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Saint John—St. Croix



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Saint John—St. Croix


Liberal Karen Ludwig
Conservative John Williamson*
NDP Andrew Hill
Green Gerald Irish

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Saint John—St. Croix 50% ± 9% CPC 42% ± 9% LPC 5% ± 4% NDP CPC 2021 47.0% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint John—St. Croix 85%▼ CPC 15%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint John—St. Croix

LPC 42% ± 9% CPC 50% ± 9% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Saint John—St. Croix 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 49% LPC 30% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 47% LPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 46% LPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 45% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 43% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 43% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 48% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 50% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 50% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Saint John—St. Croix

LPC 15% CPC 85% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Saint John—St. Croix



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 46.7% 47.0% 50% ± 9% LPC 27.5% 28.1% 42% ± 9% NDP 9.1% 13.1% 5% ± 4% GPC 12.7% 4.0% 2% ± 2% PPC 2.9% 7.6% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.