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Canada

St. Boniface—St. Vital


MP elect: Ginette Lavack (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | St. Boniface—St. Vital


Liberal Ginette Lavack
Conservative Shola Agboola
NDP Thomas Linner
PPC Gilles Pelletier

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


St. Boniface—St. Vital 60% ± 6% LPC 32% ± 6% CPC 7% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 59.8% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. Boniface—St. Vital >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | St. Boniface—St. Vital

LPC 60% ± 6% CPC 32% ± 6% NDP 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | St. Boniface—St. Vital 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 38% LPC 35% NDP 21% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 37% LPC 37% NDP 21% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 37% LPC 37% NDP 21% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 38% CPC 36% NDP 21% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 41% CPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 44% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 15% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 50% CPC 31% NDP 14% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 50% CPC 30% NDP 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 54% CPC 28% NDP 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 59% CPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 60% CPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 64% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 66% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | St. Boniface—St. Vital

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | St. Boniface—St. Vital



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 60% ± 6% 42.9% 43.9% 59.8% CPC 32% ± 6% 32.8% 28.3% 32.3% NDP 7% ± 3% 16.9% 21.2% 6.9% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.2% 4.3% 1.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 5.7% 1.5% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.