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Canada

Beaches—East York



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Beaches—East York


Liberal Nathaniel Erskine-Smith*
Conservative Jocelyne Poirier
NDP Shannon Devine
Green Jack Pennings
Marxist-Leninist Steve Rutchinski
Communist Elizabeth Rowley
Independent Diane Joseph

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Beaches—East York 68% ± 8% LPC 17% ± 5% CPC 9% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 56.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Beaches—East York >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Beaches—East York

LPC 68% ± 8% CPC 17% ± 5% NDP 9% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Beaches—East York 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 55% CPC 20% NDP 16% GPC 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 57% CPC 19% NDP 14% GPC 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 60% CPC 18% NDP 13% GPC 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 60% CPC 18% NDP 13% GPC 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 60% CPC 18% NDP 13% GPC 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 60% CPC 18% NDP 13% GPC 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 60% CPC 18% NDP 13% GPC 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 60% CPC 18% NDP 13% GPC 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 11% GPC 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 11% GPC 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 63% CPC 18% NDP 11% GPC 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 64% CPC 18% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 64% CPC 18% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 65% CPC 18% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 65% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 66% CPC 19% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 69% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 68% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 68% CPC 17% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 68% CPC 17% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 68% CPC 17% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 68% CPC 17% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Beaches—East York

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Beaches—East York



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 57.2% 56.6% 68% ± 8% CPC 14.1% 14.4% 17% ± 5% NDP 21.4% 22.5% 9% ± 5% GPC 5.9% 2.7% 4% ± 3% PPC 1.5% 3.2% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.