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Canada

Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby


MP elect: Gregor Robertson (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby


Liberal Gregor Robertson
Conservative Avi Nayyar
NDP Manoj Bhangu
Green Alexander Dow
PPC Desiderio Magtanggol Reyes

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby 52% ± 7% LPC 36% ± 6% CPC 10% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 52.3% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby

LPC 52% ± 7% CPC 36% ± 6% NDP 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 37% LPC 31% NDP 28% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 38% LPC 32% NDP 27% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 37% LPC 33% NDP 26% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 36% LPC 34% NDP 26% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 38% CPC 35% NDP 24% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 41% CPC 33% NDP 23% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 44% CPC 32% NDP 20% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 48% CPC 28% NDP 20% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 48% CPC 28% NDP 20% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 50% CPC 29% NDP 18% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 56% CPC 28% NDP 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 56% CPC 28% NDP 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 56% CPC 28% NDP 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 56% CPC 28% NDP 13% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 64% CPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 65% CPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 65% CPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 65% CPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 64% CPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 50% CPC 31% NDP 18% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 50% CPC 31% NDP 17% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 17% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 53% CPC 29% NDP 17% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 52% CPC 29% NDP 18% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 52% CPC 29% NDP 18% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 52% CPC 29% NDP 18% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 52% CPC 29% NDP 18% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 51% CPC 29% NDP 18% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 18% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 18% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 52% CPC 30% NDP 17% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 52% CPC 30% NDP 17% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 52% CPC 30% NDP 17% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 52% CPC 30% NDP 16% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 53% CPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 54% CPC 30% NDP 14% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 54% CPC 30% NDP 14% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 14% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 55% CPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 57% CPC 30% NDP 12% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 83% LPC 15% NDP 3% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 80% LPC 19% NDP 1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 77% LPC 22% NDP 1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 61% LPC 38% NDP 1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 52% ± 7% 34.0% 42.3% 52.3% CPC 36% ± 6% 32.4% 21.9% 35.7% NDP 10% ± 4% 26.4% 31.1% 9.8% GPC 1% ± 1% 5.7% 1.0% 1.3% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.3% 3.0% 0.9%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.