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Canada

Montmorency—Charlevoix



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Montmorency—Charlevoix


Liberal Alex Ouellet-Belanger
Conservative Gabriel Hardy
NDP Gerard Briand
Green Elie Prud'Homme-Tessier
Bloc Quebecois Caroline Desbiens*
PPC Bart Cortenbach

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Montmorency—Charlevoix 37% ± 7%▼ CPC 30% ± 7%▲ BQ 28% ± 7%▲ LPC 3% ± 2% NDP BQ 2021 36.7% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Montmorency—Charlevoix 88%▼ CPC 8%▲ BQ 3%▲ LPC Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Montmorency—Charlevoix

LPC 28% ± 7% CPC 37% ± 7% BQ 30% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Montmorency—Charlevoix 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC BQ April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 40% BQ 34% LPC 17% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 39% BQ 34% LPC 18% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 39% BQ 33% LPC 19% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 39% BQ 33% LPC 20% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 39% BQ 33% LPC 20% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 39% BQ 33% LPC 20% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 39% BQ 33% LPC 20% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 38% BQ 33% LPC 20% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 37% BQ 33% LPC 22% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 37% BQ 32% LPC 22% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 38% BQ 32% LPC 22% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 38% BQ 31% LPC 23% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 39% BQ 30% LPC 23% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 39% BQ 30% LPC 23% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 39% BQ 30% LPC 23% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 39% BQ 30% LPC 24% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 40% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 39% BQ 29% LPC 25% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 39% BQ 30% LPC 24% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 39% BQ 30% LPC 25% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 40% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 40% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 41% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 41% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 42% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 41% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 41% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 42% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 42% BQ 29% LPC 23% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 41% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 38% BQ 29% LPC 27% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 37% BQ 30% LPC 28% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Montmorency—Charlevoix

LPC 3% CPC 88% NDP <1% BQ 8% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 85% BQ 15% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 84% BQ 16% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 86% BQ 14% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 87% BQ 13% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 87% BQ 13% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 86% BQ 14% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 83% BQ 17% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 81% BQ 19% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 80% BQ 20% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 81% BQ 19% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 87% BQ 13% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 91% BQ 9% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 95% BQ 5% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 96% BQ 4% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 94% BQ 6% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 96% BQ 4% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 97% BQ 3% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 97% BQ 3% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 96% BQ 4% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 96% BQ 4% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 98% BQ 2% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 99% BQ 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 99% BQ 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 98% BQ 2% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 99% BQ 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 98% BQ 2% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 99% BQ 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 99% BQ 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 99% BQ 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 94% BQ 4% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 88% BQ 8% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Montmorency—Charlevoix



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 31.6% 33.9% 37% ± 7% BQ 36.3% 36.7% 30% ± 7% LPC 21.8% 20.2% 28% ± 7% NDP 5.8% 4.6% 3% ± 2% GPC 0.2% 1.2% 2% ± 2% PPC 2.2% 1.9% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.