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Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park


Liberal Gary Anandasangaree*
Conservative Suchita Jalan
NDP Kingsley Kwok
Green Troy Rife

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park 68% ± 8% LPC 25% ± 7%▼ CPC 5% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 61.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park

LPC 68% ± 8% CPC 25% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 57% CPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 59% CPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 62% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 64% CPC 26% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 64% CPC 26% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 65% CPC 26% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 66% CPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 67% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 67% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 67% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 67% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 66% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 66% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 67% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 68% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 68% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 68% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 68% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 68% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 68% CPC 25% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 61.0% 61.3% 68% ± 8% CPC 21.2% 22.1% 25% ± 7% NDP 11.4% 13.4% 5% ± 4% GPC 4.7% 0.0% 1% ± 1% PPC 1.1% 3.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.