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Don Valley West



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Don Valley West 43% ± 8%▲ LPC 41% ± 8%▼ CPC 11% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 2% GPC LPC 2021 57.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Don Valley West 61%▲ LPC 39%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Don Valley West

LPC 43% ± 8% CPC 41% ± 8% NDP 11% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Don Valley West 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 46% CPC 40% NDP 10% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 46% CPC 40% NDP 10% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 47% CPC 39% NDP 10% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 47% CPC 39% NDP 10% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 47% CPC 39% NDP 10% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 48% CPC 38% NDP 10% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 46% CPC 39% NDP 11% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 43% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 43% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 43% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 43% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 43% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 43% LPC 42% NDP 10% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 43% LPC 42% NDP 10% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 43% CPC 42% NDP 10% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 44% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 45% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 44% LPC 41% NDP 9% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 11% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 11% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 11% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 11% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 11% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 42% CPC 42% NDP 11% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 43% CPC 41% NDP 11% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Don Valley West

LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Don Valley West



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 59.2% 57.2% 43% ± 8% CPC 27.1% 29.9% 41% ± 8% NDP 8.3% 9.2% 11% ± 5% PPC 0.9% 2.5% 1% ± 2% GPC 4.1% 1.1% 3% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.