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Canada

Brome—Missisquoi


MP: Louis Villeneuve (LPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Brome—Missisquoi


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 52% ± 7% 38.2% 35.0% 48.3% BQ 26% ± 6% 34.4% 34.6% 28.0% CPC 17% ± 5% 12.5% 16.2% 19.1% NDP 2% ± 2% 8.0% 6.2% 2.2% GPC 2% ± 2% 5.4% 2.4% 1.6% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.7% 3.2% 0.8%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Brome—Missisquoi


Brome—Missisquoi 52% ± 7%▲ LPC 26% ± 6%▼ BQ 17% ± 5%▼ CPC LPC 2025 48.3% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Brome—Missisquoi >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Brome—Missisquoi

LPC 52% ± 7% CPC 17% ± 5% BQ 26% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Brome—Missisquoi 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 38% CPC 26% LPC 21% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 37% CPC 27% LPC 22% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 37% CPC 26% LPC 22% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 37% CPC 25% LPC 23% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 34% LPC 26% CPC 25% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 33% LPC 28% CPC 25% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 32% LPC 30% CPC 25% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 33% BQ 30% CPC 24% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 33% BQ 29% CPC 24% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 35% BQ 29% CPC 24% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 37% BQ 28% CPC 23% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 37% BQ 28% CPC 23% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 37% BQ 28% CPC 23% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 37% BQ 28% CPC 23% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 37% BQ 28% CPC 23% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 37% BQ 28% CPC 22% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 40% BQ 27% CPC 22% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 40% BQ 27% CPC 21% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 41% BQ 26% CPC 22% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 41% BQ 26% CPC 22% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 42% BQ 25% CPC 22% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 42% BQ 25% CPC 23% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 42% BQ 25% CPC 22% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 44% CPC 23% BQ 23% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 45% CPC 24% BQ 22% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 46% CPC 23% BQ 22% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 46% CPC 23% BQ 22% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 47% CPC 23% BQ 22% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 47% CPC 23% BQ 21% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 47% CPC 23% BQ 21% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 47% CPC 22% BQ 21% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 47% CPC 22% BQ 22% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% CPC 22% BQ 21% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 23% BQ 21% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 47% CPC 23% BQ 21% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 47% CPC 23% BQ 21% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 46% CPC 23% BQ 21% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 47% CPC 23% BQ 20% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 47% CPC 23% BQ 20% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 47% CPC 23% BQ 21% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 47% CPC 23% BQ 21% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 47% CPC 23% BQ 21% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 47% CPC 23% BQ 21% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 46% CPC 23% BQ 21% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 45% CPC 24% BQ 22% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 45% CPC 24% BQ 22% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 44% CPC 25% BQ 22% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 43% CPC 25% BQ 22% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 43% CPC 25% BQ 22% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 43% CPC 25% BQ 22% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 43% BQ 24% CPC 23% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 19% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 19% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 19% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 19% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 19% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 48% BQ 28% CPC 19% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 48% BQ 29% CPC 19% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 49% BQ 28% CPC 18% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 50% BQ 27% CPC 18% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 52% BQ 26% CPC 17% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Brome—Missisquoi

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 2% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 2% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 6% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 16% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 34% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 68% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 76% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 88% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 97% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 97% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 97% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 97% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 97% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 97% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader