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Canada

St. Boniface—St. Vital



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | St. Boniface—St. Vital


Liberal Ginette Lavack
Conservative Shola Agboola
NDP Thomas Linner
PPC Gilles Pelletier

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



St. Boniface—St. Vital 63% ± 8%▲ LPC 28% ± 7% CPC 8% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 43.9% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. Boniface—St. Vital >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | St. Boniface—St. Vital

LPC 63% ± 8% CPC 28% ± 7% NDP 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | St. Boniface—St. Vital 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 50% CPC 30% NDP 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 54% CPC 28% NDP 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 59% CPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 60% CPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 61% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 62% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 63% CPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | St. Boniface—St. Vital

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | St. Boniface—St. Vital



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.9% 43.9% 63% ± 8% CPC 32.8% 28.3% 28% ± 7% NDP 16.9% 21.2% 8% ± 4% PPC 1.2% 4.3% 1% ± 1% GPC 5.7% 1.5% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.