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Canada

Mirabel



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
BQ likely

Candidates | Mirabel


Liberal Robert Fleming
Conservative Serge Dubord
NDP Albert Batten
Green Mario Guay
Bloc Quebecois Jean-Denis Garon*
PPC Christian Montpetit

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Mirabel 40% ± 7% BQ 32% ± 7% LPC 18% ± 5% CPC 5% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC BQ 2021 45.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mirabel 92%▲ BQ 8%▼ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mirabel

LPC 32% ± 7% CPC 18% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 4% BQ 40% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Mirabel 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 BQ 44% LPC 22% CPC 19% NDP 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 43% LPC 23% CPC 18% NDP 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 42% LPC 25% CPC 18% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 42% LPC 26% CPC 18% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 42% LPC 26% CPC 18% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 42% LPC 26% CPC 18% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 42% LPC 25% CPC 18% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 42% LPC 25% CPC 18% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 41% LPC 28% CPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 41% LPC 28% CPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 40% LPC 29% CPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 40% LPC 29% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 39% LPC 30% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 39% LPC 30% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 39% LPC 30% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 39% LPC 31% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 38% LPC 32% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 38% LPC 33% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 39% LPC 32% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 38% LPC 32% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 38% LPC 33% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 38% LPC 33% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 39% LPC 33% CPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 40% LPC 33% CPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 40% LPC 33% CPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 39% LPC 33% CPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 40% LPC 33% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 39% LPC 33% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 39% LPC 33% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 18% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Mirabel

LPC 8% NDP <1% BQ 92% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP BQ April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Mirabel



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 49.6% 45.8% 40% ± 7% LPC 26.1% 24.4% 32% ± 7% CPC 9.1% 13.3% 18% ± 5% NDP 8.4% 8.6% 5% ± 4% GPC 5.3% 2.2% 3% ± 3% PPC 1.0% 3.8% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.