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Canada

Montmorency—Charlevoix


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
Toss up CPC/BQ
Montmorency—Charlevoix 39% ± 7% CPC 39% ± 7%▲ BQ 12% ± 4% LPC 5% ± 3% NDP BQ 2021 36.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Montmorency—Charlevoix 52%▼ CPC 48%▲ BQ <1% LPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Montmorency—Charlevoix

LPC 12% ± 4% CPC 39% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 3% BQ 39% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Montmorency—Charlevoix 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 40% BQ 38% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 41% CPC 38% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 40% CPC 38% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 40% BQ 38% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 41% BQ 37% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 42% BQ 36% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 40% BQ 38% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 40% BQ 38% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 39% BQ 38% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 39% BQ 38% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 39% BQ 39% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Montmorency—Charlevoix

LPC <1% CPC 52% NDP <1% BQ 48% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 62% BQ 38% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 66% BQ 34% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 78% BQ 22% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 82% BQ 18% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 66% BQ 34% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 60% BQ 40% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 55% BQ 45% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 55% BQ 45% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 52% BQ 48% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Montmorency—Charlevoix



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 36.3% 36.7% 39% ± 7% CPC 31.6% 33.9% 39% ± 7% LPC 21.8% 20.2% 12% ± 4% NDP 5.8% 4.6% 5% ± 3% PPC 2.2% 1.9% 1% ± 2% GPC 0.2% 1.2% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.