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Simcoe North



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Simcoe North


Liberal Ryan Rocca
Conservative Adam Chambers*
NDP Melissa Lloyd
Green Ray Little
PPC Stephen Makk
Christian Heritage Russ Emo

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Simcoe North 48% ± 8% CPC 38% ± 8%▼ LPC 6% ± 3% NDP 3% ± 2% GPC CPC 2021 42.2% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Simcoe North 93%▲ CPC 7%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Simcoe North

LPC 38% ± 8% CPC 48% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Simcoe North 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 51% LPC 28% NDP 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% LPC 29% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Simcoe North

LPC 7% CPC 93% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Simcoe North



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 42.5% 42.2% 48% ± 8% LPC 31.3% 30.8% 38% ± 8% NDP 14.4% 16.0% 6% ± 3% GPC 9.4% 3.0% 3% ± 2% PPC 1.9% 7.6% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.