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Canada

Lanark—Frontenac


MP: Scott Reid (CPC)

Latest projection: October 5, 2025
CPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Lanark—Frontenac


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 50% ± 7% 49.1% 49.7% 50.4% LPC 43% ± 7% 23.7% 25.8% 45.6% NDP 4% ± 3% 13.9% 15.2% 2.9% GPC 2% ± 2% 11.4% 2.7% 1.1% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.8% 6.2% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Lanark—Frontenac


Lanark—Frontenac 50% ± 7% CPC 43% ± 7%▼ LPC 4% ± 3% NDP CPC 2025 50.4% 338Canada vote projection | October 5, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lanark—Frontenac 87%▲ CPC 13%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | October 5, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Lanark—Frontenac

LPC 43% ± 7% CPC 50% ± 7% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Lanark—Frontenac 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP October 5, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 63% NDP 16% LPC 12% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 62% NDP 16% LPC 13% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 62% NDP 16% LPC 13% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 59% LPC 17% NDP 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 58% LPC 19% NDP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 57% LPC 21% NDP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 56% LPC 23% NDP 12% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 55% LPC 24% NDP 11% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 24% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 55% LPC 25% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 53% LPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 53% LPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 53% LPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 53% LPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 53% LPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 53% LPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 54% LPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 54% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 54% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 54% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 54% LPC 34% NDP 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 54% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 54% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 54% LPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 55% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 55% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 55% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 55% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 55% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 55% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 55% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 55% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 56% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 56% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 56% LPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 55% LPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 55% LPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 55% LPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 55% LPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 55% LPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 55% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 55% LPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 56% LPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 50% LPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 50% LPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 50% LPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 50% LPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 49% LPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 47% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 4% 2025-10-05 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Lanark—Frontenac

LPC 13% CPC 87% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP October 5, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader