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Canada

Bowmanville—Oshawa North


MP elect: Jamil Jivani (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Bowmanville—Oshawa North


Liberal Bridget Girard
Conservative Jamil Jivani*
NDP Elenor Marano
Green Julie Dietrich
Rhinoceros Adam Smith
Christian Heritage Thomas Zekveld
Centrist Ghuzna Imam
United Clint Cole
Independent Pranay Gunti

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Bowmanville—Oshawa North 50% ± 0%▲ CPC 45% ± 0%▲ LPC 3% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 49.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bowmanville—Oshawa North 87%▲ CPC 13%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Bowmanville—Oshawa North

LPC 45% ± 0% CPC 50% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Bowmanville—Oshawa North 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 51% LPC 29% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% LPC 31% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 33% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 34% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 48% LPC 34% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 34% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% LPC 34% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 48% LPC 34% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 48% LPC 37% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 48% LPC 37% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 48% LPC 37% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 48% LPC 38% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 48% LPC 38% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 48% LPC 39% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 49% LPC 38% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 49% LPC 39% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 49% LPC 40% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 50% LPC 39% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 50% LPC 39% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 50% LPC 39% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 50% LPC 39% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 51% LPC 39% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 50% LPC 39% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 50% LPC 39% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 47% LPC 41% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 47% LPC 41% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 46% LPC 41% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 46% LPC 41% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 47% LPC 41% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 46% LPC 41% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 46% LPC 41% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 47% LPC 41% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 48% LPC 40% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 47% LPC 40% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 48% LPC 41% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 48% LPC 41% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 47% LPC 42% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 47% LPC 42% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 47% LPC 42% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 47% LPC 42% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 47% LPC 42% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 47% LPC 42% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 48% LPC 42% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 50% LPC 45% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Bowmanville—Oshawa North

LPC 13% CPC 87% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Bowmanville—Oshawa North



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 50% ± 0% 40.4% 44.7% 49.8% LPC 45% ± 0% 33.3% 30.8% 45.4% NDP 3% ± 0% 19.3% 18.4% 2.8% IND 1% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GPC 1% ± 0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.8% PPC 0% ± 0% 2.0% 5.4% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.