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Canada

Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
LPC likely
Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park 48% ± 8% LPC 33% ± 7% CPC 13% ± 5% NDP LPC 2021 61.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park

LPC 48% ± 8% CPC 33% ± 7% NDP 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 50% CPC 31% NDP 15% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 50% CPC 31% NDP 15% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 14% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 15% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 15% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 51% CPC 29% NDP 15% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 50% CPC 30% NDP 16% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 49% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park

LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 61.0% 61.3% 48% ± 8% CPC 21.2% 22.1% 33% ± 7% NDP 11.4% 13.4% 13% ± 5% PPC 1.1% 3.0% 2% ± 2% GPC 4.7% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.