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Canada


Niagara West (federal)


MP: Dean Allison (CPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

CPC safe hold
Niagara West 53% ± 8% 23% ± 6% 13% ± 5% 7% ± 4% 4% ± 4% CPC 2021 45.66% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Niagara West >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Niagara West

LPC 23% ± 6% CPC 53% ± 8% NDP 13% ± 5% GPC 7% ± 4% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Niagara West 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Odds of winning | Niagara West

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Niagara West



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 48.8% 45.3% 45.66% 53% ± 8% LPC 32.7% 32.3% 30.38% 23% ± 6% NDP 11.5% 12.1% 12.74% 13% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.6% 7.11% 4% ± 4% GPC 3.0% 6.7% 2.9% 7% ± 4%