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Canada

Sudbury



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC likely
Sudbury 38% ± 7% CPC 31% ± 7% NDP 23% ± 6% LPC 4% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 35.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sudbury 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Sudbury

LPC 23% ± 6% CPC 38% ± 7% NDP 31% ± 7% GPC 4% ± 3% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Sudbury 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 37% NDP 30% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 37% NDP 30% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 36% NDP 30% LPC 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 36% NDP 30% LPC 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 36% NDP 30% LPC 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 35% NDP 31% LPC 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 35% NDP 31% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 36% NDP 30% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 36% NDP 30% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 36% NDP 29% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 36% NDP 29% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 36% NDP 29% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 36% NDP 31% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 36% NDP 30% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 35% NDP 30% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 35% NDP 30% LPC 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 36% NDP 28% LPC 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 36% NDP 28% LPC 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 38% NDP 27% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 39% NDP 28% LPC 24% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 38% NDP 28% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 38% NDP 28% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 37% NDP 29% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 37% NDP 29% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 37% NDP 28% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 37% NDP 29% LPC 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 38% NDP 29% LPC 25% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 38% NDP 29% LPC 24% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 38% NDP 31% LPC 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 38% NDP 31% LPC 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Sudbury

LPC <1% CPC 91% NDP 9% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 87% NDP 12% LPC 1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 88% NDP 11% LPC 1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 87% NDP 11% LPC 2% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 84% NDP 15% LPC 2% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 85% NDP 13% LPC 2% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 78% NDP 19% LPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 76% NDP 23% LPC 1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 88% NDP 11% LPC 1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 88% NDP 11% LPC 1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 90% NDP 9% LPC 1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 91% NDP 8% LPC 1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 90% NDP 9% LPC 1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 82% NDP 17% LPC 1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 83% NDP 16% LPC 1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 83% NDP 16% LPC 2% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 81% NDP 15% LPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 91% NDP 6% LPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 92% NDP 6% LPC 2% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 97% NDP 2% LPC 1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 97% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 96% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 95% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 94% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 95% NDP 4% LPC 1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 93% NDP 6% LPC 1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Sudbury



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 40.7% 35.0% 23% ± 6% NDP 29.0% 28.9% 31% ± 7% CPC 21.0% 27.8% 38% ± 7% PPC 1.9% 6.1% 3% ± 4% GPC 6.6% 2.0% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.