logo
logo
Canada

St. Boniface—St. Vital


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
LPC safe
St. Boniface—St. Vital 44% ± 8% LPC 29% ± 7% CPC 19% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 2% GPC LPC 2021 43.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. Boniface—St. Vital >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | St. Boniface—St. Vital

LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 29% ± 7% NDP 19% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | St. Boniface—St. Vital 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 42% CPC 31% NDP 21% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 42% CPC 31% NDP 20% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 43% CPC 31% NDP 20% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 44% CPC 31% NDP 19% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 45% CPC 31% NDP 19% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 46% CPC 30% NDP 19% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 45% CPC 30% NDP 19% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 44% CPC 29% NDP 19% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 45% CPC 29% NDP 19% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 44% CPC 29% NDP 19% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 44% CPC 29% NDP 19% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | St. Boniface—St. Vital

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | St. Boniface—St. Vital



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.9% 43.9% 44% ± 8% CPC 32.8% 28.3% 29% ± 7% NDP 16.9% 21.2% 19% ± 5% PPC 1.2% 4.3% 2% ± 3% GPC 5.7% 1.5% 3% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.