logo
logo
Canada

Montmorency—Charlevoix


MP elect: Gabriel Hardy (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
Toss up CPC/BQ

Candidates | Montmorency—Charlevoix


Liberal Alex Ouellet-Belanger
Conservative Gabriel Hardy
NDP Gerard Briand
Green Elie Prud'Homme-Tessier
Bloc Quebecois Caroline Desbiens*
PPC Bart Cortenbach

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Montmorency—Charlevoix 34% ± 6%▼ CPC 34% ± 6%▲ BQ 29% ± 5% LPC CPC 2025 34.5% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Montmorency—Charlevoix 56%▼ CPC 41%▲ BQ 3% LPC Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Montmorency—Charlevoix

LPC 29% ± 5% CPC 34% ± 6% BQ 34% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Montmorency—Charlevoix 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 40% CPC 40% LPC 10% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 41% BQ 40% LPC 10% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 41% BQ 39% LPC 10% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 40% CPC 39% LPC 11% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 39% BQ 38% LPC 13% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 39% BQ 38% LPC 14% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 40% BQ 36% LPC 15% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 39% BQ 35% LPC 17% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 40% BQ 34% LPC 17% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 39% BQ 34% LPC 18% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 39% BQ 33% LPC 19% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 39% BQ 33% LPC 20% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 39% BQ 33% LPC 20% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 39% BQ 33% LPC 20% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 39% BQ 33% LPC 20% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 38% BQ 33% LPC 20% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 37% BQ 33% LPC 22% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 37% BQ 32% LPC 22% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 38% BQ 32% LPC 22% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 38% BQ 31% LPC 23% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 39% BQ 30% LPC 23% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 39% BQ 30% LPC 23% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 39% BQ 30% LPC 23% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 39% BQ 30% LPC 24% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 40% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 39% BQ 29% LPC 25% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 39% BQ 30% LPC 24% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 39% BQ 30% LPC 25% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 40% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 40% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 41% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 41% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 42% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 41% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 41% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 42% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 42% BQ 29% LPC 23% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 41% BQ 29% LPC 24% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 38% BQ 29% LPC 27% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 37% BQ 30% LPC 28% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 37% BQ 30% LPC 27% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 37% BQ 30% LPC 27% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 37% BQ 30% LPC 27% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 37% BQ 30% LPC 26% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 36% BQ 32% LPC 26% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 35% BQ 32% LPC 26% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 36% BQ 32% LPC 26% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 35% BQ 34% LPC 25% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 35% BQ 34% LPC 25% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 34% BQ 34% LPC 25% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 34% BQ 34% LPC 26% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 35% BQ 33% LPC 29% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 35% BQ 33% LPC 29% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 35% BQ 33% LPC 29% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 34% BQ 34% LPC 29% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Montmorency—Charlevoix

LPC 3% CPC 56% NDP <1% BQ 41% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 55% BQ 45% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 57% BQ 43% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 57% BQ 43% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 61% BQ 39% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 70% BQ 30% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 78% BQ 22% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 85% BQ 15% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 84% BQ 16% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 86% BQ 14% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 87% BQ 13% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 87% BQ 13% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 86% BQ 14% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 83% BQ 17% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 81% BQ 19% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 80% BQ 20% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 81% BQ 19% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 87% BQ 13% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 91% BQ 9% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 95% BQ 5% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 96% BQ 4% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 94% BQ 6% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 96% BQ 4% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 97% BQ 3% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 97% BQ 3% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 96% BQ 4% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 96% BQ 4% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 98% BQ 2% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 99% BQ 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 99% BQ 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 98% BQ 2% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 99% BQ 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 98% BQ 2% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 99% BQ 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 99% BQ 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 99% BQ 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 94% BQ 4% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 88% BQ 8% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 90% BQ 8% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 88% BQ 9% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 90% BQ 8% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 89% BQ 10% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 73% BQ 25% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 71% BQ 27% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 76% BQ 24% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 57% BQ 42% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 62% BQ 37% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 51% BQ 49% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 53% BQ 45% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 64% BQ 35% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 64% BQ 34% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 62% BQ 35% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 56% BQ 41% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Montmorency—Charlevoix



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 34% ± 6% 31.6% 33.9% 34.5% BQ 34% ± 6% 36.3% 36.7% 33.6% LPC 29% ± 5% 21.8% 20.2% 28.8% NDP 2% ± 1% 5.8% 4.6% 1.5% GPC 1% ± 1% 0.2% 1.2% 1.0% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.2% 1.9% 0.6%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.