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Canada

Welcome to 338Canada!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Federal Projection


Latest update: September 24, 2023

Popular vote projection 38% ± 4% 29% ± 4% 18% ± 3% 8% ± 1% 4% ± 1% 3% ± 2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 170 seats for a majority 174▼ [138-206] 105▲ [70-138] 37 [31-43] 20▼ [12-35] 2 [1-3] 0 338Canada seat projection | September 24, 2023
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 96%▼ 4%▲ <1% Tie Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% 338Canada Odds of outcome 55%▼ CPC maj. 41%▲ CPC min. 4%▲ LPC min. <1% Tie Odds of outcome | September 24, 2023

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Projection of potential coalitions


CPC 174 LPC+BQ 142 L+N+G 127 LPC+NDP 125 LPC+GPC 107 LPC 105 338Canada | September 24, 2023Seat projections of potential coalitions* 170 seats
Not all party combinations are shown on the chart.
50% 100% 55% CPC 43% CPC+BQ 33% CPC+NDP 9% LPC+BQ 1% LPC+NDP 1% L+N+G <1% LPC+GPC <1% LPC 338Canada | September 24, 2023Odds of reaching 170 seats
These are the probabilities of reaching 170 seats in a coalition by necessity. For example: the probability of CPC+BQ is the one where the CPC needs the BQ to reach this threshold.


338Canada popular vote projection

LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC LPC 29% ± 4% CPC 38% ± 4% NDP 18% ± 3% GPC 4% ± 1% BQ 8% ± 1% PPC 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01

338Canada seat projection

LPC 105 [70-138] CPC 174 [138-206] NDP 20 [12-35] GPC 2 [1-3] BQ 37 [31-43] Seat projection 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ Majority: 170 seats

338Canada odds of winning the most seats

LPC 4% CPC 96% Tie <1% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC Tie

338Canada odds of election outcome

LPC minority 4% CPC majority 55% CPC minority 41% Tie <1% 338Canada Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC minority CPC majority CPC minority Tie