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Canada

Dufferin—Caledon


MP elect: Kyle Seeback (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Dufferin—Caledon


Liberal Malalai Halimi
Conservative Kyle Seeback*
NDP Viktor Karklins
Green Ifra Baig
PPC Dympna Carolan
Independent Jeffrey Halsall

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Dufferin—Caledon 60% ± 6%▲ CPC 35% ± 6%▲ LPC CPC 2025 60.1% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Dufferin—Caledon >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Dufferin—Caledon

LPC 35% ± 6% CPC 60% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Dufferin—Caledon 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 63% LPC 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 62% LPC 15% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 62% LPC 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 59% LPC 19% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 58% LPC 21% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 57% LPC 23% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 56% LPC 25% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 54% LPC 26% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 55% LPC 26% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 54% LPC 27% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 53% LPC 30% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 52% LPC 30% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 52% LPC 30% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 52% LPC 30% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 52% LPC 31% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 52% LPC 31% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 51% LPC 33% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 52% LPC 33% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 51% LPC 33% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 51% LPC 34% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 51% LPC 34% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 51% LPC 34% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 52% LPC 34% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 53% LPC 35% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 53% LPC 37% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 51% LPC 36% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 52% LPC 36% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 51% LPC 36% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 52% LPC 36% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 52% LPC 35% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 52% LPC 36% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 52% LPC 36% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 52% LPC 36% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 51% LPC 36% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 51% LPC 36% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 51% LPC 36% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 52% LPC 36% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 52% LPC 36% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 59% LPC 34% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 59% LPC 34% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 59% LPC 34% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 60% LPC 35% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Dufferin—Caledon

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Dufferin—Caledon



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 60% ± 6% 43.0% 49.0% 60.1% LPC 35% ± 6% 31.6% 28.6% 35.2% NDP 2% ± 1% 10.9% 10.4% 2.0% GPC 1% ± 1% 11.6% 4.5% 1.3% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.4% 7.1% 1.1% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.