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Canada

Welcome to 338Canada!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as an occasional panelist for CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Federal Projection


Latest update: April 1, 2025

Popular vote projection 43% ± 5%▲ LPC 38% ± 4% CPC 8% ± 2%▼ NDP 6% ± 1% BQ 3% ± 1% GPC 338Canada vote projection | April 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Seat projection | 172 seats for a majority 191▲ [164-220] LPC 126▼ [101-150] CPC 18▼ [9-27] BQ 7▲ [1-13] NDP 1 [0-2] GPC 338Canada seat projection | April 1, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.


191 LPC 126 CPC 18 BQ 7 NDP 1 GPC 172 seats ON 81 39 1 1 QC 46 18 13 1 BC 24 18 1 AB 32 4 1 MB 6 6 2 SK 13 1 NS 9 2 NB 7 3 NL 7 PEI 4 YT NWT NU 338Canada federal projections Click on map to see projection details Updated on April 1, 2025

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 99%▲ LPC 1%▼ CPC <1% Tie Odds of winning | April 1, 2025
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% 338Canada Odds of outcome 88%▲ LPC majority 11%▼ LPC plurality 1%▼ CPC plurality <1% Tie Odds of outcome | April 1, 2025

Projection of potential coalitions


LPC 191 CPC+BQ 144 CPC+NDP 133 CPC 126 338Canada | April 1, 2025Seat projections of potential coalitions* 172 seats
Not all party combinations are shown on the chart.
50% 100% 88% LPC 12% LPC+BQ 9% LPC+NDP 3% CPC+BQ 1% LPC+GPC 1% L+N+G <1% CPC+NDP <1% CPC 338Canada | April 1, 2025Odds of reaching 172 seats
These are the probabilities of reaching 172 seats in a coalition by necessity. For example: the probability of CPC+BQ is the one where the CPC needs the BQ to reach this threshold.


338Canada Vote Projection

LPC 43% ± 5% CPC 38% ± 4% NDP 8% ± 2% GPC 3% ± 1% BQ 6% ± 1% PPC 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 April 1, 2025 2024-01-14 CPC 40% LPC 26% NDP 19% BQ 7% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 CPC 40% LPC 27% NDP 19% BQ 7% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 CPC 40% LPC 26% NDP 19% BQ 8% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 CPC 40% LPC 26% NDP 19% BQ 8% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 CPC 41% LPC 26% NDP 19% BQ 7% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 CPC 41% LPC 25% NDP 19% BQ 7% GPC 5% PPC 2% 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 CPC 42% LPC 25% NDP 19% BQ 7% GPC 5% PPC 2% 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 CPC 41% LPC 25% NDP 19% BQ 7% GPC 5% PPC 2% 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 19% BQ 7% GPC 5% PPC 2% 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 19% BQ 7% GPC 5% PPC 2% 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 CPC 42% LPC 25% NDP 19% BQ 7% GPC 5% PPC 2% 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 19% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 CPC 42% LPC 25% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 CPC 42% LPC 25% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 CPC 41% LPC 25% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 CPC 44% LPC 24% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 CPC 44% LPC 24% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 43% LPC 24% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 43% LPC 25% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 43% LPC 25% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 43% LPC 25% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 42% LPC 25% NDP 17% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 41% LPC 25% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 42% LPC 25% NDP 17% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 42% LPC 25% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 43% LPC 24% NDP 16% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 43% LPC 24% NDP 16% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 43% LPC 23% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 43% LPC 22% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 43% LPC 23% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 42% LPC 23% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 42% LPC 23% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 42% LPC 23% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 42% LPC 24% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 43% LPC 23% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 43% LPC 22% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 43% LPC 22% NDP 19% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 43% LPC 22% NDP 19% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 45% LPC 20% NDP 19% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 44% LPC 21% NDP 19% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 45% LPC 20% NDP 19% BQ 9% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 45% LPC 21% NDP 18% BQ 9% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 45% LPC 21% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 45% LPC 22% NDP 18% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 43% LPC 24% NDP 17% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 42% LPC 26% NDP 16% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 42% LPC 29% NDP 15% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 41% LPC 31% NDP 14% BQ 8% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 39% LPC 33% NDP 14% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 39% LPC 33% NDP 14% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 38% LPC 35% NDP 13% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 38% CPC 38% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 39% CPC 37% NDP 11% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 10% BQ 7% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 10% BQ 6% GPC 4% PPC 2% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 42% CPC 37% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 43% CPC 38% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 3% PPC 2% 2025-04-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

338Canada Seat Projection

LPC 191 [164-220] CPC 126 [101-150] NDP 7 [1-13] GPC 1 [0-2] BQ 18 [9-27] Seat projection 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 Majority: 172 seats April 1, 2025 2024-01-14 CPC 193 LPC 82 BQ 34 NDP 27 GPC 2 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 CPC 198 LPC 81 BQ 32 NDP 25 GPC 2 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 CPC 199 LPC 73 BQ 38 NDP 26 GPC 2 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 CPC 199 LPC 74 BQ 37 NDP 26 GPC 2 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 CPC 203 LPC 70 BQ 36 NDP 27 GPC 2 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 CPC 208 LPC 64 BQ 38 NDP 26 GPC 2 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 CPC 210 LPC 62 BQ 38 NDP 26 GPC 2 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 CPC 206 LPC 67 BQ 38 NDP 25 GPC 2 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 CPC 210 LPC 63 BQ 37 NDP 26 GPC 2 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 CPC 211 LPC 64 BQ 36 NDP 25 GPC 2 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 CPC 210 LPC 63 BQ 38 NDP 25 GPC 2 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 CPC 210 LPC 63 BQ 38 NDP 25 GPC 2 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 CPC 208 LPC 69 BQ 38 NDP 21 GPC 2 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 CPC 206 LPC 72 BQ 38 NDP 20 GPC 2 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 CPC 207 LPC 74 BQ 40 NDP 20 GPC 2 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 CPC 211 LPC 67 BQ 39 NDP 24 GPC 2 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 CPC 220 LPC 64 BQ 38 NDP 19 GPC 2 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 CPC 220 LPC 64 BQ 38 NDP 19 GPC 2 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 217 LPC 64 BQ 40 NDP 20 GPC 2 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 211 LPC 71 BQ 40 NDP 19 GPC 2 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 212 LPC 72 BQ 37 NDP 20 GPC 2 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 211 LPC 74 BQ 36 NDP 20 GPC 2 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 206 LPC 80 BQ 34 NDP 21 GPC 2 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 209 LPC 70 BQ 38 NDP 24 GPC 2 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 218 LPC 67 BQ 38 NDP 18 GPC 2 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 213 LPC 72 BQ 38 NDP 18 GPC 2 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 214 LPC 71 BQ 38 NDP 18 GPC 2 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 212 LPC 74 BQ 38 NDP 17 GPC 2 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 212 LPC 73 BQ 38 NDP 18 GPC 2 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 212 LPC 69 BQ 38 NDP 22 GPC 2 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 214 LPC 70 BQ 37 NDP 20 GPC 2 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 209 LPC 75 BQ 37 NDP 20 GPC 2 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 203 LPC 83 BQ 36 NDP 19 GPC 2 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 210 LPC 81 BQ 34 NDP 16 GPC 2 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 212 LPC 77 BQ 36 NDP 16 GPC 2 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 219 LPC 68 BQ 40 NDP 14 GPC 2 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 220 LPC 64 BQ 42 NDP 15 GPC 2 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 221 LPC 61 BQ 42 NDP 17 GPC 2 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 228 LPC 53 BQ 42 NDP 18 GPC 2 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 222 LPC 57 BQ 42 NDP 20 GPC 2 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 219 LPC 58 BQ 43 NDP 21 GPC 2 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 217 LPC 59 BQ 44 NDP 21 GPC 2 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 215 LPC 60 BQ 44 NDP 22 GPC 2 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 215 LPC 64 BQ 44 NDP 18 GPC 2 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 214 LPC 66 BQ 44 NDP 17 GPC 2 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 224 LPC 56 BQ 43 NDP 18 GPC 2 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 229 LPC 51 BQ 42 NDP 19 GPC 2 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 227 LPC 47 BQ 45 NDP 22 GPC 2 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 226 LPC 47 BQ 45 NDP 23 GPC 2 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 232 BQ 45 LPC 39 NDP 25 GPC 2 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 232 BQ 45 LPC 39 NDP 25 GPC 2 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 236 BQ 45 LPC 35 NDP 25 GPC 2 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 237 BQ 45 LPC 37 NDP 22 GPC 2 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 238 BQ 42 LPC 41 NDP 21 GPC 1 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 235 LPC 44 BQ 42 NDP 21 GPC 1 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 220 LPC 63 BQ 44 NDP 15 GPC 1 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 205 LPC 84 BQ 40 NDP 12 GPC 2 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 192 LPC 101 BQ 37 NDP 11 GPC 2 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 177 LPC 120 BQ 33 NDP 11 GPC 2 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 160 LPC 139 BQ 28 NDP 14 GPC 2 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 156 LPC 143 BQ 28 NDP 14 GPC 2 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 150 CPC 149 BQ 27 NDP 15 GPC 2 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 177 CPC 132 BQ 25 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 178 CPC 130 BQ 25 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 178 CPC 129 BQ 25 NDP 9 GPC 2 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 178 CPC 131 BQ 25 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 178 CPC 131 BQ 25 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 178 CPC 130 BQ 25 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 185 CPC 126 BQ 24 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 185 CPC 127 BQ 24 NDP 6 GPC 1 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 187 CPC 126 BQ 23 NDP 6 GPC 1 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 187 CPC 127 BQ 23 NDP 5 GPC 1 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 190 CPC 125 BQ 21 NDP 6 GPC 1 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 192 CPC 125 BQ 19 NDP 6 GPC 1 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 187 CPC 129 BQ 21 NDP 5 GPC 1 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 191 CPC 126 BQ 18 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

338Canada Odds of Winning the Most Seats

LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC Tie April 1, 2025 2024-01-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% Tie <1% 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% Tie <1% 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% Tie <1% 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% Tie <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 99% LPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 87% LPC 12% Tie 1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 62% LPC 37% Tie 1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 66% LPC 33% Tie 1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 55% CPC 44% Tie 1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 85% CPC 15% Tie 1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 90% CPC 10% Tie 1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 91% CPC 9% Tie <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 89% CPC 10% Tie 1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 91% CPC 9% Tie 1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 91% CPC 9% Tie <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 98% CPC 2% Tie <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 97% CPC 2% Tie <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% Tie <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% Tie <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 99% CPC 1% Tie <1% 2025-04-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

338Canada Odds of Election Outcome

LPC majority 88% LPC plurality 11% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% 338Canada Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC majority LPC plurality CPC majority CPC plurality Tie April 1, 2025 2024-01-14 CPC majority 89% CPC plurality 11% LPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 CPC majority 91% CPC plurality 9% LPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 CPC majority 95% CPC plurality 5% LPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 CPC majority 95% CPC plurality 5% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 CPC majority 97% CPC plurality 3% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 CPC majority 98% CPC plurality 2% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 CPC majority 98% CPC plurality 2% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC majority 99% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC majority 98% CPC plurality 2% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC majority >99% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC majority >99% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC majority 95% CPC plurality 5% Tie <1% LPC plurality <1% LPC majority <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC majority 74% CPC plurality 25% LPC plurality 1% Tie <1% LPC majority <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC majority 54% CPC plurality 33% LPC plurality 12% Tie 1% LPC majority <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC plurality 35% CPC plurality 34% CPC majority 28% LPC majority 2% Tie 1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC plurality 34% LPC plurality 32% CPC majority 32% LPC majority 2% Tie 1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC plurality 41% CPC plurality 31% LPC majority 14% CPC majority 13% Tie 1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC majority 55% LPC plurality 30% CPC plurality 14% CPC majority 1% Tie 1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC majority 61% LPC plurality 28% CPC plurality 10% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC majority 64% LPC plurality 27% CPC plurality 8% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC majority 62% LPC plurality 27% CPC plurality 10% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC majority 63% LPC plurality 28% CPC plurality 9% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC majority 63% LPC plurality 28% CPC plurality 9% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC majority 79% LPC plurality 19% CPC plurality 2% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC majority 79% LPC plurality 18% CPC plurality 2% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC majority 84% LPC plurality 14% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC majority 85% LPC plurality 14% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC majority 89% LPC plurality 11% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC majority 89% LPC plurality 10% CPC plurality <1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC majority 84% LPC plurality 14% CPC plurality 2% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC majority 88% LPC plurality 11% CPC plurality 1% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader