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Welcome to 338Canada!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as an occasional panelist for CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


🔵🟠⚪️Go Oilers!🔵🟠⚪️

338Canada Federal Projection


Latest update: May 25, 2025
Outside of campaigns, federal projections are updated every Sunday.

Popular vote projection 44% ± 3% LPC 41% ± 3% CPC 6% ± 0% BQ 6% ± 1% NDP 1% ± 0% GPC 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Seat projection | 172 seats for a majority 169▼ [145-196] LPC 144▲ [116-168] CPC 22 [18-27] BQ 7 [4-9] NDP 1 [0-2] GPC 338Canada seat projection | May 25, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.


169 LPC 144 CPC 22 BQ 7 NDP 1 GPC 172 seats ON 70 52 QC 44 22 11 1 BC 20 19 3 1 AB 34 2 1 MB 7 6 1 SK 13 1 NS 10 1 NB 6 4 NL 4 3 PEI 4 YT NWT NU 338Canada federal projections Click on map to see projection details Updated on May 25, 2025

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 79%▼ LPC 20%▲ CPC 1% Tie Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% 338Canada Odds of outcome 48%▲ LPC majority 31%▼ LPC plurality 19%▲ CPC plurality 2%▲ CPC majority 1% Tie Odds of outcome | May 25, 2025

Projection of potential coalitions


LPC+BQ 191 L+N+G 177 LPC+NDP 176 LPC+GPC 170 LPC 169 CPC+BQ 166 CPC+NDP 151 CPC 144 338Canada | May 25, 2025Seat projections of potential coalitions* 172 seats
Not all party combinations are shown on the chart.
50% 100% 48% LPC 44% LPC+BQ 34% CPC+BQ 14% LPC+NDP 5% CPC+NDP 3% LPC+GPC 3% L+N+G 2% CPC 338Canada | May 25, 2025Odds of reaching 172 seats
These are the probabilities of reaching 172 seats in a coalition by necessity. For example: the probability of CPC+BQ is the one where the CPC needs the BQ to reach this threshold.


338Canada Vote Projection

LPC 44% ± 3% CPC 41% ± 3% NDP 6% ± 1% GPC 1% ± 0% BQ 6% ± 0% PPC 1% ± 0% Popular vote projection % 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 45% LPC 21% NDP 18% BQ 9% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 45% LPC 21% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 45% LPC 22% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 43% LPC 24% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 42% LPC 26% NDP 16% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 42% LPC 29% NDP 15% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 41% LPC 31% NDP 14% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 39% LPC 33% NDP 14% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 39% LPC 33% NDP 14% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 38% LPC 35% NDP 13% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 38% CPC 38% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 10% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 10% BQ 6% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 2% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 2% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 2% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 2% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 2% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 2% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 2% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 2% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 42% CPC 39% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% PPC 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 44% CPC 41% BQ 6% NDP 6% GPC 1% PPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 44% CPC 41% BQ 6% NDP 6% GPC 1% PPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 44% CPC 41% BQ 6% NDP 6% GPC 1% PPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 44% CPC 41% BQ 6% NDP 6% GPC 1% PPC 1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

338Canada Seat Projection

LPC 169 [145-196] CPC 144 [116-168] NDP 7 [4-9] GPC 1 [0-2] BQ 22 [18-27] Seat projection 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 Majority: 172 seats May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 237 BQ 45 LPC 37 NDP 22 GPC 2 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 238 BQ 42 LPC 41 NDP 21 GPC 1 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 235 LPC 44 BQ 42 NDP 21 GPC 1 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 220 LPC 63 BQ 44 NDP 15 GPC 1 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 205 LPC 84 BQ 40 NDP 12 GPC 2 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 192 LPC 101 BQ 37 NDP 11 GPC 2 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 177 LPC 120 BQ 33 NDP 11 GPC 2 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 160 LPC 139 BQ 28 NDP 14 GPC 2 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 156 LPC 143 BQ 28 NDP 14 GPC 2 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 150 CPC 149 BQ 27 NDP 15 GPC 2 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 177 CPC 132 BQ 25 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 178 CPC 130 BQ 25 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 178 CPC 129 BQ 25 NDP 9 GPC 2 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 178 CPC 131 BQ 25 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 178 CPC 131 BQ 25 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 178 CPC 130 BQ 25 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 185 CPC 126 BQ 24 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 185 CPC 127 BQ 24 NDP 6 GPC 1 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 187 CPC 126 BQ 23 NDP 6 GPC 1 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 187 CPC 127 BQ 23 NDP 5 GPC 1 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 190 CPC 125 BQ 21 NDP 6 GPC 1 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 192 CPC 125 BQ 19 NDP 6 GPC 1 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 187 CPC 129 BQ 21 NDP 5 GPC 1 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 191 CPC 126 BQ 18 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 193 CPC 125 BQ 17 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 198 CPC 121 BQ 16 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 194 CPC 122 BQ 17 NDP 9 GPC 1 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 196 CPC 122 BQ 16 NDP 8 GPC 1 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 195 CPC 122 BQ 16 NDP 9 GPC 1 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 192 CPC 125 BQ 16 NDP 9 GPC 1 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 193 CPC 125 BQ 16 NDP 8 GPC 1 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 191 CPC 125 BQ 19 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 196 CPC 121 BQ 17 NDP 8 GPC 1 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 196 CPC 120 BQ 17 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 193 CPC 122 BQ 18 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 194 CPC 122 BQ 18 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 190 CPC 124 BQ 20 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 191 CPC 124 BQ 19 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 193 CPC 121 BQ 20 NDP 8 GPC 1 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 191 CPC 123 BQ 20 NDP 8 GPC 1 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 189 CPC 123 BQ 22 NDP 8 GPC 1 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 188 CPC 123 BQ 22 NDP 9 GPC 1 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 188 CPC 125 BQ 22 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 184 CPC 126 BQ 23 NDP 9 GPC 1 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 185 CPC 125 BQ 23 NDP 9 GPC 1 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 188 CPC 123 BQ 22 NDP 9 GPC 1 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 186 CPC 124 BQ 24 NDP 8 GPC 1 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 186 CPC 125 BQ 24 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 186 CPC 126 BQ 23 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 187 CPC 125 BQ 23 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 186 CPC 124 BQ 23 NDP 9 GPC 1 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 169 CPC 143 BQ 23 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 170 CPC 143 BQ 22 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 170 CPC 143 BQ 22 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 169 CPC 144 BQ 22 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

338Canada Odds of Winning the Most Seats

LPC 79% CPC 20% Tie 1% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC Tie May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 99% LPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 87% LPC 12% Tie 1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 62% LPC 37% Tie 1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 66% LPC 33% Tie 1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 55% CPC 44% Tie 1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 85% CPC 15% Tie 1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 90% CPC 10% Tie 1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 91% CPC 9% Tie <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 89% CPC 10% Tie 1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 91% CPC 9% Tie 1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 91% CPC 9% Tie <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 98% CPC 2% Tie <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 97% CPC 2% Tie <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% Tie <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 98% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 97% CPC 3% Tie <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 95% CPC 4% Tie <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 91% CPC 8% Tie <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 90% CPC 9% Tie 1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 90% CPC 10% Tie 1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 92% CPC 7% Tie 1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 92% CPC 7% Tie <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 89% CPC 10% Tie <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 89% CPC 11% Tie <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 89% CPC 11% Tie <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 89% CPC 11% Tie 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 85% CPC 14% Tie 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% Tie <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% Tie <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 82% CPC 16% Tie 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 79% CPC 20% Tie 1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

338Canada Odds of Election Outcome

LPC majority 48% LPC plurality 31% CPC majority 2% CPC plurality 19% Tie 1% 338Canada Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC majority LPC plurality CPC majority CPC plurality Tie May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC majority 95% CPC plurality 5% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC majority 74% CPC plurality 25% LPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC majority <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC majority 54% CPC plurality 33% LPC plurality 12% Tie 1% LPC majority <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC plurality 35% CPC plurality 34% CPC majority 28% LPC majority 2% Tie 1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC plurality 34% LPC plurality 32% CPC majority 32% LPC majority 2% Tie 1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC plurality 41% CPC plurality 31% LPC majority 14% CPC majority 13% Tie 1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC majority 55% LPC plurality 30% CPC plurality 14% CPC majority 1% Tie 1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC majority 61% LPC plurality 28% CPC plurality 10% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC majority 64% LPC plurality 27% CPC plurality 8% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC majority 62% LPC plurality 27% CPC plurality 10% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC majority 63% LPC plurality 28% CPC plurality 9% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC majority 63% LPC plurality 28% CPC plurality 9% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC majority 79% LPC plurality 19% CPC plurality 2% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC majority 79% LPC plurality 18% CPC plurality 2% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC majority 84% LPC plurality 14% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC majority 85% LPC plurality 14% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC majority 89% LPC plurality 11% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC majority 89% LPC plurality 10% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC majority 84% LPC plurality 14% CPC plurality 2% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC majority 88% LPC plurality 11% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC majority 91% LPC plurality 9% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC majority 93% LPC plurality 7% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC majority 91% LPC plurality 9% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC majority 92% LPC plurality 7% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC majority 91% LPC plurality 8% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC majority 87% LPC plurality 12% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC majority 87% LPC plurality 12% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC majority 87% LPC plurality 12% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC majority 90% LPC plurality 10% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC majority 89% LPC plurality 11% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC majority 88% LPC plurality 12% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC majority 86% LPC plurality 13% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC majority 84% LPC plurality 15% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC majority 85% LPC plurality 14% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC majority 84% LPC plurality 14% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC majority 80% LPC plurality 18% CPC plurality 3% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC majority 77% LPC plurality 18% CPC plurality 4% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC majority 71% LPC plurality 20% CPC plurality 8% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC majority 70% LPC plurality 20% CPC plurality 9% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC majority 68% LPC plurality 22% CPC plurality 9% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC majority 70% LPC plurality 22% CPC plurality 7% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC majority 72% LPC plurality 20% CPC plurality 7% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC majority 68% LPC plurality 21% CPC plurality 10% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC majority 68% LPC plurality 21% CPC plurality 10% CPC majority <1% Tie <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC majority 67% LPC plurality 22% CPC plurality 10% CPC majority <1% Tie <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC majority 66% LPC plurality 22% CPC plurality 11% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC majority 65% LPC plurality 20% CPC plurality 13% CPC majority 1% Tie 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC plurality 81% LPC majority 19% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC plurality 80% LPC majority 20% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC majority 41% LPC plurality 41% CPC plurality 16% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC majority 48% LPC plurality 31% CPC plurality 19% CPC majority 2% Tie 1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader