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Canada

Gatineau



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
LPC likely
Gatineau 40% ± 7% LPC 27% ± 6%▼ BQ 15% ± 5% CPC 10% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 50.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gatineau 99% LPC 1% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Gatineau

LPC 40% ± 7% CPC 15% ± 5% NDP 10% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 3% BQ 27% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Gatineau 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 40% BQ 28% CPC 16% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 40% BQ 29% CPC 16% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 41% BQ 28% CPC 15% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 42% BQ 27% CPC 16% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 42% BQ 26% CPC 16% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 42% BQ 25% CPC 17% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 40% BQ 27% CPC 16% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 39% BQ 28% CPC 16% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 40% BQ 28% CPC 16% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 40% BQ 27% CPC 16% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 40% BQ 28% CPC 15% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 40% BQ 28% CPC 15% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 42% BQ 27% CPC 15% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 42% BQ 27% CPC 15% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 41% BQ 26% CPC 16% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 42% BQ 26% CPC 16% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 43% BQ 25% CPC 15% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 42% BQ 25% CPC 15% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 42% BQ 26% CPC 15% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 42% BQ 26% CPC 15% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 40% BQ 26% CPC 16% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 40% BQ 26% CPC 16% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 40% BQ 26% CPC 15% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 41% BQ 27% CPC 15% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 41% BQ 27% CPC 14% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 41% BQ 27% CPC 15% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 40% BQ 28% CPC 15% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 40% BQ 27% CPC 15% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Gatineau

LPC 99% NDP <1% BQ 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Gatineau



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 52.3% 50.1% 40% ± 7% BQ 21.3% 23.4% 27% ± 6% CPC 10.2% 11.1% 15% ± 5% NDP 10.9% 8.6% 10% ± 4% PPC 1.0% 4.1% 2% ± 3% GPC 4.2% 1.6% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.