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Canada

Honoré-Mercier



Latest projection: December 29, 2024
LPC likely
Honoré-Mercier 38% ± 7% LPC 23% ± 6% BQ 21% ± 6% CPC 12% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 60.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Honoré-Mercier >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Honoré-Mercier

LPC 38% ± 7% CPC 21% ± 6% NDP 12% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 3% BQ 23% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Honoré-Mercier 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 49% BQ 21% CPC 16% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 49% BQ 22% CPC 16% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 50% BQ 22% CPC 15% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 51% BQ 20% CPC 16% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 50% BQ 19% CPC 17% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 51% BQ 19% CPC 17% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 46% BQ 20% CPC 20% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 45% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 45% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 45% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 46% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 46% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 47% BQ 20% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 47% BQ 19% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 46% CPC 19% BQ 19% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 47% CPC 19% BQ 19% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 48% CPC 19% BQ 18% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 48% BQ 18% CPC 18% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 47% BQ 19% CPC 19% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 43% BQ 22% CPC 19% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 41% BQ 23% CPC 19% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 41% BQ 23% CPC 19% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 41% BQ 23% CPC 19% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 42% BQ 23% CPC 18% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 42% BQ 23% CPC 18% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 42% BQ 23% CPC 18% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 42% BQ 24% CPC 19% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 41% BQ 23% CPC 19% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 40% BQ 24% CPC 20% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 39% BQ 23% CPC 20% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 38% BQ 24% CPC 20% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 39% BQ 24% CPC 19% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 LPC 38% BQ 23% CPC 21% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 LPC 38% BQ 23% CPC 21% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2024-12-29

Odds of winning | Honoré-Mercier

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-29

Recent electoral history | Honoré-Mercier



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 58.6% 60.0% 38% ± 7% BQ 19.7% 16.3% 23% ± 6% CPC 9.6% 10.5% 21% ± 6% NDP 8.2% 7.3% 12% ± 4% GPC 2.7% 1.5% 3% ± 3% PPC 0.9% 4.2% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.