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Canada

Victoria



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC leaning

Candidates | Victoria


Liberal Wilfrid Greaves
Conservative Angus Ross
NDP Laurel Collins*
Green Michael Doherty
PPC David Mohr
Rhinoceros Cody Fraser
Christian Heritage Mary Moreau
Independent Steven Filipovic

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Victoria 36% ± 7% LPC 30% ± 7%▼ NDP 24% ± 6% CPC 7% ± 4% GPC NDP 2021 43.9% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Victoria 86%▲ LPC 13%▼ NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Victoria

LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 24% ± 6% NDP 30% ± 7% GPC 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Victoria 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 NDP 34% LPC 29% CPC 22% GPC 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 33% LPC 30% CPC 23% GPC 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 35% NDP 28% CPC 23% GPC 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 36% NDP 28% CPC 23% GPC 12% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 36% NDP 28% CPC 23% GPC 12% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 36% NDP 28% CPC 23% GPC 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 37% NDP 28% CPC 23% GPC 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 37% NDP 27% CPC 23% GPC 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 37% NDP 28% CPC 23% GPC 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 38% NDP 27% CPC 23% GPC 11% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 38% NDP 27% CPC 23% GPC 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 23% GPC 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 23% GPC 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 23% GPC 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 23% GPC 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 38% NDP 30% CPC 23% GPC 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 38% NDP 32% CPC 23% GPC 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 39% NDP 31% CPC 23% GPC 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 38% NDP 32% CPC 23% GPC 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 38% NDP 31% CPC 23% GPC 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 38% NDP 31% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 38% NDP 31% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 38% NDP 30% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 25% GPC 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 25% GPC 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 24% GPC 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 24% GPC 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 24% GPC 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 24% GPC 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 24% GPC 7% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Victoria

LPC 86% CPC <1% NDP 13% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 NDP 84% LPC 16% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 74% LPC 26% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 90% NDP 9% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 92% NDP 8% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 93% NDP 7% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 94% NDP 6% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 95% NDP 5% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 97% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 97% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 92% NDP 8% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 93% NDP 7% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 94% NDP 6% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 94% NDP 6% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 92% NDP 8% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 86% NDP 14% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 90% NDP 10% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 87% NDP 13% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 87% NDP 13% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 87% NDP 13% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 90% NDP 10% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 92% NDP 8% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 91% NDP 9% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 93% NDP 7% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 92% NDP 8% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 92% NDP 8% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 90% NDP 10% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 85% NDP 15% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 86% NDP 13% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Victoria



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 22.3% 27.3% 36% ± 7% NDP 33.2% 43.9% 30% ± 7% CPC 12.6% 13.7% 24% ± 6% GPC 29.9% 11.2% 7% ± 4% PPC 1.3% 3.1% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.