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Canada

Victoria



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
NDP safe
Victoria 42% ± 7%▲ NDP 25% ± 6%▼ CPC 16% ± 5%▼ LPC 15% ± 5% GPC NDP 2021 43.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Victoria >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Victoria

LPC 16% ± 5% CPC 25% ± 6% NDP 42% ± 7% GPC 15% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Victoria 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 38% CPC 27% GPC 19% LPC 15% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 38% CPC 26% GPC 19% LPC 15% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 39% CPC 26% GPC 18% LPC 16% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 39% CPC 25% GPC 18% LPC 16% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 40% CPC 25% GPC 18% LPC 17% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 39% CPC 25% GPC 18% LPC 17% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 41% CPC 24% GPC 17% LPC 17% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 42% CPC 24% LPC 17% GPC 15% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 42% CPC 24% LPC 17% GPC 15% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 42% CPC 24% LPC 18% GPC 15% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 42% CPC 24% LPC 18% GPC 15% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP 42% CPC 24% LPC 18% GPC 15% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 42% CPC 23% LPC 18% GPC 15% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 42% CPC 24% LPC 17% GPC 15% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 43% CPC 23% LPC 17% GPC 15% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 42% CPC 24% LPC 18% GPC 15% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 NDP 39% CPC 25% LPC 18% GPC 15% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 NDP 39% CPC 24% LPC 19% GPC 16% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 NDP 38% CPC 25% LPC 19% GPC 15% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 NDP 38% CPC 25% LPC 20% GPC 15% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 NDP 39% CPC 25% LPC 19% GPC 15% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 NDP 40% CPC 26% LPC 18% GPC 15% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP 41% CPC 25% LPC 17% GPC 15% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 41% CPC 24% LPC 18% GPC 15% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 41% CPC 24% LPC 18% GPC 15% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 41% CPC 24% LPC 18% GPC 15% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 40% CPC 25% LPC 19% GPC 15% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 39% CPC 25% LPC 19% GPC 15% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 NDP 40% CPC 26% LPC 18% GPC 15% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP 40% CPC 26% LPC 18% GPC 15% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 41% CPC 26% LPC 17% GPC 15% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 42% CPC 25% LPC 16% GPC 15% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Victoria

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Victoria



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 33.2% 43.9% 42% ± 7% LPC 22.3% 27.3% 16% ± 5% CPC 12.6% 13.7% 25% ± 6% GPC 29.9% 11.2% 15% ± 5% PPC 1.3% 3.1% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.