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Ontario

Welcome to 338Canada Ontario!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Projection | Ontario


Latest update: November 12, 2024

Popular vote projection 41% ± 4% PCPO 26% ± 3%▼ OLP 21% ± 3% NDP 7% ± 2% GPO 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 63 seats for a majority 91▲ [70-103] PCPO 18▼ [10-29] NDP 12▼ [3-27] OLP 2 [1-3] GPO 1 [0-1] IND 338Canada Ontario | November 12, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99%▲ PCPO maj. <1%▼ PCPO min. <1% NDP min. <1% NDP maj. Odds of outcome | November 12, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Ontario | Popular vote projection

OLP PCPO NDP GPO OLP 26% ± 3% PCPO 41% ± 4% NDP 21% ± 3% GPO 7% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 39% OLP 29% NDP 21% GPO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 37% OLP 29% NDP 24% GPO 5% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 38% OLP 28% NDP 24% GPO 5% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 38% OLP 28% NDP 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 38% OLP 28% NDP 24% GPO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 38% OLP 28% NDP 24% GPO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 37% OLP 29% NDP 24% GPO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 37% OLP 29% NDP 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 37% OLP 29% NDP 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 38% OLP 28% NDP 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 38% OLP 28% NDP 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 38% OLP 28% NDP 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 38% OLP 28% NDP 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 39% OLP 28% NDP 24% GPO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 38% OLP 28% NDP 24% GPO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 38% OLP 30% NDP 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 38% OLP 29% NDP 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 37% OLP 29% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 36% OLP 28% NDP 24% GPO 7% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 36% OLP 28% NDP 24% GPO 7% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 36% OLP 28% NDP 24% GPO 7% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 37% OLP 28% NDP 23% GPO 7% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 37% OLP 28% NDP 23% GPO 7% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 36% OLP 28% NDP 23% GPO 7% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 36% OLP 28% NDP 23% GPO 7% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 37% OLP 27% NDP 24% GPO 7% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 38% OLP 27% NDP 23% GPO 7% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 38% OLP 27% NDP 23% GPO 7% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 38% OLP 27% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 38% OLP 27% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 40% OLP 26% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 41% OLP 24% NDP 24% GPO 6% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 40% OLP 24% NDP 24% GPO 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 40% OLP 25% NDP 22% GPO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 40% OLP 26% NDP 22% GPO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 40% OLP 26% NDP 22% GPO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 40% OLP 25% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 36% OLP 25% NDP 25% GPO 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 37% OLP 26% NDP 24% GPO 8% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 37% OLP 25% NDP 24% GPO 7% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 38% OLP 25% NDP 24% GPO 7% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 35% OLP 27% NDP 25% GPO 7% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 37% OLP 25% NDP 25% GPO 7% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 40% OLP 24% NDP 24% GPO 7% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 39% OLP 26% NDP 24% GPO 7% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 38% OLP 27% NDP 23% GPO 7% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 36% OLP 31% NDP 22% GPO 7% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 38% OLP 29% NDP 21% GPO 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 39% OLP 28% NDP 22% GPO 7% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 39% OLP 28% NDP 21% GPO 7% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 40% OLP 26% NDP 21% GPO 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 42% OLP 26% NDP 20% GPO 7% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 41% OLP 27% NDP 21% GPO 7% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 41% OLP 26% NDP 21% GPO 7% 2024-11-11

Ontario | Seat projection

OLP 12 [3-27] PCPO 91 [70-103] NDP 18 [10-29] GPO 2 [1-3] IND 1 [0-1] Seat projection 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO IND Majority: 63 seats November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 77 OLP 26 NDP 20 GPO 1 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 74 OLP 25 NDP 24 GPO 1 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 78 OLP 23 NDP 22 GPO 1 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 79 OLP 24 NDP 20 GPO 1 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 80 OLP 22 NDP 21 GPO 1 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 76 OLP 24 NDP 23 GPO 1 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 70 OLP 30 NDP 23 GPO 1 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 68 OLP 33 NDP 22 GPO 1 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 68 OLP 33 NDP 22 GPO 1 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 80 NDP 23 OLP 20 GPO 1 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 80 NDP 23 OLP 20 GPO 1 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 81 OLP 21 NDP 21 GPO 1 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 81 OLP 21 NDP 21 GPO 1 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 82 NDP 24 OLP 17 GPO 1 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 79 NDP 23 OLP 21 GPO 1 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 76 OLP 26 NDP 21 GPO 1 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 77 OLP 25 NDP 21 GPO 1 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 77 OLP 25 NDP 21 GPO 1 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 74 OLP 25 NDP 24 GPO 1 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 74 NDP 25 OLP 24 GPO 1 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 72 OLP 26 NDP 25 GPO 1 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 81 NDP 23 OLP 19 GPO 1 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 80 NDP 22 OLP 21 GPO 1 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 80 NDP 24 OLP 18 GPO 2 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 80 NDP 24 OLP 18 GPO 2 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 80 NDP 26 OLP 17 GPO 1 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 83 NDP 25 OLP 15 GPO 1 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 81 NDP 26 OLP 16 GPO 1 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 78 NDP 25 OLP 20 GPO 1 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 79 NDP 25 OLP 19 GPO 1 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 81 NDP 26 OLP 16 GPO 1 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 83 NDP 31 OLP 8 GPO 1 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 83 NDP 31 OLP 8 GPO 1 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 85 NDP 27 OLP 9 GPO 2 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 83 NDP 26 OLP 13 GPO 1 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 82 NDP 27 OLP 13 GPO 1 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 83 NDP 30 OLP 9 GPO 1 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 71 NDP 33 OLP 17 GPO 2 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 71 NDP 33 OLP 17 GPO 2 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 74 NDP 32 OLP 16 GPO 1 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 76 NDP 31 OLP 15 GPO 1 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 65 NDP 33 OLP 23 GPO 2 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 75 NDP 32 OLP 15 GPO 1 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 83 NDP 30 OLP 8 GPO 2 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 72 NDP 28 OLP 21 GPO 2 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 71 NDP 28 OLP 22 GPO 2 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 60 OLP 35 NDP 25 GPO 3 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 70 OLP 28 NDP 23 GPO 2 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 73 NDP 25 OLP 23 GPO 2 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 80 NDP 24 OLP 17 GPO 2 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 86 NDP 23 OLP 12 GPO 2 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 93 NDP 16 OLP 12 GPO 2 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 88 NDP 20 OLP 13 GPO 2 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 91 NDP 18 OLP 12 GPO 2 2024-11-11

Ontario | Odds of winning the most seats

PCPO >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO Tie November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 97% OLP 3% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 96% OLP 3% Tie 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 98% OLP 2% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 98% OLP 2% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 98% OLP 2% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 97% OLP 2% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 96% OLP 3% Tie 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 94% OLP 5% Tie 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 91% OLP 8% Tie 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 98% OLP 2% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 98% OLP 2% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 98% OLP 1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 98% OLP 1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 99% OLP <1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 98% OLP 2% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 98% OLP 2% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 99% OLP 1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 99% OLP 1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 99% OLP 1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 99% OLP 1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 98% OLP 1% Tie <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 99% OLP 1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 99% OLP 1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 99% OLP 1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 99% OLP 1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO >99% OLP <1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO >99% OLP <1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% Tie <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 96% OLP 3% Tie 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% Tie <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% Tie <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11

Ontario | Odds of election outcome

PCPO majority >99% PCPO minority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 PCPO majority PCPO minority November 12, 2024