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Canada

Mirabel


MP elect: Jean-Denis Garon (BQ)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
BQ likely

Candidates | Mirabel


Liberal Robert Fleming
Conservative Serge Dubord
NDP Albert Batten
Green Mario Guay
Bloc Quebecois Jean-Denis Garon*
PPC Christian Montpetit

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Mirabel 40% ± 6% BQ 33% ± 6% LPC 22% ± 5% CPC BQ 2025 39.9% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mirabel 92%▼ BQ 8%▲ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mirabel

LPC 33% ± 6% CPC 22% ± 5% BQ 40% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Mirabel 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 52% CPC 19% LPC 13% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 51% CPC 19% LPC 13% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 51% CPC 19% LPC 13% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 51% CPC 19% LPC 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 49% CPC 18% LPC 17% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 48% CPC 18% LPC 18% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 47% LPC 19% CPC 19% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 45% LPC 22% CPC 18% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 44% LPC 22% CPC 19% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 43% LPC 23% CPC 18% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 42% LPC 25% CPC 18% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 42% LPC 26% CPC 18% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 42% LPC 26% CPC 18% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 42% LPC 26% CPC 18% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 42% LPC 25% CPC 18% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 42% LPC 25% CPC 18% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 41% LPC 28% CPC 17% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 41% LPC 28% CPC 17% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 40% LPC 29% CPC 17% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 40% LPC 29% CPC 18% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 39% LPC 30% CPC 18% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 39% LPC 30% CPC 18% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 39% LPC 30% CPC 18% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 39% LPC 31% CPC 18% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 38% LPC 32% CPC 19% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 38% LPC 33% CPC 18% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 39% LPC 32% CPC 18% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 38% LPC 32% CPC 18% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 38% LPC 33% CPC 18% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 38% LPC 33% CPC 18% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 39% LPC 33% CPC 17% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 40% LPC 33% CPC 17% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 40% LPC 33% CPC 17% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 39% LPC 33% CPC 17% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 40% LPC 33% CPC 18% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 39% LPC 33% CPC 18% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 18% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 39% LPC 33% CPC 18% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 18% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 18% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 18% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 41% LPC 32% CPC 18% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 40% LPC 31% CPC 18% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 41% LPC 32% CPC 18% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 41% LPC 31% CPC 18% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 41% LPC 31% CPC 18% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 41% LPC 30% CPC 19% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 41% LPC 30% CPC 19% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 41% LPC 30% CPC 19% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 41% LPC 30% CPC 19% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 40% LPC 31% CPC 19% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 40% LPC 33% CPC 22% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 40% LPC 33% CPC 22% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 40% LPC 33% CPC 22% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 40% LPC 33% CPC 22% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Mirabel

LPC 8% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 92% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Mirabel



2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 40% ± 6% 49.6% 45.8% 39.9% LPC 33% ± 6% 26.1% 24.4% 33.4% CPC 22% ± 5% 9.1% 13.3% 22.3% NDP 2% ± 2% 8.4% 8.6% 2.4% GPC 1% ± 1% 5.3% 2.2% 1.4% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.0% 3.8% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.