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Canada

Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata


MP: Bernard Genereux (CPC)

Latest projection: July 13, 2025
CPC likely

Recent electoral history | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 42% ± 8% 37.3% 44.9% 45.8% LPC 34% ± 7% 17.2% 19.1% 30.3% BQ 19% ± 5% 32.9% 29.8% 20.0% NDP 2% ± 2% 9.8% 3.4% 1.7% GPC 1% ± 1% 2.0% 0.0% 1.1% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata


Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata 42% ± 8% CPC 34% ± 7% LPC 19% ± 5%▼ BQ CPC 2025 45.8% 338Canada vote projection | July 13, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata 90%▼ CPC 10%▲ LPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | July 13, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata

LPC 34% ± 7% CPC 42% ± 8% BQ 19% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ July 13, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 52% BQ 31% LPC 9% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 53% BQ 30% LPC 9% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 53% BQ 30% LPC 9% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 52% BQ 31% LPC 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 52% BQ 29% LPC 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 52% BQ 29% LPC 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 52% BQ 28% LPC 13% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 50% BQ 26% LPC 15% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 51% BQ 25% LPC 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% BQ 25% LPC 16% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% BQ 24% LPC 18% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% BQ 24% LPC 18% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 49% BQ 24% LPC 18% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% BQ 24% LPC 18% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 49% BQ 25% LPC 18% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 49% BQ 25% LPC 18% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 47% BQ 24% LPC 20% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 47% BQ 24% LPC 21% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 48% BQ 24% LPC 21% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 49% BQ 23% LPC 21% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 49% BQ 22% LPC 21% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 49% BQ 22% LPC 21% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 49% BQ 22% LPC 22% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 51% LPC 22% BQ 20% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 51% LPC 23% BQ 20% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 51% LPC 23% BQ 19% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 51% LPC 23% BQ 19% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 51% LPC 24% BQ 19% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 51% LPC 24% BQ 19% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 52% LPC 24% BQ 19% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 52% LPC 23% BQ 19% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 52% LPC 23% BQ 19% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 52% LPC 23% BQ 18% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 53% LPC 23% BQ 18% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 53% LPC 22% BQ 18% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 54% LPC 22% BQ 18% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 54% LPC 22% BQ 17% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 53% LPC 23% BQ 17% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 51% LPC 25% BQ 16% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 50% LPC 26% BQ 17% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 50% LPC 26% BQ 17% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 50% LPC 26% BQ 17% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 50% LPC 26% BQ 17% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 50% LPC 25% BQ 18% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 48% LPC 27% BQ 18% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 48% LPC 26% BQ 19% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 48% LPC 25% BQ 19% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 49% LPC 25% BQ 19% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 49% LPC 25% BQ 19% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 49% LPC 25% BQ 19% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 47% LPC 27% BQ 19% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 46% LPC 30% BQ 20% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 46% LPC 30% BQ 20% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 46% LPC 30% BQ 20% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 46% LPC 30% BQ 20% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 46% LPC 30% BQ 20% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 45% LPC 30% BQ 20% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 45% LPC 31% BQ 21% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 44% LPC 31% BQ 21% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 43% LPC 33% BQ 20% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 42% LPC 34% BQ 20% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 42% LPC 34% BQ 19% 2025-07-13 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata

LPC 10% CPC 90% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 13, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader