logo
Canada

London West


MP elect: Arielle Kayabaga (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | London West


Liberal Arielle Kayabaga*
Conservative Adam Benni
NDP Shinade Allder
Green Jeff Vanderzwet
Canadian Future Russell Benner
United Christine Oliver

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



London West 56% ± 0%▲ LPC 37% ± 0% CPC 5% ± 0%▼ NDP LPC 2025 56.2% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% London West >99%▲ LPC <1%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | London West

LPC 56% ± 0% CPC 37% ± 0% NDP 5% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | London West 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 17% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 39% LPC 39% NDP 16% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 15% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 15% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 15% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 15% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 15% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 15% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 46% CPC 38% NDP 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 46% CPC 38% NDP 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 47% CPC 37% NDP 12% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 47% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 48% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 48% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 48% CPC 38% NDP 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 10% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 50% CPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 50% CPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 50% CPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 50% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 50% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 50% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 50% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 50% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 50% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 50% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 50% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 49% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 49% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 51% CPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 52% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | London West

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 72% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 78% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 80% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 78% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 81% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 80% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 90% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 89% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 93% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 94% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 95% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 95% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 93% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 95% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 96% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 97% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 97% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 97% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 97% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | London West



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 56% ± 0% 42.7% 36.9% 56.2% CPC 37% ± 0% 29.7% 34.1% 37.1% NDP 5% ± 0% 20.1% 22.9% 5.4% GPC 1% ± 0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.7% IND 1% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.7% 5.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.