 25% LPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 CPC 44% NDP 25% LPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 CPC 44% NDP 26% LPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 CPC 43% NDP 25% LPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 CPC 44% NDP 25% LPC 22% GPC 7% 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 CPC 44% NDP 25% LPC 21% GPC 7% 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 CPC 49% NDP 23% LPC 18% GPC 7% 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 CPC 51% NDP 23% LPC 17% GPC 7% 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 CPC 50% NDP 23% LPC 17% GPC 7% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 50% NDP 23% LPC 17% GPC 7% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 49% NDP 24% LPC 18% GPC 7% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 48% NDP 24% LPC 18% GPC 7% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 48% NDP 24% LPC 18% GPC 7% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 47% NDP 24% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 46% NDP 26% LPC 18% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 18% GPC 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 45% NDP 25% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 44% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 46% NDP 24% LPC 20% GPC 6% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 45% NDP 24% LPC 20% GPC 7% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 46% NDP 23% LPC 20% GPC 6% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 46% NDP 23% LPC 21% GPC 6% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 46% NDP 24% LPC 20% GPC 6% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 47% NDP 25% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 46% NDP 25% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 46% NDP 25% LPC 20% GPC 6% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 46% NDP 24% LPC 20% GPC 6% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 46% NDP 24% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 47% NDP 25% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 47% NDP 26% LPC 18% GPC 6% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 46% NDP 26% LPC 18% GPC 6% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 47% NDP 28% LPC 16% GPC 6% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 47% NDP 28% LPC 16% GPC 6% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 47% NDP 27% LPC 16% GPC 6% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 48% NDP 26% LPC 17% GPC 6% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 49% NDP 25% LPC 18% GPC 6% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 49% NDP 24% LPC 18% GPC 6% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 48% NDP 24% LPC 19% GPC 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 47% NDP 23% LPC 22% GPC 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 45% LPC 25% NDP 22% GPC 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 44% LPC 27% NDP 20% GPC 6% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 40% LPC 29% NDP 21% GPC 6% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 40% LPC 30% NDP 21% GPC 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 41% LPC 31% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 41% LPC 36% NDP 15% GPC 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2025-03-23 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Federal seat projection | British Columbia

LPC 19 [15-25] CPC 22 [17-26] NDP 1 [0-2] GPC 1 [0-1] Seat projection | British Columbia 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC March 23, 2025 2024-01-14 CPC 23 LPC 10 NDP 8 GPC 1 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 CPC 24 LPC 10 NDP 7 GPC 1 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 CPC 27 LPC 8 NDP 6 GPC 1 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 CPC 27 LPC 8 NDP 6 GPC 1 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 CPC 29 NDP 6 LPC 6 GPC 1 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 CPC 31 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 CPC 32 NDP 6 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 CPC 36 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 CPC 37 NDP 4 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 CPC 37 NDP 4 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 36 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 36 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 36 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 35 NDP 5 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 35 NDP 5 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 34 NDP 6 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 34 NDP 6 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 34 NDP 6 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 34 NDP 5 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 33 NDP 5 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 33 NDP 5 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 33 NDP 5 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 33 NDP 5 LPC 4 GPC 1 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 35 NDP 5 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 34 NDP 6 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 33 NDP 6 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 34 NDP 5 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 34 NDP 5 LPC 3 GPC 1 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 35 NDP 5 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 35 NDP 5 LPC 2 GPC 1 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 36 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 35 NDP 6 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 35 NDP 6 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 35 NDP 6 LPC 1 GPC 1 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 35 NDP 6 LPC 1 GPC 1 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 36 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 1 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 37 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 0 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 37 NDP 5 LPC 1 GPC 0 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 37 NDP 4 LPC 2 GPC 0 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 34 NDP 4 LPC 4 GPC 1 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 31 LPC 7 NDP 4 GPC 1 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 29 LPC 9 NDP 4 GPC 1 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 24 LPC 13 NDP 5 GPC 1 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 23 LPC 14 NDP 5 GPC 1 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 23 LPC 14 NDP 5 GPC 1 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 22 LPC 19 NDP 1 GPC 1 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 22 LPC 19 NDP 1 GPC 1 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 22 LPC 19 NDP 1 GPC 1 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 22 LPC 19 NDP 1 GPC 1 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 22 LPC 19 NDP 1 GPC 1 2025-03-23 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Seat projection | British Columbia


Latest update: March 23, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
10 8 2 2 22 14
9 7 2 1 19 15
0 0 1 0 1 13
0 0 0 1 1 1

List of electoral districts | British Columbia


Latest update: March 23, 2025
Electoral district Transposed
2021 winner		 Latest projection
59001 Abbotsford—South Langley CPC likely
59002 Burnaby Central LPC likely
59003 Burnaby North—Seymour LPC safe
59004 Cariboo—Prince George CPC safe
59005 Chilliwack—Hope CPC safe
59006 Cloverdale—Langley City CPC leaning
59007 Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies CPC safe
59008 Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam LPC likely
59009 Courtenay—Alberni CPC likely
59010 Cowichan—Malahat—Langford CPC likely
59011 Delta LPC likely
59012 Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Toss up LPC/CPC
59013 Fleetwood—Port Kells LPC safe
59014 Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies CPC safe
59015 Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola CPC safe
59016 Kelowna CPC likely
59017 Langley Township—Fraser Heights CPC leaning
59018 Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford CPC likely
59019 Nanaimo—Ladysmith CPC likely
59020 New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville LPC leaning
59021 North Island—Powell River CPC safe
59022 North Vancouver—Capilano LPC safe
59023 Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna CPC likely
59024 Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC likely
59025 Port Moody—Coquitlam Toss up LPC/CPC
59026 Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies CPC safe
59027 Richmond Centre—Marpole LPC leaning
59028 Richmond East—Steveston LPC likely
59029 Saanich—Gulf Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC
59030 Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC safe
59031 Skeena—Bulkley Valley CPC safe
59032 South Surrey—White Rock Toss up LPC/CPC
59033 Surrey Centre LPC safe
59034 Surrey Newton LPC safe
59035 Vancouver Centre LPC safe
59036 Vancouver East NDP leaning
59037 Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby LPC safe
59038 Vancouver Granville LPC safe
59039 Vancouver Kingsway LPC likely
59040 Vancouver Quadra LPC safe
59041 Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee CPC safe
59042 Victoria LPC likely
59043 West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country LPC likely