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Malpeque



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Malpeque


Liberal Heath MacDonald*
Conservative Jamie Fox
NDP Cassie MacKay
Green Anna Keenan
PPC Hilda Baughan

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Malpeque 50% ± 10% LPC 35% ± 9% CPC 9% ± 6% GPC 5% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 42.0% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Malpeque 97% LPC 3% CPC <1% GPC Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Malpeque

LPC 50% ± 10% CPC 35% ± 9% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC 9% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Malpeque 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 41% CPC 36% GPC 14% NDP 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 43% CPC 34% GPC 14% NDP 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 46% CPC 32% GPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 46% CPC 32% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 46% CPC 32% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 49% CPC 30% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 31% GPC 13% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 31% GPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 50% CPC 31% GPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 50% CPC 32% GPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 50% CPC 32% GPC 11% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 49% CPC 34% GPC 11% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% CPC 34% GPC 11% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 10% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 10% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 10% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 10% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 51% CPC 34% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Malpeque

LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Malpeque



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 41.4% 42.0% 50% ± 10% CPC 25.7% 33.1% 35% ± 9% GPC 26.4% 14.0% 9% ± 6% NDP 6.6% 8.0% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 2.8% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.