Welcome to 338Canada!
338Canada is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data.
This website is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L’actualité, as well as a regular contributor to Politico Canada and The Walrus.
He also appears as a panelist on CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.
Subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter to stay updated — and enjoy the website!
Latest Federal Polls
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338Canada Federal Projection
Latest update: September 14, 2025
Outside of campaigns, federal projections are updated every Sunday.
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today.
The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes.
The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean.
Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding,
past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
Projection of potential coalitions
Not all party combinations are shown on the chart.
These are the probabilities of reaching 172 seats in a coalition by necessity.
For example: the probability of CPC+BQ is the one where the CPC needs the BQ to reach this threshold.