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Canada

Madawaska—Restigouche


MP elect: Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Madawaska—Restigouche


Liberal Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault
Conservative Michel Morin
NDP Daisy Petersen
PPC Nancy Mercier

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Madawaska—Restigouche 55% ± 7% LPC 40% ± 7%▲ CPC 3% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 55.2% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Madawaska—Restigouche 99%▼ LPC 1%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Madawaska—Restigouche

LPC 55% ± 7% CPC 40% ± 7% NDP 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Madawaska—Restigouche 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 45% LPC 37% NDP 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 45% LPC 37% NDP 8% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 8% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 43% LPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 47% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 52% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 53% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 56% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 61% CPC 26% NDP 4% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 61% CPC 26% NDP 4% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 4% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 4% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 59% CPC 29% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 60% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 60% CPC 30% NDP 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 60% CPC 30% NDP 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 60% CPC 30% NDP 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 60% CPC 30% NDP 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 61% CPC 29% NDP 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 60% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 63% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 63% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 63% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 63% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 63% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 63% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 62% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 61% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 61% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 61% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 61% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 62% CPC 33% NDP 3% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Madawaska—Restigouche

LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Madawaska—Restigouche



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 55% ± 7% 49.6% 52.0% 55.2% CPC 40% ± 7% 29.8% 27.8% 39.6% NDP 3% ± 2% 6.4% 6.2% 3.0% PPC 2% ± 2% 0.4% 7.5% 2.2% GPC 0% ± 0% 13.8% 2.7% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.