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Canada

Gatineau


MP elect: Steven MacKinnon (LPC)

Latest projection: May 18, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Gatineau


Liberal Steven MacKinnon*
Conservative Kethlande Pierre
NDP Daniel Simoncic
Bloc Quebecois Richard Nadeau
PPC Mathieu Saint-Jean
Marxist-Leninist Pierre Soubliere

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Gatineau 60% ± 6% LPC 20% ± 4% CPC 16% ± 4% BQ 3% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 60.2% 338Canada vote projection | May 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Gatineau >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | May 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Gatineau

LPC 60% ± 6% CPC 20% ± 4% BQ 16% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Gatineau 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ May 18, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 35% BQ 30% CPC 19% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 35% BQ 29% CPC 19% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 36% BQ 29% CPC 19% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 37% BQ 28% CPC 18% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 41% BQ 26% CPC 17% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 44% BQ 25% CPC 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 46% BQ 24% CPC 17% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 49% BQ 22% CPC 16% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 50% BQ 21% CPC 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 52% BQ 21% CPC 15% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 15% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 55% BQ 20% CPC 15% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 15% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 15% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 14% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 54% BQ 20% CPC 14% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 57% BQ 19% CPC 14% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 57% BQ 19% CPC 14% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 57% BQ 19% CPC 14% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 58% BQ 18% CPC 14% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 58% BQ 18% CPC 14% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 59% BQ 17% CPC 14% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 59% BQ 17% CPC 14% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 61% BQ 16% CPC 14% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 61% BQ 15% CPC 15% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 62% BQ 15% CPC 14% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 63% BQ 15% CPC 14% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 63% BQ 15% CPC 14% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 63% BQ 15% CPC 14% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 63% CPC 14% BQ 14% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 64% BQ 15% CPC 14% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 63% BQ 15% CPC 13% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 63% BQ 14% CPC 13% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 62% BQ 14% CPC 13% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 62% BQ 14% CPC 14% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 62% BQ 14% CPC 14% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 62% CPC 14% BQ 14% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 63% CPC 14% BQ 14% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 64% CPC 14% BQ 14% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 63% BQ 14% CPC 14% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 63% CPC 14% BQ 14% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 63% BQ 14% CPC 14% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 63% CPC 14% BQ 14% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 63% BQ 14% CPC 14% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 63% BQ 15% CPC 14% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 62% CPC 15% BQ 14% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 61% CPC 15% BQ 15% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 61% CPC 15% BQ 15% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 61% CPC 16% BQ 15% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 61% CPC 16% BQ 15% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 62% CPC 15% BQ 14% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 60% CPC 20% BQ 16% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 60% CPC 20% BQ 16% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 60% CPC 20% BQ 16% 2025-05-18 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Gatineau

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 18, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 85% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 88% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 91% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 94% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Gatineau



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 60% ± 6% 52.3% 50.1% 60.2% CPC 20% ± 4% 10.2% 11.1% 19.5% BQ 16% ± 4% 21.3% 23.4% 16.4% NDP 3% ± 2% 10.9% 8.6% 2.8% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.0% 4.1% 0.9% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 4.2% 1.6% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.