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Canada

Winnipeg South



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Winnipeg South


Liberal Terry Duguid*
Conservative Janice Morley-Lecomte
NDP Joanne Bjornson
Green Manjit Kaur
PPC Johann Rempel Fehr

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Winnipeg South 63% ± 8% LPC 30% ± 8% CPC 5% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 48.1% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Winnipeg South >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Winnipeg South

LPC 63% ± 8% CPC 30% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Winnipeg South 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 52% CPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 56% CPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 61% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Winnipeg South

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Winnipeg South



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.9% 48.1% 63% ± 8% CPC 37.7% 32.7% 30% ± 8% NDP 14.2% 14.3% 5% ± 4% GPC 4.3% 1.5% 1% ± 2% PPC 0.9% 3.3% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.