logo
Canada


Calgary Nose Hill (federal)


MP: Michelle Rempel Garner (CPC)


Latest projection: April 14, 2024

CPC safe hold
Calgary Nose Hill 62% ± 7%▼ 19% ± 5%▲ 15% ± 4% CPC 2021 55.56% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Calgary Nose Hill >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 14, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Calgary Nose Hill

LPC 15% ± 4% CPC 62% ± 7% NDP 19% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Calgary Nose Hill 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | Calgary Nose Hill

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Calgary Nose Hill



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 60.0% 69.8% 55.56% 62% ± 7% LPC 26.9% 15.7% 20.46% 15% ± 4% NDP 8.9% 9.6% 16.87% 19% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 2.0% 4.61% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.5% 2.8% 1.26% 2% ± 2%