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Canada

Hull—Aylmer


MP elect: Greg Fergus (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Hull—Aylmer


Liberal Greg Fergus*
Conservative Jill Declare
NDP Pascale Matecki
Green Frederic Morin-Paquette
Bloc Quebecois Alice Grondin
PPC Jean-Jacques Desgranges
Marxist-Leninist Alexandre Deschenes

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Hull—Aylmer 62% ± 6% LPC 17% ± 5% CPC 12% ± 4% BQ 6% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 62.1% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hull—Aylmer >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hull—Aylmer

LPC 62% ± 6% CPC 17% ± 5% NDP 6% ± 3% BQ 12% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Hull—Aylmer 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 39% CPC 20% BQ 18% NDP 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 39% CPC 20% BQ 17% NDP 14% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 39% CPC 20% BQ 17% NDP 14% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 41% CPC 19% BQ 17% NDP 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 45% CPC 18% BQ 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 48% CPC 18% BQ 15% NDP 11% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 50% CPC 18% BQ 14% NDP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 53% CPC 16% BQ 13% NDP 9% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 54% CPC 17% BQ 12% NDP 9% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 56% CPC 16% BQ 12% NDP 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 58% CPC 15% BQ 11% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 58% CPC 15% BQ 11% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 58% CPC 15% BQ 11% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 58% CPC 15% BQ 11% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 58% CPC 15% BQ 11% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 58% CPC 15% BQ 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 61% CPC 14% BQ 11% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 61% CPC 14% BQ 11% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 61% CPC 15% BQ 11% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 62% CPC 15% BQ 11% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 62% CPC 15% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 62% CPC 15% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 63% CPC 15% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 64% CPC 15% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 65% CPC 15% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 66% CPC 15% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 66% CPC 15% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 66% CPC 15% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 66% CPC 15% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 67% CPC 15% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 67% CPC 14% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 67% CPC 14% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 66% CPC 14% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 66% CPC 14% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 65% CPC 14% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 65% CPC 14% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 65% CPC 15% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 65% CPC 14% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 65% CPC 14% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 65% CPC 14% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 65% CPC 14% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 65% CPC 14% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 65% CPC 14% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 65% CPC 14% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 65% CPC 14% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 64% CPC 15% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 64% CPC 15% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 63% CPC 16% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 63% CPC 16% BQ 8% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 63% CPC 16% BQ 8% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 64% CPC 15% BQ 8% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 62% CPC 17% BQ 12% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 62% CPC 17% BQ 12% NDP 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 62% CPC 17% BQ 12% NDP 6% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 62% CPC 17% BQ 12% NDP 6% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Hull—Aylmer

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Hull—Aylmer



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 62% ± 6% 54.0% 52.5% 62.1% CPC 17% ± 5% 9.2% 10.8% 17.0% BQ 12% ± 4% 14.5% 16.1% 12.1% NDP 6% ± 3% 13.6% 12.7% 5.5% GPC 2% ± 2% 7.0% 2.8% 2.2% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.2% 3.7% 0.7% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.