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Canada

Beaches—East York



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC likely
Beaches—East York 40% ± 7% LPC 26% ± 6% NDP 23% ± 6% CPC 9% ± 5% GPC LPC 2021 56.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Beaches—East York 99%▼ LPC 1%▲ NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Beaches—East York

LPC 40% ± 7% CPC 23% ± 6% NDP 26% ± 6% GPC 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Beaches—East York 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 43% NDP 25% CPC 20% GPC 10% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 43% NDP 25% CPC 20% GPC 10% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 44% NDP 24% CPC 20% GPC 10% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 44% NDP 25% CPC 20% GPC 10% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 44% NDP 24% CPC 20% GPC 10% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 44% NDP 25% CPC 19% GPC 10% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 43% NDP 26% CPC 19% GPC 10% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 44% NDP 23% CPC 22% GPC 8% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 45% NDP 22% CPC 22% GPC 8% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 45% NDP 22% CPC 22% GPC 8% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 44% CPC 22% NDP 22% GPC 8% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 44% CPC 22% NDP 22% GPC 8% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 44% NDP 23% CPC 22% GPC 9% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 44% NDP 23% CPC 22% GPC 9% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 44% NDP 22% CPC 21% GPC 9% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 46% NDP 22% CPC 21% GPC 9% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 46% CPC 22% NDP 21% GPC 9% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 45% CPC 22% NDP 21% GPC 9% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 45% CPC 23% NDP 20% GPC 10% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 44% CPC 24% NDP 20% GPC 9% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 43% CPC 23% NDP 22% GPC 9% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 42% NDP 24% CPC 23% GPC 9% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 42% NDP 24% CPC 23% GPC 9% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 43% NDP 24% CPC 22% GPC 9% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 42% NDP 24% CPC 22% GPC 9% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 42% NDP 24% CPC 22% GPC 9% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 43% NDP 24% CPC 22% GPC 9% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 44% NDP 24% CPC 21% GPC 9% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 42% NDP 24% CPC 22% GPC 9% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 41% NDP 25% CPC 23% GPC 9% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 40% NDP 26% CPC 23% GPC 9% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 40% NDP 26% CPC 23% GPC 9% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Beaches—East York

LPC 99% CPC <1% NDP 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Beaches—East York



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 57.2% 56.6% 40% ± 7% NDP 21.4% 22.5% 26% ± 6% CPC 14.1% 14.4% 23% ± 6% PPC 1.5% 3.2% 2% ± 2% GPC 5.9% 2.7% 9% ± 5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.