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Malpeque


Latest projection: September 29, 2024
CPC safe
Malpeque 47% ± 10% CPC 29% ± 8%▼ LPC 14% ± 7% GPC 7% ± 5% NDP LPC 2021 42.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Malpeque >99%▲ CPC <1%▼ LPC <1% GPC Odds of winning | September 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Malpeque

LPC 29% ± 8% CPC 47% ± 10% NDP 7% ± 5% GPC 14% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Malpeque 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC September 29, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 48% LPC 30% GPC 13% NDP 7% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 49% LPC 30% GPC 13% NDP 7% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 49% LPC 30% GPC 13% NDP 7% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 49% LPC 30% GPC 13% NDP 7% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 48% LPC 31% GPC 13% NDP 7% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 47% LPC 32% GPC 13% NDP 8% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 46% LPC 32% GPC 12% NDP 9% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 45% LPC 31% GPC 12% NDP 9% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 43% LPC 33% GPC 12% NDP 9% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 42% LPC 34% GPC 12% NDP 9% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 41% LPC 35% GPC 12% NDP 9% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 41% LPC 35% GPC 12% NDP 9% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 43% LPC 34% GPC 13% NDP 8% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 43% LPC 33% GPC 13% NDP 8% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 44% LPC 33% GPC 13% NDP 8% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 45% LPC 32% GPC 13% NDP 8% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 46% LPC 31% GPC 13% NDP 7% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 46% LPC 31% GPC 14% NDP 7% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 47% LPC 30% GPC 14% NDP 7% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 47% LPC 30% GPC 14% NDP 7% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 47% LPC 29% GPC 14% NDP 7% 2024-09-29

Odds of winning | Malpeque

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP September 29, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29

Recent electoral history | Malpeque



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 41.4% 42.0% 29% ± 8% CPC 25.7% 33.1% 47% ± 10% GPC 26.4% 14.0% 14% ± 7% NDP 6.6% 8.0% 7% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 2.8% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.