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Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix (federal)


MP: Caroline Desbeins (BQ)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

BQ likely hold
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix 42% ± 7%▲ 32% ± 7% 17% ± 5% 5% ± 3% 3% ± 3% BQ 2021 38.49% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix 95%▲ 5%▼ <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix

LPC 17% ± 5% CPC 32% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 3% BQ 42% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix

LPC <1% CPC 5% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ 95% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix



2015 2019 2021 Proj. BQ 19.1% 36.4% 38.49% 42% ± 7% CPC 33.5% 29.7% 31.7% 32% ± 7% LPC 26.9% 20.9% 20.63% 17% ± 5% NDP 18.4% 5.6% 4.49% 5% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 2.1% 1.78% 1% ± 1% GPC 1.7% 2.7% 1.54% 3% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.47% 0% ± 0%