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Newfoundland & labrador

Welcome to 338Canada Newfoundland & Labrador!


338Canada is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data.

This website is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L’actualité, as well as a regular contributor to Politico Canada and The Walrus.

He also appears as a panelist on CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter to stay updated — and enjoy the website!



Newfoundland & Labrador provincial polls



LIB 46% ± 6%▲
PC 38% ± 6%▼
NDP 13% ± 3%▼

LIB PC NDP Voting intentions % 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-07-01 2026► 2026-01-01 Election 2025 October 1, 2025 2023-03-10 LIB 51% PC 34% NDP 9% 2023-03-10 2023-06-28 LIB 48% PC 38% NDP 8% 2023-06-28 2023-09-02 LIB 42% PC 40% NDP 13% 2023-09-02 2023-10-17 LIB 45% PC 35% NDP 15% 2023-10-17 2024-01-30 LIB 48% PC 32% NDP 16% 2024-01-30 2024-03-09 LIB 44% PC 34% NDP 18% 2024-03-09 2024-04-15 LIB 40% PC 37% NDP 19% 2024-04-15 2024-05-27 LIB 41% PC 37% NDP 19% 2024-05-27 2025-10-01 LIB 42% PC 34% NDP 20% 2025-10-01 2023-03-10 LIB 42% PC 38% NDP 16% 2023-03-10 2023-06-28 LIB 40% PC 40% NDP 16% 2023-06-28 2023-09-02 LIB 46% PC 38% NDP 13% 2023-09-02
[▲▼: movement since previous update]
Projection updated on October 1, 2025

Firm Rating Date
(middle)		 Sample LIB PC NDP Leader
Narrative Research
B−
2025-08-19 350 59 31 9 LIB +28
Narrative Research
B−
2024-08-13 350 43 35 19 LIB +8
Narrative Research
B−
2024-05-19 350 38 41 19 PC +3
Narrative Research
B−
2024-02-13 350 43 33 23 LIB +10
Narrative Research
B−
2023-11-15 388 44 38 16 LIB +6
Abacus Data
A−
2023-09-22 500 40 38 21 LIB +2
Narrative Research
B−
2023-08-06 350 40 37 23 LIB +3
Narrative Research
B−
2023-05-11 350 50 31 17 LIB +19
Narrative Research
B−
2023-02-19 350 46 36 17 LIB +10
Narrative Research
B−
2022-11-15 535 47 34 16 LIB +13
Narrative Research
B−
2022-08-14 400 40 42 16 PC +2
Angus Reid
A−
2022-06-11 201 36 45 12 PC +9
Narrative Research
B−
2022-05-15 400 48 32 17 LIB +16
Angus Reid
A−
2022-03-13 196 43 44 10 PC +1
Narrative Research
B−
2022-02-15 350 49 32 15 LIB +17
Angus Reid
A−
2022-01-09 155 37 44 15 PC +7
MQO Research
B+
2021-11-28 400 47 31 18 LIB +16
Narrative Research
B−
2021-11-12 800 48 27 23 LIB +21
Angus Reid
A−
2021-10-01 203 39 39 17 Tie
Narrative Research
B−
2021-09-19 400 53 28 18 LIB +25
MQO Research
B+
2021-06-28 400 56 26 15 LIB +30
Angus Reid
A−
2021-06-05 153 50 39 8 LIB +11
Narrative Research
B−
2021-05-19 800 54 30 14 LIB +24
General election 2021-03-25 178,632 48.2 38.8 8.0 LIB +9.4
Forum Research
B
2021-03-24 933 48 34 14 LIB +14
Mainstreet Research
A−
2021-02-21 1,243 53 32 9 LIB +21
Mainstreet Research
A−
2021-02-10 996 54 26 17 LIB +28
Mainstreet Research
A−
2021-01-27 877 62 26 9 LIB +36
MQO Research
B+
2020-12-14 308 65 22 11 LIB +43
Angus Reid
A−
2020-11-27 198 50 39 8 LIB +11
Narrative Research
B−
2020-11-17 800 58 26 13 LIB +32
MQO Research
B+
2020-08-23 400 53 33 11 LIB +20
Narrative Research
B−
2020-08-12 400 61 21 15 LIB +40
Angus Reid
A−
2020-05-22 213 48 35 12 LIB +13
Narrative Research
B−
2020-05-15 801 60 26 13 LIB +34
Narrative Research
B−
2020-02-14 400 37 35 26 LIB +2
Narrative Research
B−
2019-11-12 581 42 33 24 LIB +9
Narrative Research
B−
2019-08-14 800 42 32 24 LIB +10
MQO Research
B+
2019-07-28 400 50 34 13 LIB +16
[** Double asterix indicates this is an internal poll or a poll coming from a partisan source. These polls are listed on this page for information purposes, and are weighted down in the projections.]