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Canada

Madawaska—Restigouche



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC leaning
Madawaska—Restigouche 42% ± 9%▲ CPC 38% ± 8% LPC 8% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 52.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Madawaska—Restigouche 74%▲ CPC 26%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Madawaska—Restigouche

LPC 38% ± 8% CPC 42% ± 9% NDP 8% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 3% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Madawaska—Restigouche 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 6% GPC 3% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 3% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 7% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 7% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 7% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 45% CPC 36% NDP 7% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 46% CPC 35% NDP 7% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 46% CPC 35% NDP 7% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 7% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 7% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 7% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 42% CPC 39% NDP 7% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 41% CPC 41% NDP 6% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 41% CPC 41% NDP 6% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 6% PPC 4% GPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 6% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 7% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 7% GPC 3% PPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 7% GPC 3% PPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 7% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 7% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 41% CPC 40% NDP 8% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 42% CPC 39% NDP 8% PPC 3% GPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 40% LPC 40% NDP 8% GPC 3% PPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 8% GPC 3% PPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 41% LPC 38% NDP 8% GPC 3% PPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 42% LPC 38% NDP 8% GPC 3% PPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Madawaska—Restigouche

LPC 26% CPC 74% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Madawaska—Restigouche



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.6% 52.0% 38% ± 8% CPC 29.8% 27.8% 42% ± 9% PPC 0.4% 7.5% 3% ± 4% NDP 6.4% 6.2% 8% ± 4% GPC 13.8% 2.7% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.