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Welcome to 338Canada Ontario!


338Canada is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data.

This website is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L’actualité, as well as a regular contributor to Politico Canada and The Walrus.

He also appears as a panelist on CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter to stay updated — and enjoy the website!


Latest Ontario Polls

Abacus
2025-11-06
51
19
23
3
Léger
2025-10-16
44
13
32
7
Abacus
2025-10-12
51
15
25
5
Liaison
2025-10-15
47
15
33
3
Abacus
2025-09-15
52
12
24
6
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View all Ontario polls →

338Canada Projection | Ontario


Latest update: October 21, 2025

Popular vote projection 47% ± 4% ▼ PC 29% ± 4% OLP 16% ± 2% NDP 5% ± 1% GPO 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 21, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 63 seats for a majority 90 [78-99] PC 18 [13-26] NDP 13 [7-20] OLP 2 [2-2] GPO 1 [1-1] IND 338Canada Ontario | October 21, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% PC <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | October 21, 2025
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99% PCPO maj. <1% PCPO min. <1% NDP min. <1% NDP maj. Odds of outcome | October 21, 2025

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

338Canada Ontario | Popular Vote Projection

OLP 29% ± 4% PC 47% ± 4% NDP 16% ± 2% GPO 5% ± 1% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 October 21, 2025 2025-01-27 PC 42% OLP 26% NDP 21% GPO 7% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 42% OLP 26% NDP 21% GPO 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 45% OLP 26% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 45% OLP 25% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 44% OLP 26% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 45% OLP 27% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 45% OLP 27% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 46% OLP 26% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 46% OLP 26% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 45% OLP 27% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 45% OLP 26% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 45% OLP 26% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 45% OLP 27% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 45% OLP 27% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 45% OLP 27% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 45% OLP 28% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 45% OLP 27% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 45% OLP 27% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 44% OLP 28% NDP 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 44% OLP 28% NDP 18% GPO 7% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 45% OLP 28% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 45% OLP 28% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 45% OLP 28% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 45% OLP 27% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 45% OLP 27% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 45% OLP 27% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 45% OLP 28% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 45% OLP 27% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 46% OLP 28% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 43% OLP 30% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 43% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 43% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 44% OLP 30% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 48% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 47% OLP 29% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2025-10-21

338Canada Ontario | Seat Projection

OLP 13 [7-20] PC 90 [78-99] NDP 18 [13-26] GPO 2 [2-2] IND 1 [1-1] Seat projection 100 80 60 40 20 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 Majority: 63 seats October 21, 2025 2025-01-27 PC 88 NDP 20 OLP 13 GPO 2 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 91 NDP 18 OLP 12 GPO 2 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 99 NDP 14 OLP 8 GPO 2 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 98 NDP 15 OLP 8 GPO 2 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 97 NDP 16 OLP 8 GPO 2 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 99 NDP 13 OLP 9 GPO 2 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 99 NDP 13 OLP 9 GPO 2 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 101 NDP 12 OLP 8 GPO 2 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 100 NDP 13 OLP 8 GPO 2 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 99 NDP 13 OLP 9 GPO 2 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 100 NDP 13 OLP 8 GPO 2 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 100 NDP 13 OLP 8 GPO 2 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 99 NDP 13 OLP 9 GPO 2 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 99 OLP 11 NDP 11 GPO 2 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 98 OLP 12 NDP 11 GPO 2 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 92 NDP 15 OLP 14 GPO 2 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 96 NDP 14 OLP 12 GPO 2 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 96 NDP 14 OLP 12 GPO 2 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 85 OLP 19 NDP 17 GPO 2 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 86 OLP 19 NDP 17 GPO 2 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 90 OLP 16 NDP 16 GPO 2 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 92 NDP 17 OLP 13 GPO 2 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 88 NDP 18 OLP 16 GPO 2 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 91 NDP 19 OLP 12 GPO 2 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 91 NDP 19 OLP 12 GPO 2 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 88 NDP 19 OLP 15 GPO 2 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 89 NDP 19 OLP 14 GPO 2 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 93 OLP 15 NDP 14 GPO 2 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 92 NDP 16 OLP 14 GPO 2 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 80 NDP 27 OLP 14 GPO 2 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 82 NDP 25 OLP 14 GPO 2 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 82 NDP 25 OLP 14 GPO 2 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 83 NDP 25 OLP 13 GPO 2 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 90 NDP 18 OLP 13 GPO 2 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 90 NDP 18 OLP 13 GPO 2 2025-10-21

338Canada Ontario | Odds of Winning the Most Seats

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP GPO October 21, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-10-21

338Canada Ontario | Odds of Election Outcome

PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% 338Canada Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 OLP majority OLP minority PCPO majority PCPO minority October 21, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO majority 99% PCPO minority 1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO majority 99% PCPO minority 1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO majority 95% PCPO minority 5% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO majority 94% PCPO minority 6% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PCPO majority 97% PCPO minority 3% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% OLP minority <1% OLP majority <1% 2025-10-21