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Winnipeg South

Latest update: March 1, 2026
L
MP: Terry Duguid
Manitoba
LPC safe
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Recent electoral history | Winnipeg South


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 62% ± 7% 42.9% 48.1% 59.0% CPC 29% ± 6% 37.7% 32.7% 35.1% NDP 6% ± 4% 14.2% 14.3% 4.6% PPC 1% ± 2% 0.9% 3.3% 0.8%

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338Canada Winnipeg South projection

Latest update: March 1, 2026

Winnipeg South 55% 69% 62% ± 7% LPC 23% 36% 29% ± 6% ▼ CPC 2% 10% 6% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 59.0% 338Canada vote projection | March 1, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Winnipeg South >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 1, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Winnipeg South

LPC 62% ± 7% CPC 29% ± 6% NDP 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Winnipeg South 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC March 1, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 65% CPC 28% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 57% CPC 38% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 57% CPC 38% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 56% CPC 38% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 61% CPC 33% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 60% CPC 33% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 59% CPC 33% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 59% CPC 33% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 59% CPC 33% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 60% CPC 33% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 60% CPC 33% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 60% CPC 33% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 58% CPC 34% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 57% CPC 33% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 57% CPC 33% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 58% CPC 32% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 60% CPC 31% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 62% CPC 29% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2026-03-01

Odds of winning | Winnipeg South

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 1, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-03-01


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Demographic data | Winnipeg South

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 72.5% English 6.6% Mandarin 3.9% Punjabi 1.9% Cantonese 1.5% French 1.4% Urdu 1.3% ArabicWinnipeg SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 4.6% No diploma 20.5% High school 4.5% Trade 17.3% College / Cégep 4.1% Some university 31.9% Bachelor's 17.1% PostgraduateWinnipeg SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 51.7% Not visible minority 48.3% Visible minority 15.6% South Asian 12.2% Chinese 8.4% Black 3.5% Filipino 2.2% Arab 1.2% KoreanWinnipeg SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 35.8% No Religion 17.6% Catholic 9.6% Christian (n.o.s.) 7.9% Muslim 4.8% Hindu 4.7% Sikh 3.8% United Church 2.3% AnglicanWinnipeg SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 71.3% Owner 28.7% RenterWinnipeg SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 61.0% Employed 33.0% Not in labour force 6.0% UnemployedWinnipeg SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 93.3% Non-Indigenous 6.7% Indigenous identity 4.2% Metis 2.3% First Nations 0.1% Multiple 0.1% InukWinnipeg SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 85.3% Car / truck / van 9.0% Public transit 3.0% Walking 2.1% Other 0.6% BicycleWinnipeg SouthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.