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Recent electoral history | Lanark—Frontenac


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 47% ± 7% 49.1% 49.7% 50.4% LPC 45% ± 7% 23.7% 25.8% 45.6% NDP 5% ± 3% 13.9% 15.2% 2.9% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.8% 6.2% 0.0%

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338Canada Lanark—Frontenac projection

Latest update: February 22, 2026

Lanark—Frontenac 40% 53% 47% ± 7% CPC 38% 51% 45% ± 7% LPC 2% 9% 5% ± 3% NDP 0% 5% 3% ± 2% GPC CPC 2025 50.4% 338Canada vote projection | February 22, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lanark—Frontenac 64%▲ CPC 36%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 22, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Lanark—Frontenac

LPC 45% ± 7% CPC 47% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Lanark—Frontenac 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC February 22, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 55% LPC 36% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 55% LPC 35% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 56% LPC 35% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 50% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 50% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 50% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 50% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 49% LPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 47% CPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 50% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 46% LPC 42% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 46% LPC 43% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 46% LPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 45% CPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2026-02-22

Odds of winning | Lanark—Frontenac

LPC 36% CPC 64% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 22, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2026-02-22


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Demographic data | Lanark—Frontenac

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 98.3% English 0.9% French 0.1% Arabic 0.1% Spanish 0.1% Russian 0.0% Portuguese 0.0% PolishLanark—FrontenacSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 8.4% No diploma 28.5% High school 7.8% Trade 33.3% College / Cégep 1.5% Some university 14.8% Bachelor's 5.8% PostgraduateLanark—FrontenacSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 97.1% Not visible minority 2.9% Visible minority 0.7% South Asian 0.7% Black 0.3% Chinese 0.2% Latin American 0.2% Filipino 0.2% ArabLanark—FrontenacSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 39.3% No Religion 22.6% Catholic 10.9% United Church 8.9% Anglican 5.9% Christian (n.o.s.) 3.2% Other Christian 2.5% Presbyterian 1.2% MethodistLanark—FrontenacSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 81.9% Owner 18.1% RenterLanark—FrontenacSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 53.6% Employed 41.3% Not in labour force 5.2% UnemployedLanark—FrontenacSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 95.6% Non-Indigenous 4.4% Indigenous identity 2.5% First Nations 1.6% Metis 0.1% Multiple 0.1% Others 0.1% InukLanark—FrontenacSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 92.4% Car / truck / van 4.9% Walking 1.8% Other 0.5% Public transit 0.4% BicycleLanark—FrontenacSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.