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Welcome to 338Canada!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Federal Projection


Latest update: April 14, 2024

Popular vote projection 42% ± 4% 25% ± 3% 18% ± 3% 8% ± 1% 4% ± 1% 2% ± 2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 170 seats for a majority 206▼ [180-227] 72▲ [51-97] 38 [31-42] 20▼ [13-32] 2 [1-3] 0 338Canada seat projection | April 14, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 14, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% 338Canada Odds of outcome 99% CPC maj. 1% CPC min. <1% LPC min. <1% LPC maj. Odds of outcome | April 14, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Projection of potential coalitions


CPC 206 LPC+BQ 110 L+N+G 94 LPC+NDP 92 LPC+GPC 74 LPC 72 338Canada | April 14, 2024Seat projections of potential coalitions* 170 seats
Not all party combinations are shown on the chart.
50% 100% 99% CPC 1% CPC+BQ 1% CPC+NDP <1% LPC+BQ <1% LPC+GPC <1% L+N+G <1% LPC+NDP <1% LPC 338Canada | April 14, 2024Odds of reaching 170 seats
These are the probabilities of reaching 170 seats in a coalition by necessity. For example: the probability of CPC+BQ is the one where the CPC needs the BQ to reach this threshold.


338Canada popular vote projection

LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC LPC 25% ± 3% CPC 42% ± 4% NDP 18% ± 3% GPC 4% ± 1% BQ 8% ± 1% PPC 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 April 14, 2024

338Canada seat projection

LPC 72 [51-97] CPC 206 [180-227] NDP 20 [13-32] GPC 2 [1-3] BQ 38 [31-42] Seat projection 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ Majority: 170 seats April 14, 2024

338Canada odds of winning the most seats

LPC <1% CPC >99% Tie <1% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC Tie April 14, 2024

338Canada odds of election outcome

CPC majority 99% CPC minority 1% 338Canada Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC majority LPC minority CPC majority CPC minority April 14, 2024