Welcome to 338Canada!
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls,
electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at
Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as an occasional panelist for CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.
Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as an occasional panelist for CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.
Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!
Go Jets, Oilers & Leafs (I guess)
338Canada Federal Projection
Latest update: April 29, 2025
Outside of campaigns, federal projections are updated every Sunday.
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today.
The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes.
The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean.
Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding,
past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
Projection of potential coalitions
Not all party combinations are shown on the chart.
These are the probabilities of reaching 172 seats in a coalition by necessity.
For example: the probability of CPC+BQ is the one where the CPC needs the BQ to reach this threshold.