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Canada


Markham–Thornhill (federal)


MP: Mary Ng (LPC)


Latest projection: October 1, 2023

LPC safe hold
Markham–Thornhill 62% ± 7% 26% ± 6%▲ 7% ± 3%▼ 5% ± 3% LPC 2021 61.55% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 1, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Markham–Thornhill >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | October 1, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Markham–Thornhill

LPC 62% ± 7% CPC 26% ± 6% NDP 7% ± 3% GPC 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Markham–Thornhill 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Markham–Thornhill

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Markham–Thornhill



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 55.7% 53.9% 61.55% 62% ± 7% CPC 32.3% 34.6% 26.3% 26% ± 6% NDP 10.7% 7.3% 8.37% 7% ± 3% GPC 1.2% 2.8% 2.11% 5% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 0.8% 1.68% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0% ± 0%