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Canada

Louis-Hébert


MP: Joel Lightbound (LPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Louis-Hébert


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 55% ± 8% 40.3% 38.2% 55.4% BQ 21% ± 6% 27.9% 27.0% 21.3% CPC 20% ± 6% 18.0% 24.3% 20.1% NDP 3% ± 2% 7.8% 7.2% 2.5% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.5% GPC 0% ± 0% 3.9% 2.6% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Louis-Hébert 55% ± 8% LPC 21% ± 6% BQ 20% ± 6% CPC 3% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 55.4% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Louis-Hébert >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Louis-Hébert

LPC 55% ± 8% CPC 20% ± 6% BQ 21% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Louis-Hébert 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 34% BQ 29% LPC 23% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 34% BQ 29% LPC 23% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 34% BQ 28% LPC 24% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 33% BQ 28% LPC 25% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 32% LPC 28% BQ 26% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 32% LPC 30% BQ 26% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 32% CPC 32% BQ 24% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 35% CPC 31% BQ 23% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 35% CPC 31% BQ 22% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 37% CPC 30% BQ 22% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 39% CPC 29% BQ 21% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 39% CPC 29% BQ 21% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 39% CPC 29% BQ 21% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 39% CPC 29% BQ 21% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 39% CPC 29% BQ 21% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 39% CPC 29% BQ 21% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 42% CPC 28% BQ 20% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 42% CPC 27% BQ 20% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 43% CPC 28% BQ 20% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 43% CPC 28% BQ 19% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 43% CPC 28% BQ 19% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 44% CPC 29% BQ 19% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 44% CPC 28% BQ 18% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46% CPC 29% BQ 17% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 46% CPC 29% BQ 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 47% CPC 29% BQ 16% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 47% CPC 29% BQ 16% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 48% CPC 29% BQ 16% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 47% CPC 30% BQ 15% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 47% CPC 30% BQ 15% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 48% CPC 29% BQ 16% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% CPC 29% BQ 16% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 50% CPC 30% BQ 16% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 49% CPC 30% BQ 16% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 49% CPC 30% BQ 16% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 48% CPC 31% BQ 16% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 48% CPC 31% BQ 15% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 49% CPC 31% BQ 15% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 51% CPC 29% BQ 15% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 51% CPC 29% BQ 15% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 50% CPC 30% BQ 15% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 50% CPC 30% BQ 15% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 50% CPC 30% BQ 15% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 49% CPC 30% BQ 16% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 46% CPC 30% BQ 18% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 46% CPC 31% BQ 18% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 45% CPC 32% BQ 18% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 44% CPC 32% BQ 18% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 44% CPC 33% BQ 18% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 44% CPC 33% BQ 18% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 45% CPC 32% BQ 19% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 55% BQ 21% CPC 20% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 55% BQ 21% CPC 20% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 55% BQ 21% CPC 20% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 55% BQ 21% CPC 20% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 55% BQ 21% CPC 20% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Louis-Hébert

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 85% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 87% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 88% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 82% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 72% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 58% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 53% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader