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Canada

Malpeque


MP elect: Heath MacDonald (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Malpeque


Liberal Heath MacDonald*
Conservative Jamie Fox
NDP Cassie MacKay
Green Anna Keenan
PPC Hilda Baughan

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Malpeque 57% ± 0%▲ LPC 37% ± 0% CPC 4% ± 0%▼ GPC LPC 2025 57.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Malpeque >99%▲ LPC <1%▼ CPC <1% GPC Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Malpeque

LPC 57% ± 0% CPC 37% ± 0% GPC 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Malpeque 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC GPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 41% CPC 36% GPC 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 43% CPC 34% GPC 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 14% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 14% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 46% CPC 32% GPC 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 46% CPC 32% GPC 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 46% CPC 32% GPC 13% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 49% CPC 30% GPC 13% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 31% GPC 13% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 31% GPC 12% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 50% CPC 31% GPC 12% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 50% CPC 32% GPC 12% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 50% CPC 32% GPC 11% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 49% CPC 34% GPC 11% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% CPC 34% GPC 11% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 10% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 10% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 10% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 10% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 51% CPC 34% GPC 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 51% CPC 34% GPC 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 51% CPC 34% GPC 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 49% CPC 36% GPC 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 48% CPC 37% GPC 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 48% CPC 37% GPC 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 48% CPC 37% GPC 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 49% CPC 37% GPC 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 49% CPC 37% GPC 9% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 57% CPC 37% GPC 4% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Malpeque

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Malpeque



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 57% ± 0% 41.4% 42.0% 57.3% CPC 37% ± 0% 25.7% 33.1% 36.6% GPC 4% ± 0% 26.4% 14.0% 3.9% NDP 2% ± 0% 6.6% 8.0% 1.6% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.