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Newfoundland & labrador

Welcome to 338Canada Newfoundland & Labrador!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | Newfoundland & Labrador


Latest update: May 27, 2024

Popular vote projection 40% ± 6% LIB 40% ± 6% PC 16% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 1% IND338Canada Popular vote projection | May 27, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 21 seats for a majority 18▼ [12-23] LIB 17▲ [12-23] PC 3 [2-4] NDP 2 [2-2] IND 338Canada Newfoundland & Labrador | May 27, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 54%▼ LIB 41%▲ PC 5%▲ Tie <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 27, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 36% LIB min. 28% PC min. 17% LIB maj. 13% PC maj. 5% Tie Odds of outcome | May 27, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Newfoundland & Labrador | Popular vote projection

LIB PC NDP NLA LIB 40% ± 6% PC 40% ± 6% NDP 16% ± 4% NLA 0% ± 0% Popular vote projection % 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 May 27, 2024 2021-04-07 LIB 48% PC 38% NDP 8% NLA 0% 2021-04-07 2022-08-20 LIB 42% PC 40% NDP 13% NLA 0% 2022-08-20 2023-03-10 LIB 45% PC 35% NDP 15% NLA 0% 2023-03-10 2023-06-28 LIB 48% PC 32% NDP 16% NLA 0% 2023-06-28 2023-09-02 LIB 44% PC 34% NDP 18% NLA 0% 2023-09-02 2023-10-17 LIB 40% PC 37% NDP 19% NLA 0% 2023-10-17 2024-01-30 LIB 41% PC 37% NDP 19% NLA 0% 2024-01-30 2024-03-09 LIB 42% PC 34% NDP 20% NLA 0% 2024-03-09 2024-04-15 LIB 42% PC 38% NDP 16% NLA 0% 2024-04-15 2024-05-27 LIB 40% PC 40% NDP 16% NLA 0% 2024-05-27

Newfoundland & Labrador | Seat projection

LIB 18 [12-23] PC 17 [12-23] NDP 3 [2-4] IND 2 [2-2] Seat projection 30 20 10 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP IND Majority: 21 seats May 27, 2024 2021-04-07 LIB 22 PC 13 NDP 2 2021-04-07 2022-08-20 LIB 17 PC 17 NDP 3 2022-08-20 2023-03-10 LIB 21 PC 13 NDP 3 2023-03-10 2023-06-28 LIB 26 PC 9 NDP 3 2023-06-28 2023-09-02 LIB 22 PC 13 NDP 3 2023-09-02 2023-10-17 LIB 18 PC 16 NDP 4 2023-10-17 2024-01-30 LIB 19 PC 15 NDP 4 2024-01-30 2024-03-09 LIB 21 PC 13 NDP 4 2024-03-09 2024-04-15 LIB 20 PC 15 NDP 3 2024-04-15 2024-05-27 LIB 18 PC 17 NDP 3 2024-05-27

Newfoundland & Labrador | Odds of winning the most seats

LIB 54% PC 41% Tie 5% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP NLA Tie May 27, 2024 2021-04-07 LIB 79% PC 14% Tie 7% NLA <1% NDP <1% 2021-04-07 2022-08-20 PC 46% LIB 46% Tie 8% NLA <1% NDP <1% 2022-08-20 2023-03-10 LIB 81% PC 14% Tie 6% NLA <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-10 2023-06-28 LIB 99% Tie 1% PC <1% NLA <1% NDP <1% 2023-06-28 2023-09-02 LIB 85% PC 11% Tie 4% NLA <1% NDP <1% 2023-09-02 2023-10-17 LIB 55% PC 35% Tie 9% NLA <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-17 2024-01-30 LIB 66% PC 23% Tie 10% NLA <1% NDP <1% 2024-01-30 2024-03-09 LIB 85% PC 9% Tie 6% NLA <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-09 2024-04-15 LIB 67% PC 29% Tie 4% NLA <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-15 2024-05-27 LIB 54% PC 41% Tie 5% NLA <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-27

Newfoundland & Labrador | Odds of election outcome

LIB majority 17% LIB minority 36% PC majority 13% PC minority 28% Tie 5% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB majority LIB minority PC majority PC minority Tie