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Canada

Winnipeg South


MP elect: Terry Duguid (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Winnipeg South


Liberal Terry Duguid*
Conservative Janice Morley-Lecomte
NDP Joanne Bjornson
Green Manjit Kaur
PPC Johann Rempel Fehr

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Winnipeg South 59% ± 7%▲ LPC 35% ± 6%▼ CPC 5% ± 3%▲ NDP LPC 2025 59.0% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Winnipeg South >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Winnipeg South

LPC 59% ± 7% CPC 35% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Winnipeg South 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 15% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 47% CPC 37% NDP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 52% CPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 52% CPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 56% CPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 61% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 63% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 63% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 65% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 57% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 57% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 56% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Winnipeg South

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Winnipeg South



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 59% ± 7% 42.9% 48.1% 59.0% CPC 35% ± 6% 37.7% 32.7% 35.1% NDP 5% ± 3% 14.2% 14.3% 4.6% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.9% 3.3% 0.8% GPC 0% ± 1% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.