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Canada

Simcoe North


MP: Adam Chambers (CPC)

Latest projection: July 13, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Simcoe North


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 46% ± 8% 42.5% 42.2% 48.4% LPC 46% ± 8% 31.3% 30.8% 44.7% NDP 5% ± 3% 14.4% 16.0% 3.8% GPC 2% ± 2% 9.4% 3.0% 1.9% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.9% 7.6% 1.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Simcoe-Nord


Simcoe North 46% ± 8%▼ CPC 46% ± 8%▲ LPC 5% ± 3%▲ NDP CPC 2025 48.4% 338Canada vote projection | July 13, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Simcoe North 52%▼ CPC 48%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 13, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Simcoe North

LPC 46% ± 8% CPC 46% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Simcoe North 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 13, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 57% NDP 17% LPC 15% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 57% NDP 17% LPC 17% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 56% LPC 17% NDP 17% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 54% LPC 20% NDP 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 52% LPC 23% NDP 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 51% LPC 25% NDP 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 50% LPC 27% NDP 12% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 50% LPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 51% LPC 28% NDP 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% LPC 29% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 32% NDP 10% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 47% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 5% 2025-07-13 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Simcoe North

LPC 48% CPC 52% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 13, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader