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Canada

Beaches—East York


MP: Nathaniel Erskine-Smith (LPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Beaches—East York


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 67% ± 7% 57.2% 56.6% 67.7% CPC 23% ± 6% 14.1% 14.4% 23.5% NDP 8% ± 4% 21.4% 22.5% 6.9% GPC 1% ± 2% 5.9% 2.7% 1.3% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.5% 3.2% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Beaches—East York


Beaches—East York 67% ± 7%▼ LPC 23% ± 6% CPC 8% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 67.7% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Beaches—East York >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Beaches—East York

LPC 67% ± 7% CPC 23% ± 6% NDP 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Beaches—East York 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 38% NDP 27% CPC 24% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 40% NDP 26% CPC 24% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 41% NDP 25% CPC 23% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 43% NDP 24% CPC 22% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 47% NDP 22% CPC 21% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 51% CPC 20% NDP 18% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 54% CPC 20% NDP 16% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 56% CPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 55% CPC 20% NDP 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 57% CPC 19% NDP 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 60% CPC 18% NDP 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 60% CPC 18% NDP 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 60% CPC 18% NDP 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 60% CPC 18% NDP 13% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 60% CPC 18% NDP 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 60% CPC 18% NDP 13% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 11% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 63% CPC 18% NDP 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 64% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 64% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 65% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 65% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 66% CPC 19% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 69% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 68% CPC 17% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 68% CPC 17% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 68% CPC 17% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 68% CPC 17% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 68% CPC 17% NDP 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 66% CPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 66% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 66% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 66% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 66% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 66% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 66% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 66% CPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 67% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 68% CPC 24% NDP 7% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 68% CPC 24% NDP 7% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 68% CPC 24% NDP 7% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 68% CPC 24% NDP 7% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 68% CPC 24% NDP 7% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 68% CPC 23% NDP 7% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 68% CPC 23% NDP 7% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 68% CPC 23% NDP 7% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 68% CPC 23% NDP 8% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 67% CPC 23% NDP 8% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Beaches—East York

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 98% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader