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Canada

Brome—Missisquoi


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
BQ likely
Brome—Missisquoi 36% ± 7%▲ BQ 26% ± 6% LPC 24% ± 6% CPC 8% ± 3% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 35.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Brome—Missisquoi 98%▲ BQ 2% LPC <1%▼ CPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Brome—Missisquoi

LPC 26% ± 6% CPC 24% ± 6% NDP 8% ± 3% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 36% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Brome—Missisquoi 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 35% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 37% LPC 25% CPC 23% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 36% LPC 26% CPC 23% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 34% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 33% LPC 27% CPC 25% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 33% LPC 27% CPC 25% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 35% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 35% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 36% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 35% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 36% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Brome—Missisquoi

LPC 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 98% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 97% LPC 2% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 98% LPC 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 93% LPC 6% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 89% LPC 8% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 85% LPC 12% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 96% LPC 3% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 98% LPC 1% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 98% LPC 1% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 97% LPC 2% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 98% LPC 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Brome—Missisquoi



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 38.2% 35.0% 26% ± 6% BQ 34.4% 34.6% 36% ± 7% CPC 12.5% 16.2% 24% ± 6% NDP 8.0% 6.2% 8% ± 3% PPC 0.7% 3.2% 1% ± 2% GPC 5.4% 2.4% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.