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338 Blog
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Canada
Electoral districts
All 338 electoral districts
Atlantic Canada
Quebec
Ontario
Prairies
Alberta
British Columbia
Territories
Parties
LPC
CPC
BQ
NDP
GPC
PPC
Federal polls
Map
Federal simulator
Provencher (federal)
MP: Ted Falk (CPC)
Latest projection: February 5, 2023
CPC safe hold
Provencher
50% ± 8%
CPC
22% ± 6%
LPC
17% ± 5%
NDP
8% ± 5%
PPC
4% ± 3%
GPC
CPC 2021
48.74%
338Canada Popular vote projection | February 5, 2023
50%
100%
Provencher
>99%
CPC
<1%
LPC
<1%
NDP
Odds of winning | February 5, 2023
Popular vote projection | Provencher
LPC 22% ± 6%
CPC 50% ± 8%
NDP 17% ± 5%
PPC 8% ± 5%
Popular vote projection % | Provencher
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-03-01
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
LPC
CPC
NDP
PPC
Odds of winning | Provencher
LPC <1%
CPC >99%
NDP <1%
GPC <1%
Odds of winning the most seats
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-03-01
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
LPC
CPC
NDP
GPC
Recent electoral history | Provencher
2015
2019
2021
Proj.
CPC
56.1%
65.9%
48.74%
50% ± 8%
LPC
34.7%
13.1%
17.0%
22% ± 6%
PPC
0.0%
2.2%
16.39%
8% ± 5%
NDP
5.3%
12.8%
12.58%
17% ± 5%
GPC
4.0%
6.0%
2.55%
4% ± 3%
BQ
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0% ± 0%