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Canada


Saint John—St. Croix


Latest projection: June 9, 2024
CPC safe
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Saint John—St. Croix 62% ± 8%▼ CPC 20% ± 6%▲ LPC 11% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC CPC 2021 47.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint John—St. Croix >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint John—St. Croix

LPC 20% ± 6% CPC 62% ± 8% NDP 11% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Saint John—St. Croix 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC June 9, 2024

Odds of winning | Saint John—St. Croix

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP June 9, 2024

Recent electoral history | Saint John—St. Croix



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 46.7% 47.0% 62% ± 8% LPC 27.5% 28.1% 20% ± 6% NDP 9.1% 13.1% 11% ± 5% PPC 2.9% 7.6% 3% ± 4% GPC 12.7% 4.0% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.