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Canada


Mégantic–L’Érable (federal)


MP: Luc Berthold (CPC)


Latest projection: November 26, 2023

CPC safe hold
Mégantic–L’Érable 71% ± 7% 14% ± 5%▼ 7% ± 4% 3% ± 2% CPC 2021 56.26% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 26, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Mégantic–L’Érable >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | November 26, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mégantic–L’Érable

LPC 7% ± 4% CPC 71% ± 7% BQ 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Mégantic–L’Érable 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 LPC CPC BQ

Odds of winning | Mégantic–L’Érable

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Mégantic–L’Érable



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 35.4% 49.2% 56.26% 71% ± 7% BQ 12.3% 25.8% 20.07% 14% ± 5% LPC 28.1% 15.6% 13.63% 7% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.7% 3.61% 2% ± 2% NDP 22.0% 4.1% 2.82% 3% ± 2% GPC 2.1% 2.6% 1.28% 2% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.5% 0.87% 0% ± 0%