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Canada


Hochelaga (federal)


MP: Soraya Martinez Ferrada (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

LPC leaning hold
Hochelaga 33% ± 7% 29% ± 6% 27% ± 6% 6% ± 3% 5% ± 4% LPC 2021 38.02% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Hochelaga 72%▼ 21%▲ 7% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hochelaga

LPC 33% ± 7% CPC 6% ± 3% NDP 27% ± 6% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 29% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Hochelaga 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Hochelaga

LPC 72% CPC <1% NDP 7% GPC <1% BQ 21% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Hochelaga



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 29.9% 34.0% 38.02% 33% ± 7% BQ 27.7% 33.3% 31.48% 29% ± 6% NDP 30.9% 21.6% 20.65% 27% ± 6% CPC 6.8% 4.5% 4.63% 6% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 0.7% 2.27% 1% ± 2% GPC 3.2% 4.9% 2.03% 5% ± 4%