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Canada

Newmarket—Aurora


MP elect: Sandra Cobena (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Newmarket—Aurora


Liberal Jennifer McLachlan
Conservative Sandra Cobena
NDP Anna Gollen

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Newmarket—Aurora 51% ± 0%▲ CPC 47% ± 0%▼ LPC CPC 2025 50.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Newmarket—Aurora 83%▲ CPC 17%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Newmarket—Aurora

LPC 47% ± 0% CPC 51% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Newmarket—Aurora 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 43% LPC 42% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 44% CPC 42% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 47% CPC 40% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 48% CPC 40% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 48% CPC 39% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 40% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 48% CPC 39% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 48% CPC 39% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 55% CPC 40% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 55% CPC 40% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 54% CPC 41% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 54% CPC 42% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 52% CPC 43% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 53% CPC 43% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 51% LPC 47% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Newmarket—Aurora

LPC 17% CPC 83% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Newmarket—Aurora



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 51% ± 0% 37.9% 38.2% 50.8% LPC 47% ± 0% 43.0% 43.8% 46.8% NDP 2% ± 0% 10.8% 11.6% 2.4% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.0% 4.2% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 5.7% 1.8% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.