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Welcome to 338Canada Ontario!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | Ontario


Latest update: February 9, 2025

Popular vote projection 45% ± 4% PCPO 26% ± 3%▼ OLP 20% ± 3% NDP 6% ± 1% GPO 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 63 seats for a majority 100▲ [78-110] PCPO 13 [6-27] NDP 8▼ [1-21] OLP 2 [1-3] GPO 1 [0-1] IND 338Canada Ontario | February 9, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 9, 2025
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99% PCPO maj. <1% PCPO min. <1% NDP min. <1% NDP maj. Odds of outcome | February 9, 2025

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

338Canada Ontario | Popular Vote Projection

OLP 26% ± 3% PCPO 45% ± 4% NDP 20% ± 3% GPO 6% ± 1% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins February 9, 2025 2025-01-24 PCPO 44% OLP 25% NDP 20% GPO 7% 2025-01-24 2025-01-27 PCPO 42% OLP 26% NDP 21% GPO 7% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 42% OLP 26% NDP 21% GPO 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 45% OLP 26% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 45% OLP 25% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 44% OLP 26% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 45% OLP 27% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 45% OLP 27% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 46% OLP 26% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 46% OLP 26% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 45% OLP 27% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 45% OLP 26% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-09

338Canada Ontario | Seat Projection

OLP 8 [1-21] PCPO 100 [78-110] NDP 13 [6-27] GPO 2 [1-3] IND 1 [0-1] Seat projection 100 80 60 40 20 2025-01-15 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins Majority: 63 seats February 9, 2025 2025-01-24 PCPO 99 NDP 13 OLP 9 GPO 2 2025-01-24 2025-01-27 PCPO 88 NDP 20 OLP 13 GPO 2 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 91 NDP 18 OLP 12 GPO 2 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 99 NDP 14 OLP 8 GPO 2 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 98 NDP 15 OLP 8 GPO 2 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 97 NDP 16 OLP 8 GPO 2 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 99 NDP 13 OLP 9 GPO 2 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 99 NDP 13 OLP 9 GPO 2 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 101 NDP 12 OLP 8 GPO 2 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 100 NDP 13 OLP 8 GPO 2 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 99 NDP 13 OLP 9 GPO 2 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 100 NDP 13 OLP 8 GPO 2 2025-02-09

338Canada Ontario | Odds of Winning the Most Seats

OLP <1% PCPO >99% Tie <1% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-01-15 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO Tie February 9, 2025 2025-01-24 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-24 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09

338Canada Ontario | Odds of Election Outcome

PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% 338Canada Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-01-15 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP majority OLP minority PCPO majority PCPO minority February 9, 2025 2025-01-24 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-01-24 2025-01-27 PCPO majority 99% PCPO minority 1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-09