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Canada

Don Valley West


MP elect: Rob Oliphant (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Don Valley West


Liberal Rob Oliphant*
Conservative Robert Pierce
NDP Linnea Lofstrom-Abary
Green Sheena Sharp
Independent Bahira Abdulsalam

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Don Valley West 63% ± 6%▲ LPC 33% ± 6% CPC LPC 2025 62.6% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Don Valley West >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Don Valley West

LPC 63% ± 6% CPC 33% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Don Valley West 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 46% LPC 37% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 45% LPC 39% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 44% LPC 40% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 42% CPC 42% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 45% CPC 40% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 52% CPC 37% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 52% CPC 37% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 56% CPC 34% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 57% CPC 33% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 57% CPC 33% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 57% CPC 33% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 58% CPC 33% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 58% CPC 34% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 58% CPC 33% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 59% CPC 33% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 59% CPC 33% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 59% CPC 33% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 59% CPC 34% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 60% CPC 33% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 61% CPC 33% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 62% CPC 32% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 61% CPC 32% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 62% CPC 32% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 32% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 61% CPC 33% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 61% CPC 33% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 62% CPC 32% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 62% CPC 32% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 61% CPC 32% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 62% CPC 31% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 62% CPC 31% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 62% CPC 31% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 62% CPC 31% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 62% CPC 31% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 61% CPC 32% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 61% CPC 32% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 61% CPC 32% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 59% CPC 33% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 60% CPC 32% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 61% CPC 32% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 61% CPC 32% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 60% CPC 32% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 60% CPC 32% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 60% CPC 32% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 60% CPC 32% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 61% CPC 32% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 62% CPC 33% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 62% CPC 33% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 62% CPC 33% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 63% CPC 33% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Don Valley West

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Don Valley West



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 63% ± 6% 59.2% 57.2% 62.6% CPC 33% ± 6% 27.1% 29.9% 33.2% NDP 2% ± 2% 8.3% 9.2% 2.4% GPC 1% ± 1% 4.1% 1.1% 1.0% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.9% 2.5% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.