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Canada


Madawaska–Restigouche (federal)


MP: René Arseneault (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

Toss up LPC/CPC
Madawaska–Restigouche 43% ± 8% 41% ± 8% 8% ± 4% 4% ± 4% 4% ± 4% LPC 2021 55.22% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Madawaska–Restigouche 63%▼ 37%▲ <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Madawaska–Restigouche

LPC 43% ± 8% CPC 41% ± 8% NDP 8% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Madawaska–Restigouche 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Madawaska–Restigouche

LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Madawaska–Restigouche



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 55.7% 50.3% 55.22% 43% ± 8% CPC 16.5% 28.4% 25.74% 41% ± 8% PPC 0.0% 0.0% 6.19% 4% ± 4% NDP 25.9% 6.4% 6.09% 8% ± 4% GPC 1.9% 14.9% 2.58% 4% ± 4%