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Canada

St. Boniface—St. Vital



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
St. Boniface—St. Vital 36% ± 7% LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 22% ± 6% NDP LPC 2021 43.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. Boniface—St. Vital 55%▲ LPC 45%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | St. Boniface—St. Vital

LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 36% ± 7% NDP 22% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | St. Boniface—St. Vital 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 42% CPC 31% NDP 21% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 42% CPC 31% NDP 20% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 43% CPC 31% NDP 20% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 44% CPC 31% NDP 19% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 45% CPC 31% NDP 19% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 46% CPC 30% NDP 19% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 45% CPC 30% NDP 19% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 44% CPC 29% NDP 19% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 45% CPC 29% NDP 19% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 44% CPC 29% NDP 19% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 44% CPC 29% NDP 19% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 44% CPC 29% NDP 19% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 43% CPC 30% NDP 20% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 42% CPC 30% NDP 20% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 43% CPC 29% NDP 20% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 20% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 45% CPC 28% NDP 20% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 20% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 44% CPC 29% NDP 20% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 42% CPC 30% NDP 21% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 38% CPC 32% NDP 22% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 36% CPC 33% NDP 24% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 35% CPC 34% NDP 25% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 35% CPC 34% NDP 24% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 35% CPC 34% NDP 24% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 36% CPC 34% NDP 24% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 36% CPC 34% NDP 23% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 37% CPC 35% NDP 22% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 22% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 36% LPC 36% NDP 22% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 36% CPC 36% NDP 22% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 36% CPC 36% NDP 22% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | St. Boniface—St. Vital

LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 59% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | St. Boniface—St. Vital



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.9% 43.9% 36% ± 7% CPC 32.8% 28.3% 36% ± 7% NDP 16.9% 21.2% 22% ± 6% PPC 1.2% 4.3% 2% ± 2% GPC 5.7% 1.5% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.