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Canada

Winnipeg South



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Winnipeg South 40% ± 8%▼ CPC 39% ± 8% LPC 16% ± 6% NDP LPC 2021 48.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Winnipeg South 55%▼ CPC 45%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Winnipeg South

LPC 39% ± 8% CPC 40% ± 8% NDP 16% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Winnipeg South 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 46% CPC 36% NDP 14% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 46% CPC 36% NDP 14% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 47% CPC 35% NDP 13% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 48% CPC 35% NDP 13% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 13% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 50% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 49% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 48% CPC 32% NDP 13% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 48% CPC 32% NDP 13% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 48% CPC 32% NDP 13% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 48% CPC 33% NDP 13% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 14% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 46% CPC 34% NDP 14% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 47% CPC 33% NDP 14% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 48% CPC 32% NDP 14% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 49% CPC 31% NDP 14% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 47% CPC 32% NDP 14% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 48% CPC 32% NDP 14% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 46% CPC 34% NDP 14% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 42% CPC 36% NDP 16% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 39% CPC 38% NDP 18% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 38% CPC 38% NDP 18% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 39% CPC 38% NDP 18% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 39% CPC 38% NDP 17% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 39% CPC 38% NDP 17% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 40% CPC 39% NDP 16% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 40% CPC 39% NDP 16% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 40% LPC 40% NDP 16% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 16% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 40% LPC 39% NDP 16% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Winnipeg South

LPC 45% CPC 55% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Winnipeg South



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.9% 48.1% 39% ± 8% CPC 37.7% 32.7% 40% ± 8% NDP 14.2% 14.3% 16% ± 6% PPC 0.9% 3.3% 1% ± 2% GPC 4.3% 1.5% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.