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Canada

Newmarket—Aurora



Latest projection: January 12, 2025
CPC safe
Newmarket—Aurora 52% ± 8%▲ CPC 28% ± 7%▲ LPC 14% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 43.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 12, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Newmarket—Aurora >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 12, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Newmarket—Aurora

LPC 28% ± 7% CPC 52% ± 8% NDP 14% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Newmarket—Aurora 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC January 12, 2025 2024-05-12 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 48% LPC 34% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 48% LPC 34% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 48% LPC 34% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 47% LPC 35% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 47% LPC 33% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 47% LPC 33% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 47% LPC 32% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 47% LPC 32% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 46% LPC 33% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 46% LPC 34% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 46% LPC 34% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 47% LPC 34% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 49% LPC 32% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 48% LPC 31% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 48% LPC 32% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 48% LPC 32% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 47% LPC 33% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 50% LPC 29% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 50% LPC 29% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 51% LPC 28% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 51% LPC 28% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 51% LPC 27% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2025-01-12 ▼ O’Toole resigns ▼ Poilievre CPC leader ▼ Trudeau resigns

Odds of winning | Newmarket—Aurora

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 12, 2025 2024-05-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 ▼ O’Toole resigns ▼ Poilievre CPC leader ▼ Trudeau resigns

Recent electoral history | Newmarket—Aurora



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 37.9% 38.2% 52% ± 8% LPC 43.0% 43.8% 28% ± 7% NDP 10.8% 11.6% 14% ± 5% GPC 5.7% 1.8% 4% ± 3% PPC 1.0% 4.2% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.