logo
Canada

Recent electoral history | Calgary McKnight


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 46% ± 8% 30.8% 43.8% 46.0% CPC 46% ± 8% 49.8% 34.2% 49.1% NDP 4% ± 3% 14.5% 16.2% 2.8% PPC 1% ± 2% 1.5% 3.9% 0.8%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Canada flag

338Canada Calgary McKnight projection

Latest update: February 1, 2026

Calgary McKnight 38% 54% 46% ± 8% LPC 38% 53% 46% ± 8% CPC 1% 7% 4% ± 3% NDP CPC 2025 49.1% 338Canada vote projection | February 1, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary McKnight 53%▲ LPC 47%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 1, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Calgary McKnight

LPC 46% ± 8% CPC 46% ± 8% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Calgary McKnight 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND February 1, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 50% CPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 50% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 50% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 49% CPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 47% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 5% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 46% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2026-02-01

Odds of winning | Calgary McKnight

LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 1, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2026-02-01


Flag of Canada

Demographic data | Calgary McKnight

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 55.7% English 18.7% Punjabi 4.2% Tagalog 4.1% Urdu 2.2% Arabic 1.8% Vietnamese 1.5% SpanishCalgary McKnightSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 17.6% No diploma 29.6% High school 5.5% Trade 16.1% College / Cégep 3.9% Some university 18.7% Bachelor's 8.7% PostgraduateCalgary McKnightSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 76.9% Visible minority 23.1% Not visible minority 39.1% South Asian 10.7% Filipino 8.4% Black 5.4% Arab 3.7% Southeast Asian 2.5% ChineseCalgary McKnightSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 21.0% Sikh 19.9% Muslim 17.0% No Religion 16.4% Catholic 7.3% Christian (n.o.s.) 6.0% Hindu 2.4% Buddhist 2.1% Other ChristianCalgary McKnightSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 73.8% Owner 26.2% RenterCalgary McKnightSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 55.5% Employed 34.7% Not in labour force 9.8% UnemployedCalgary McKnightSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 97.4% Non-Indigenous 2.6% Indigenous identity 1.4% First Nations 1.1% Metis 0.1% Inuk 0.1% Multiple 0.1% OthersCalgary McKnightSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 84.8% Car / truck / van 11.6% Public transit 2.1% Other 1.4% Walking 0.1% BicycleCalgary McKnightSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.