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Canada

Winnipeg South


MP elect: Terry Duguid (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Winnipeg South


Liberal Terry Duguid*
Conservative Janice Morley-Lecomte
NDP Joanne Bjornson
Green Manjit Kaur
PPC Johann Rempel Fehr

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Winnipeg South 57% ± 0%▼ LPC 38% ± 0%▲ CPC 4% ± 0%▼ NDP LPC 2025 56.5% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Winnipeg South >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Winnipeg South

LPC 57% ± 0% CPC 38% ± 0% NDP 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Winnipeg South 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 52% CPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 56% CPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 61% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 63% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 63% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 65% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 57% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Winnipeg South

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Winnipeg South



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 57% ± 0% 42.9% 48.1% 56.5% CPC 38% ± 0% 37.7% 32.7% 37.7% NDP 4% ± 0% 14.2% 14.3% 4.3% PPC 1% ± 0% 0.9% 3.3% 0.9% GPC 1% ± 0% 4.3% 1.5% 0.6%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.