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Canada

Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC leaning
Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby 36% ± 7% CPC 32% ± 7% LPC 28% ± 7% NDP LPC 2021 42.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby 73%▼ CPC 22% LPC 5%▲ NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby

LPC 32% ± 7% CPC 36% ± 7% NDP 28% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 39% LPC 30% NDP 26% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 38% LPC 31% NDP 27% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 37% LPC 32% NDP 27% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 36% LPC 32% NDP 27% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 36% LPC 33% NDP 27% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 35% LPC 33% NDP 27% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 34% LPC 33% NDP 28% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 33% LPC 33% NDP 28% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 33% LPC 33% NDP 28% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 33% CPC 33% NDP 28% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 34% CPC 33% NDP 28% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 33% CPC 33% NDP 28% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 34% CPC 33% NDP 28% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 33% CPC 33% NDP 28% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 33% CPC 33% NDP 29% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 34% CPC 33% NDP 28% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 35% CPC 34% NDP 26% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 35% CPC 33% NDP 26% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 36% CPC 34% NDP 25% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 37% CPC 34% NDP 25% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 36% CPC 34% NDP 26% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 35% LPC 33% NDP 27% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 35% LPC 33% NDP 28% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 34% CPC 34% NDP 28% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 34% CPC 33% NDP 28% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 34% CPC 34% NDP 28% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 35% CPC 34% NDP 26% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 36% CPC 34% NDP 26% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 35% LPC 34% NDP 26% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 36% LPC 33% NDP 26% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 36% LPC 32% NDP 28% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 36% LPC 32% NDP 28% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby

LPC 22% CPC 73% NDP 5% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 93% LPC 6% NDP 1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 91% LPC 8% NDP 1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 83% LPC 16% NDP 1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 76% LPC 22% NDP 2% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 69% LPC 28% NDP 2% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 63% LPC 35% NDP 2% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 58% LPC 36% NDP 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 50% LPC 42% NDP 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 7% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 7% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 9% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 52% CPC 42% NDP 6% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 55% CPC 44% NDP 1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 62% CPC 36% NDP 1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 63% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 60% CPC 39% NDP 1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 64% LPC 34% NDP 2% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 59% LPC 38% NDP 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 54% CPC 41% NDP 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 53% CPC 45% NDP 1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP 1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 57% LPC 42% NDP 1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 66% LPC 33% NDP 1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 74% LPC 22% NDP 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 73% LPC 22% NDP 5% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 34.0% 42.3% 32% ± 7% NDP 26.4% 31.1% 28% ± 7% CPC 32.4% 21.9% 36% ± 7% PPC 1.3% 3.0% 1% ± 2% GPC 5.7% 1.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.