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Canada

Malpeque


MP: Heath MacDonald (LPC)

Latest projection: June 29, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Malpeque


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 61% ± 10% 41.4% 42.0% 57.6% CPC 34% ± 9% 25.7% 33.1% 36.6% GPC 4% ± 4% 26.4% 14.0% 3.9% NDP 1% ± 2% 6.6% 8.0% 1.4% PPC 0% ± 1% 0.0% 2.8% 0.5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Malpeque


Malpeque 61% ± 10% LPC 34% ± 9% CPC 4% ± 4% GPC LPC 2025 57.6% 338Canada vote projection | June 29, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Malpeque >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% GPC Odds of winning | June 29, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Malpeque

LPC 61% ± 10% CPC 34% ± 9% GPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Malpeque 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC GPC June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 49% LPC 27% GPC 13% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 48% LPC 27% GPC 14% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 48% LPC 27% GPC 14% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 47% LPC 29% GPC 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 45% LPC 31% GPC 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 42% LPC 34% GPC 15% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 41% LPC 37% GPC 14% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 40% CPC 37% GPC 14% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 41% CPC 36% GPC 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 43% CPC 34% GPC 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 14% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 14% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 46% CPC 32% GPC 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 46% CPC 32% GPC 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 46% CPC 32% GPC 13% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 49% CPC 30% GPC 13% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 31% GPC 13% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 31% GPC 12% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 50% CPC 31% GPC 12% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 50% CPC 32% GPC 12% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 50% CPC 32% GPC 11% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 49% CPC 34% GPC 11% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% CPC 34% GPC 11% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 10% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 10% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 10% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 10% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 51% CPC 34% GPC 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 51% CPC 34% GPC 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 51% CPC 34% GPC 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 49% CPC 36% GPC 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 48% CPC 37% GPC 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 48% CPC 37% GPC 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 48% CPC 37% GPC 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 49% CPC 37% GPC 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 49% CPC 37% GPC 9% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 57% CPC 37% GPC 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 57% CPC 37% GPC 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 57% CPC 37% GPC 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 58% CPC 37% GPC 4% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 58% CPC 37% GPC 4% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 58% CPC 36% GPC 4% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 59% CPC 35% GPC 4% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 61% CPC 34% GPC 4% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 61% CPC 34% GPC 4% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Malpeque

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader