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Welcome to 338Canada!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as an occasional panelist for CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Federal Projection


Latest update: April 6, 2025

Popular vote projection 44% ± 5% LPC 37% ± 4% CPC 8% ± 2% NDP 6% ± 1% BQ 338Canada vote projection | April 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Seat projection | 172 seats for a majority 195▼ [167-226] LPC 122 [95-148] CPC 16 [6-26] BQ 9▲ [1-15] NDP 1 [0-2] GPC 338Canada seat projection | April 6, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.


195 LPC 122 CPC 16 BQ 9 NDP 1 GPC 172 seats ON 81 37 3 1 QC 49 16 12 1 BC 23 19 1 AB 31 5 1 MB 6 5 3 SK 13 1 NS 9 2 NB 7 3 NL 7 PEI 4 YT NWT NU 338Canada federal projections Click on map to see projection details Updated on April 6, 2025

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% Tie Odds of winning | April 6, 2025
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% 338Canada Odds of outcome 91%▼ LPC majority 8%▲ LPC plurality <1% CPC plurality <1% Tie Odds of outcome | April 6, 2025

Projection of potential coalitions


LPC 195 CPC+BQ 138 CPC+NDP 131 CPC 122 338Canada | April 6, 2025Seat projections of potential coalitions* 172 seats
Not all party combinations are shown on the chart.
50% 100% 91% LPC 9% LPC+BQ 7% LPC+NDP 1% LPC+GPC 1% CPC+BQ <1% L+N+G <1% CPC+NDP <1% CPC 338Canada | April 6, 2025Odds of reaching 172 seats
These are the probabilities of reaching 172 seats in a coalition by necessity. For example: the probability of CPC+BQ is the one where the CPC needs the BQ to reach this threshold.


338Canada Vote Projection

LPC 44% ± 5% CPC 37% ± 4% NDP 8% ± 2% GPC 2% ± 1% BQ 6% ± 1% PPC 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins April 6, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 39% LPC 33% NDP 14% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 38% LPC 35% NDP 13% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 38% CPC 38% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 10% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 10% BQ 6% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 2% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 2% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 2% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 2% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 2% 2025-04-06 ▼ Carney LPC leader

338Canada Seat Projection

LPC 195 [167-226] CPC 122 [95-148] NDP 9 [1-15] GPC 1 [0-2] BQ 16 [6-26] Seat projection 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins Majority: 172 seats April 6, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 156 LPC 143 BQ 28 NDP 14 GPC 2 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 150 CPC 149 BQ 27 NDP 15 GPC 2 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 177 CPC 132 BQ 25 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 178 CPC 130 BQ 25 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 178 CPC 129 BQ 25 NDP 9 GPC 2 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 178 CPC 131 BQ 25 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 178 CPC 131 BQ 25 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 178 CPC 130 BQ 25 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 185 CPC 126 BQ 24 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 185 CPC 127 BQ 24 NDP 6 GPC 1 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 187 CPC 126 BQ 23 NDP 6 GPC 1 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 187 CPC 127 BQ 23 NDP 5 GPC 1 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 190 CPC 125 BQ 21 NDP 6 GPC 1 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 192 CPC 125 BQ 19 NDP 6 GPC 1 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 187 CPC 129 BQ 21 NDP 5 GPC 1 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 191 CPC 126 BQ 18 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 193 CPC 125 BQ 17 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 198 CPC 121 BQ 16 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 194 CPC 122 BQ 17 NDP 9 GPC 1 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 196 CPC 122 BQ 16 NDP 8 GPC 1 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 195 CPC 122 BQ 16 NDP 9 GPC 1 2025-04-06 ▼ Carney LPC leader

338Canada Odds of Winning the Most Seats

LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC Tie April 6, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 66% LPC 33% Tie 1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 55% CPC 44% Tie 1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 85% CPC 15% Tie 1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 90% CPC 10% Tie 1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 91% CPC 9% Tie <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 89% CPC 10% Tie 1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 91% CPC 9% Tie 1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 91% CPC 9% Tie <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 98% CPC 2% Tie <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 97% CPC 2% Tie <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% Tie <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-04-06 ▼ Carney LPC leader

338Canada Odds of Election Outcome

LPC majority 91% LPC plurality 8% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% 338Canada Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC majority LPC plurality CPC majority CPC plurality Tie April 6, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC plurality 34% LPC plurality 32% CPC majority 32% LPC majority 2% Tie 1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC plurality 41% CPC plurality 31% LPC majority 14% CPC majority 13% Tie 1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC majority 55% LPC plurality 30% CPC plurality 14% CPC majority 1% Tie 1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC majority 61% LPC plurality 28% CPC plurality 10% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC majority 64% LPC plurality 27% CPC plurality 8% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC majority 62% LPC plurality 27% CPC plurality 10% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC majority 63% LPC plurality 28% CPC plurality 9% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC majority 63% LPC plurality 28% CPC plurality 9% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC majority 79% LPC plurality 19% CPC plurality 2% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC majority 79% LPC plurality 18% CPC plurality 2% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC majority 84% LPC plurality 14% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC majority 85% LPC plurality 14% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC majority 89% LPC plurality 11% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC majority 89% LPC plurality 10% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC majority 84% LPC plurality 14% CPC plurality 2% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC majority 88% LPC plurality 11% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC majority 91% LPC plurality 9% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC majority 93% LPC plurality 7% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC majority 91% LPC plurality 9% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC majority 92% LPC plurality 7% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC majority 91% LPC plurality 8% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-06 ▼ Carney LPC leader