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Canada

Lanark—Frontenac


MP elect: Scott Reid (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Lanark—Frontenac


Liberal Michelle Foxton
Conservative Scott Reid*
NDP Danielle Rae
Green Jesse Pauley

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Lanark—Frontenac 50% ± 0%▼ CPC 45% ± 0%▲ LPC 3% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 50.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lanark—Frontenac 89%▼ CPC 11%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Lanark—Frontenac

LPC 45% ± 0% CPC 50% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Lanark—Frontenac 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 24% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 55% LPC 25% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 54% LPC 28% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 53% LPC 28% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 53% LPC 28% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 53% LPC 28% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 53% LPC 28% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 53% LPC 28% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 53% LPC 31% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 53% LPC 31% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 53% LPC 32% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 53% LPC 32% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 53% LPC 32% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 53% LPC 32% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 54% LPC 32% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 54% LPC 33% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 54% LPC 34% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 54% LPC 34% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 54% LPC 34% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 53% LPC 35% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 53% LPC 35% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 54% LPC 34% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 54% LPC 34% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 54% LPC 35% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 55% LPC 35% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 55% LPC 35% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 56% LPC 35% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 56% LPC 35% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 56% LPC 35% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 55% LPC 35% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 55% LPC 35% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 56% LPC 35% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 50% LPC 45% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Lanark—Frontenac

LPC 11% CPC 89% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Lanark—Frontenac



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 50% ± 0% 49.1% 49.7% 50.3% LPC 45% ± 0% 23.7% 25.8% 45.5% NDP 3% ± 0% 13.9% 15.2% 2.9% GPC 1% ± 0% 11.4% 2.7% 1.3% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.8% 6.2% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.