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Canada

Yukon



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up CPC/NDP
Yukon 34% ± 9%▲ CPC 32% ± 9%▼ NDP 26% ± 8% LPC 6% ± 5% GPC LPC 2021 33.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Yukon 58%▲ CPC 37%▼ NDP 5%▲ LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Yukon

LPC 26% ± 8% CPC 34% ± 9% NDP 32% ± 9% GPC 6% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Yukon 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 36% NDP 30% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 36% NDP 30% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 35% NDP 30% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 35% NDP 31% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 35% NDP 31% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 33% NDP 32% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 33% NDP 32% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 33% NDP 32% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 33% NDP 32% LPC 26% GPC 6% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 33% NDP 32% LPC 26% GPC 7% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 33% NDP 30% LPC 29% GPC 7% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 33% NDP 30% LPC 29% GPC 7% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 33% NDP 31% LPC 28% GPC 7% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 33% NDP 30% LPC 29% GPC 6% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 33% NDP 30% LPC 29% GPC 6% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 34% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 6% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 33% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 6% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 33% CPC 33% LPC 26% GPC 6% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 33% CPC 33% LPC 26% GPC 6% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 34% CPC 33% LPC 26% GPC 6% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 33% NDP 31% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 34% NDP 31% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 33% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 6% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 34% NDP 32% LPC 26% GPC 6% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Yukon

LPC 5% CPC 58% NDP 37% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 74% NDP 19% LPC 7% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 75% NDP 19% LPC 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 72% NDP 20% LPC 8% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 70% NDP 22% LPC 8% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 66% NDP 26% LPC 8% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 60% NDP 30% LPC 10% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 52% NDP 41% LPC 7% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 47% NDP 46% LPC 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 63% NDP 30% LPC 7% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 63% NDP 30% LPC 8% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 64% NDP 28% LPC 8% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 64% NDP 28% LPC 8% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 52% NDP 41% LPC 7% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 54% NDP 40% LPC 6% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 50% NDP 43% LPC 6% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 57% NDP 26% LPC 17% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 56% NDP 28% LPC 17% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 54% NDP 31% LPC 15% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 58% NDP 26% LPC 16% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 58% NDP 26% LPC 16% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 60% NDP 30% LPC 10% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 52% NDP 43% LPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 50% NDP 46% LPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 49% CPC 46% LPC 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 51% CPC 44% LPC 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 53% CPC 42% LPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 58% NDP 32% LPC 11% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 56% NDP 31% LPC 12% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 60% NDP 32% LPC 8% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 60% NDP 33% LPC 7% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 48% NDP 48% LPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 58% NDP 37% LPC 5% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Yukon



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 33.5% 33.3% 26% ± 8% CPC 32.7% 26.3% 34% ± 9% NDP 22.0% 22.4% 32% ± 9% GPC 10.5% 4.4% 6% ± 5% PPC 1.4% 0.0% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.