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Canada

Brome—Missisquoi



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
BQ likely
Brome—Missisquoi 36% ± 7% BQ 26% ± 6% LPC 23% ± 5%▲ CPC 8% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 35.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Brome—Missisquoi 98% BQ 2% LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Brome—Missisquoi

LPC 26% ± 6% CPC 23% ± 5% NDP 8% ± 4% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 36% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Brome—Missisquoi 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 35% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 37% LPC 25% CPC 23% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 36% LPC 26% CPC 23% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 34% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 33% LPC 27% CPC 25% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 33% LPC 27% CPC 25% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 35% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 35% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 36% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 35% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 36% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 36% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 35% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 35% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 34% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 34% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 33% LPC 28% CPC 23% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 34% LPC 28% CPC 23% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 34% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 34% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 35% LPC 26% CPC 23% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 35% LPC 25% CPC 23% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 35% LPC 26% CPC 22% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 35% LPC 27% CPC 22% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 36% LPC 27% CPC 21% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 36% LPC 26% CPC 22% NDP 9% GPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 36% LPC 26% CPC 22% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 36% LPC 26% CPC 23% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Brome—Missisquoi

LPC 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 98% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 97% LPC 2% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 98% LPC 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 93% LPC 6% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 89% LPC 8% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 85% LPC 12% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 96% LPC 3% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 98% LPC 1% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 98% LPC 1% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 97% LPC 2% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 98% LPC 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 98% LPC 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 95% LPC 5% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 94% LPC 6% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 94% LPC 5% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 90% LPC 9% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 81% LPC 18% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 88% LPC 11% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 93% LPC 6% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 94% LPC 5% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 96% LPC 3% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 97% LPC 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 97% LPC 3% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 96% LPC 4% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 96% LPC 4% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 97% LPC 3% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 98% LPC 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 98% LPC 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Brome—Missisquoi



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 38.2% 35.0% 26% ± 6% BQ 34.4% 34.6% 36% ± 7% CPC 12.5% 16.2% 23% ± 5% NDP 8.0% 6.2% 8% ± 4% PPC 0.7% 3.2% 1% ± 2% GPC 5.4% 2.4% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.