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Canada


Provencher (federal)


MP: Ted Falk (CPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

CPC safe hold
Provencher 55% ± 8% 19% ± 5% 16% ± 5% 6% ± 4% 4% ± 3% CPC 2021 48.74% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Provencher >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Provencher

LPC 16% ± 5% CPC 55% ± 8% NDP 19% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% PPC 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Provencher 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Odds of winning | Provencher

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Provencher



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 56.1% 65.9% 48.74% 55% ± 8% LPC 34.7% 13.1% 17.0% 16% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 2.2% 16.39% 6% ± 4% NDP 5.3% 12.8% 12.58% 19% ± 5% IND 0.0% 0.0% 2.74% 0% ± 0% GPC 4.0% 6.0% 2.55% 4% ± 3%