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Canada

Hull—Aylmer



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
LPC safe
Hull—Aylmer 44% ± 8% LPC 16% ± 5% CPC 16% ± 5% BQ 14% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 3% PPC LPC 2021 52.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hull—Aylmer >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hull—Aylmer

LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 16% ± 5% NDP 14% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 16% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Hull—Aylmer 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 48% BQ 16% CPC 15% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 47% BQ 18% CPC 14% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 49% BQ 17% CPC 14% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 49% BQ 16% CPC 14% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 49% BQ 15% CPC 15% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 50% BQ 15% CPC 15% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 45% CPC 17% BQ 16% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 44% CPC 16% BQ 16% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 44% CPC 16% BQ 16% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 45% CPC 16% BQ 16% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 45% BQ 16% CPC 16% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 45% BQ 16% CPC 16% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 47% BQ 15% CPC 15% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 47% BQ 15% CPC 15% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 45% CPC 17% BQ 15% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 46% CPC 16% BQ 15% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 47% CPC 16% BQ 14% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 47% CPC 16% BQ 14% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 46% CPC 16% BQ 15% NDP 13% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 45% CPC 16% BQ 15% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 43% CPC 17% BQ 16% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 43% CPC 16% BQ 16% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 44% CPC 16% BQ 16% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 44% BQ 16% CPC 16% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 45% BQ 16% CPC 15% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 44% BQ 16% CPC 16% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 44% BQ 16% CPC 16% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 44% CPC 16% BQ 16% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Hull—Aylmer

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Hull—Aylmer



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 54.0% 52.5% 44% ± 8% BQ 14.5% 16.1% 16% ± 5% NDP 13.6% 12.7% 14% ± 5% CPC 9.2% 10.8% 16% ± 5% PPC 1.2% 3.7% 3% ± 3% GPC 7.0% 2.8% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.