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Welcome to 338Canada Ontario!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Projection | Ontario


Latest update: April 4, 2024

Popular vote projection 39% ± 4%▲ 28% ± 4%▼ 22% ± 3%▲ 7% ± 2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 4, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 63 seats for a majority 73▲ [57-95] 25▲ [14-31] 23▼ [6-39] 2 [1-3] 1 [1-1] IND 338Canada Ontario | April 4, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% <1% <1% Tie Odds of winning | April 4, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 90%▲ PCPO maj. 10%▼ PCPO min. <1% OLP min. <1% Tie Odds of outcome | April 4, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Ontario | Popular vote projection

OLP PCPO NDP GPO OLP 28% ± 4% PCPO 39% ± 4% NDP 22% ± 3% GPO 7% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022

Ontario | Seat projection

OLP 23 [6-39] PCPO 73 [57-95] NDP 25 [14-31] GPO 2 [1-3] IND 1 [1-1] Seat projection 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO IND Majority: 63 seats

Ontario | Odds of winning the most seats

OLP <1% PCPO >99% Tie <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO Tie

Ontario | Odds of election outcome

OLP minority <1% PCPO majority 90% PCPO minority 10% Tie <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP minority PCPO majority PCPO minority Tie