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Canada

Beaches—East York



Latest projection: March 16, 2025
LPC safe
Beaches—East York 57% ± 8%▲ LPC 19% ± 6%▼ CPC 14% ± 5%▼ NDP 7% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 56.6% 338Canada vote projection | March 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Beaches—East York >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Beaches—East York

LPC 57% ± 8% CPC 19% ± 6% NDP 14% ± 5% GPC 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Beaches—East York 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 LPC 42% NDP 24% CPC 23% GPC 9% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 43% NDP 24% CPC 22% GPC 9% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 42% NDP 24% CPC 22% GPC 9% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 42% NDP 24% CPC 22% GPC 9% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 43% NDP 24% CPC 22% GPC 9% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 44% NDP 24% CPC 21% GPC 9% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 42% NDP 24% CPC 22% GPC 9% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 41% NDP 25% CPC 23% GPC 9% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 40% NDP 26% CPC 23% GPC 9% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 40% NDP 26% CPC 23% GPC 9% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 LPC 38% NDP 28% CPC 24% GPC 8% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 LPC 38% NDP 28% CPC 24% GPC 9% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 LPC 37% NDP 28% CPC 24% GPC 8% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 LPC 38% NDP 27% CPC 24% GPC 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 40% NDP 26% CPC 24% GPC 8% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 41% NDP 25% CPC 23% GPC 8% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 43% NDP 24% CPC 22% GPC 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 47% NDP 22% CPC 21% GPC 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 51% CPC 20% NDP 18% GPC 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 54% CPC 20% NDP 16% GPC 8% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 56% CPC 19% NDP 15% GPC 7% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 55% CPC 20% NDP 16% GPC 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 57% CPC 19% NDP 14% GPC 7% 2025-03-16 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Beaches—East York

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 99% NDP 1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 LPC 96% NDP 3% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 LPC 97% NDP 3% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 LPC 95% NDP 5% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 LPC 98% NDP 1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 99% NDP 1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Beaches—East York



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 57.2% 56.6% 57% ± 8% CPC 14.1% 14.4% 19% ± 6% NDP 21.4% 22.5% 14% ± 5% GPC 5.9% 2.7% 7% ± 4% PPC 1.5% 3.2% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.