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Canada

Welcome to 338Canada!


338Canada is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data.

This website is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L’actualité, as well as a regular contributor to Politico Canada and The Walrus.

He also appears as a panelist on CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter to stay updated — and enjoy the website!


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338Canada Federal Projection


Latest update: January 4, 2026
Outside of campaigns, federal projections are updated every Sunday.
Popular vote projection 36% 43% 39% ± 4% LPC 35% 42% 38% ± 4% CPC 8% 13% 10% ± 3% NDP 6% 8% 7% ± 1% BQ 1% 4% 3% ± 1% GPC 338Canada vote projection | January 4, 2026
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Seat projection | 172 seats for a majority 156 [122-190] LPC 142 [108-178] CPC 31 [23-37] BQ 12 [7-18] NDP 2 [1-2] GPC 338Canada seat projection | January 4, 2026
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.


156 LPC 142 CPC 31 BQ 12 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats ON 67 53 1 1 QC 38 31 8 1 BC 20 15 7 1 AB 34 2 1 MB 7 6 1 SK 13 1 NS 11 NB 6 4 NL 4 3 PEI 4 YT NWT NU 338Canada federal projections Click on map to see projection details Updated on January 4, 2026

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 59%▲ LPC 41% CPC 1% Tie Odds of winning | January 4, 2026
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
LPC majority: 26% LPC plurality: 33% CPC majority: 9% CPC plurality: 32% 338Canada Odds of outcomeOdds of outcome | January 4, 2026


338Canada Vote Projection

LPC 39% ± 4% CPC 38% ± 4% NDP 10% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 1% BQ 7% ± 1% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 January 4, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 42% CPC 38% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 42% CPC 39% NDP 9% BQ 6% GPC 2% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 8% BQ 6% GPC 2% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 44% CPC 41% BQ 6% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 44% CPC 41% BQ 6% NDP 6% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 44% CPC 41% BQ 6% NDP 6% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 44% CPC 41% BQ 6% NDP 6% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 44% CPC 41% BQ 6% NDP 6% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 44% CPC 41% NDP 6% BQ 6% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 44% CPC 41% NDP 7% BQ 6% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 44% CPC 40% NDP 7% BQ 6% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 45% CPC 40% NDP 7% BQ 6% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 45% CPC 39% NDP 7% BQ 6% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 46% CPC 39% NDP 7% BQ 6% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 46% CPC 39% NDP 7% BQ 6% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 46% CPC 39% NDP 7% BQ 6% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 46% CPC 38% NDP 7% BQ 6% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 45% CPC 38% NDP 8% BQ 6% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 45% CPC 38% NDP 8% BQ 6% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 44% CPC 39% NDP 8% BQ 6% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 44% CPC 39% NDP 8% BQ 6% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 43% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 44% CPC 39% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 8% BQ 6% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 43% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 6% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 43% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 42% CPC 39% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% BQ 7% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 9% BQ 7% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 39% CPC 38% NDP 10% BQ 7% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 39% CPC 38% NDP 10% BQ 7% GPC 3% 2026-01-04

338Canada Seat Projection

LPC 156 [122-190] CPC 142 [108-178] NDP 12 [7-18] GPC 2 [1-2] BQ 31 [23-37] Seat projection 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 Majority: 172 seats January 4, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 186 CPC 126 BQ 23 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 187 CPC 125 BQ 23 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 186 CPC 124 BQ 23 NDP 9 GPC 1 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 169 CPC 143 BQ 23 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 170 CPC 143 BQ 22 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 170 CPC 143 BQ 22 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 169 CPC 144 BQ 22 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 169 CPC 144 BQ 22 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 170 CPC 142 BQ 23 NDP 7 GPC 1 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 170 CPC 140 BQ 24 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 175 CPC 135 BQ 24 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 179 CPC 133 BQ 22 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 185 CPC 127 BQ 21 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 193 CPC 121 BQ 19 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 196 CPC 118 BQ 19 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 192 CPC 121 BQ 20 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 195 CPC 119 BQ 19 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 192 CPC 116 BQ 21 NDP 12 GPC 2 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 191 CPC 117 BQ 22 NDP 11 GPC 2 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 182 CPC 127 BQ 22 NDP 10 GPC 2 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 180 CPC 127 BQ 23 NDP 11 GPC 2 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 170 CPC 134 BQ 26 NDP 11 GPC 2 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 172 CPC 134 BQ 25 NDP 10 GPC 2 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 175 CPC 132 BQ 25 NDP 9 GPC 2 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 166 CPC 142 BQ 25 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 165 CPC 143 BQ 25 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 166 CPC 141 BQ 26 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 166 CPC 141 BQ 26 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 169 CPC 139 BQ 26 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 170 CPC 137 BQ 26 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 171 CPC 138 BQ 25 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 170 CPC 139 BQ 25 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 166 CPC 142 BQ 26 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 166 CPC 142 BQ 26 NDP 7 GPC 2 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 167 CPC 139 BQ 27 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 164 CPC 142 BQ 27 NDP 8 GPC 2 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 161 CPC 141 BQ 30 NDP 9 GPC 2 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 156 CPC 142 BQ 31 NDP 12 GPC 2 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 156 CPC 142 BQ 31 NDP 12 GPC 2 2026-01-04

338Canada Odds of Winning the Most Seats

LPC 59% CPC 41% Tie 1% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC Tie January 4, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 89% CPC 11% Tie <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 89% CPC 11% Tie 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 85% CPC 14% Tie 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% Tie <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% Tie <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 82% CPC 16% Tie 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 79% CPC 20% Tie 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 70% CPC 30% Tie 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 70% CPC 30% Tie 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 72% CPC 27% Tie 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 79% CPC 20% Tie 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 81% CPC 18% Tie 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 85% CPC 15% Tie <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 90% CPC 10% Tie <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 92% CPC 8% Tie <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 91% CPC 9% Tie <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 93% CPC 7% Tie <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 93% CPC 7% Tie <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 95% CPC 5% Tie <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 86% CPC 14% Tie 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 86% CPC 14% Tie 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 76% CPC 23% Tie 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 80% CPC 19% Tie 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 82% CPC 18% Tie 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 71% CPC 28% Tie 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 70% CPC 30% Tie 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 71% CPC 28% Tie 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 73% CPC 27% Tie 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 75% CPC 24% Tie 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 76% CPC 23% Tie 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 79% CPC 20% Tie 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 76% CPC 24% Tie 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 69% CPC 30% Tie 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 68% CPC 32% Tie 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 74% CPC 26% Tie 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 71% CPC 28% Tie 1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 69% CPC 31% Tie 1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 58% CPC 41% Tie 1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 59% CPC 41% Tie 1% 2026-01-04

338Canada Odds of Election Outcome

LPC majority 26% LPC plurality 33% CPC majority 9% CPC plurality 32% Tie 1% 338Canada Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC majority LPC plurality CPC majority CPC plurality Tie January 4, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC majority 67% LPC plurality 22% CPC plurality 10% CPC majority <1% Tie <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC majority 66% LPC plurality 22% CPC plurality 11% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC majority 65% LPC plurality 20% CPC plurality 13% CPC majority 1% Tie 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC plurality 81% LPC majority 19% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC plurality 80% LPC majority 20% Tie <1% CPC plurality <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC majority 41% LPC plurality 41% CPC plurality 16% Tie 1% CPC majority <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC majority 48% LPC plurality 31% CPC plurality 19% CPC majority 2% Tie 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC majority 49% LPC plurality 21% CPC plurality 18% CPC majority 12% Tie 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC majority 49% LPC plurality 20% CPC plurality 18% CPC majority 11% Tie 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC majority 51% LPC plurality 21% CPC plurality 19% CPC majority 8% Tie 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC majority 58% LPC plurality 21% CPC plurality 16% CPC majority 4% Tie 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC majority 63% LPC plurality 18% CPC plurality 14% CPC majority 4% Tie 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC majority 69% LPC plurality 16% CPC plurality 12% CPC majority 3% Tie <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC majority 76% LPC plurality 14% CPC plurality 9% CPC majority 1% Tie <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC majority 78% LPC plurality 14% CPC plurality 7% CPC majority 1% Tie <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC majority 76% LPC plurality 15% CPC plurality 8% CPC majority 1% Tie <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC majority 78% LPC plurality 14% CPC plurality 7% CPC majority <1% Tie <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC majority 76% LPC plurality 17% CPC plurality 7% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC majority 78% LPC plurality 16% CPC plurality 5% Tie <1% CPC majority <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC majority 64% LPC plurality 21% CPC plurality 13% CPC majority 1% Tie 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC majority 64% LPC plurality 22% CPC plurality 13% CPC majority 1% Tie 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC majority 50% LPC plurality 26% CPC plurality 20% CPC majority 4% Tie 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC majority 56% LPC plurality 24% CPC plurality 16% CPC majority 3% Tie 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC majority 57% LPC plurality 25% CPC plurality 16% CPC majority 2% Tie 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC majority 45% LPC plurality 26% CPC plurality 21% CPC majority 7% Tie 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC majority 43% LPC plurality 27% CPC plurality 22% CPC majority 8% Tie 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC majority 44% LPC plurality 28% CPC plurality 22% CPC majority 6% Tie 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC majority 43% LPC plurality 30% CPC plurality 21% CPC majority 5% Tie 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC majority 46% LPC plurality 30% CPC plurality 20% CPC majority 4% Tie 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC majority 46% LPC plurality 30% CPC plurality 20% CPC majority 3% Tie 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC majority 50% LPC plurality 29% CPC plurality 18% CPC majority 2% Tie 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC majority 47% LPC plurality 29% CPC plurality 20% CPC majority 3% Tie 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC majority 40% LPC plurality 30% CPC plurality 24% CPC majority 6% Tie 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC majority 41% LPC plurality 27% CPC plurality 23% CPC majority 8% Tie 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC majority 44% LPC plurality 29% CPC plurality 23% CPC majority 3% Tie 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC majority 40% LPC plurality 31% CPC plurality 25% CPC majority 4% Tie 1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC majority 36% LPC plurality 33% CPC plurality 27% CPC majority 4% Tie 1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC plurality 33% CPC plurality 32% LPC majority 26% CPC majority 9% Tie 1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC plurality 33% CPC plurality 32% LPC majority 26% CPC majority 9% Tie 1% 2026-01-04

Projection of potential coalitions


LPC+BQ 187 CPC+BQ 173 L+N+G 170 LPC+NDP 168 LPC+GPC 158 LPC 156 CPC+NDP 154 CPC 142 338Canada | January 4, 2026Seat projections of potential coalitions* 172 seats
Not all party combinations are shown on the chart.
50% 100% 47% LPC+BQ 45% CPC+BQ 26% LPC 17% LPC+NDP 16% CPC+NDP 9% CPC 3% L+N+G 2% LPC+GPC 338Canada | January 4, 2026Odds of reaching 172 seats
These are the probabilities of reaching 172 seats in a coalition by necessity. For example: the probability of CPC+BQ is the one where the CPC needs the BQ to reach this threshold.