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Canada

Victoria


MP elect: Will Greaves (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Victoria


Liberal Will Greaves
Conservative Angus Ross
NDP Laurel Collins*
Green Michael Doherty
PPC David Mohr
Rhinoceros Cody Fraser
Christian Heritage Mary Moreau
Independent Steven Filipovic

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Victoria 54% ± 0%▲ LPC 25% ± 0%▼ NDP 17% ± 0%▼ CPC 3% ± 0%▼ GPC LPC 2025 54.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Victoria >99%▲ LPC <1%▼ NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Victoria

LPC 54% ± 0% CPC 17% ± 0% NDP 25% ± 0% GPC 3% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Victoria 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 NDP 34% LPC 29% CPC 22% GPC 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 33% LPC 30% CPC 23% GPC 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 35% NDP 28% CPC 23% GPC 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 36% NDP 28% CPC 23% GPC 12% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 36% NDP 28% CPC 23% GPC 12% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 36% NDP 28% CPC 23% GPC 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 37% NDP 28% CPC 23% GPC 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 37% NDP 27% CPC 23% GPC 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 37% NDP 28% CPC 23% GPC 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 38% NDP 27% CPC 23% GPC 11% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 38% NDP 27% CPC 23% GPC 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 23% GPC 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 23% GPC 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 23% GPC 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 23% GPC 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 38% NDP 30% CPC 23% GPC 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 38% NDP 32% CPC 23% GPC 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 39% NDP 31% CPC 23% GPC 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 38% NDP 32% CPC 23% GPC 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 38% NDP 31% CPC 23% GPC 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 38% NDP 31% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 38% NDP 31% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 38% NDP 30% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 25% GPC 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 25% GPC 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 24% GPC 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 24% GPC 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 24% GPC 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 24% GPC 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 24% GPC 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 36% NDP 33% CPC 21% GPC 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 36% NDP 33% CPC 21% GPC 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 37% NDP 32% CPC 21% GPC 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 37% NDP 31% CPC 21% GPC 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 38% NDP 31% CPC 21% GPC 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 38% NDP 30% CPC 22% GPC 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 38% NDP 30% CPC 22% GPC 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 37% NDP 31% CPC 22% GPC 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 54% NDP 25% CPC 17% GPC 3% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Victoria

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 NDP 84% LPC 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 74% LPC 26% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 90% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 92% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 93% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 94% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 95% NDP 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 97% NDP 3% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 97% NDP 3% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 98% NDP 2% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 98% NDP 2% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 92% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 93% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 94% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 94% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 92% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 86% NDP 14% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 90% NDP 10% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 87% NDP 13% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 87% NDP 13% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 87% NDP 13% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 90% NDP 10% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 92% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 91% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 93% NDP 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 92% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 92% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 90% NDP 10% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 85% NDP 15% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 87% NDP 13% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 89% NDP 11% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 90% NDP 10% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 88% NDP 12% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 89% NDP 11% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 90% NDP 10% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 69% NDP 31% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 72% NDP 28% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 81% NDP 19% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 87% NDP 13% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 89% NDP 11% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 91% NDP 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 94% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 86% NDP 14% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Victoria



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 54% ± 0% 22.3% 27.3% 54.3% NDP 25% ± 0% 33.2% 43.9% 25.0% CPC 17% ± 0% 12.6% 13.7% 16.9% GPC 3% ± 0% 29.9% 11.2% 3.1% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.3% 3.1% 0.4% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.