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Canada

Madawaska—Restigouche


MP: Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault (LPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
LPC likely

Recent electoral history | Madawaska—Restigouche


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 58% ± 9% 49.6% 52.0% 55.2% CPC 36% ± 9% 29.8% 27.8% 39.6% NDP 3% ± 3% 6.4% 6.2% 3.0% PPC 2% ± 3% 0.4% 7.5% 2.2% GPC 0% ± 0% 13.8% 2.7% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Madawaska—Restigouche


Madawaska—Restigouche 58% ± 9% LPC 36% ± 9% CPC 3% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 55.2% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Madawaska—Restigouche >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Madawaska—Restigouche

LPC 58% ± 9% CPC 36% ± 9% NDP 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Madawaska—Restigouche 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 45% LPC 37% NDP 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 45% LPC 37% NDP 8% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 8% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 43% LPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 47% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 52% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 53% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 56% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 61% CPC 26% NDP 4% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 61% CPC 26% NDP 4% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 4% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 4% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 59% CPC 29% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 60% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 60% CPC 30% NDP 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 60% CPC 30% NDP 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 60% CPC 30% NDP 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 60% CPC 30% NDP 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 60% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 63% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 63% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 63% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 63% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 63% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 63% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 62% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 61% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 61% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 61% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 61% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 62% CPC 33% NDP 3% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 56% CPC 39% NDP 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 57% CPC 38% NDP 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 58% CPC 37% NDP 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 58% CPC 36% NDP 3% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 58% CPC 36% NDP 3% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Madawaska—Restigouche

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader