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Canada


Gatineau (federal)


MP: Steven Mackinnon (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

LPC safe hold
Gatineau 41% ± 7% 25% ± 6% 16% ± 5% 11% ± 4% 4% ± 3% 3% ± 3% LPC 2021 49.87% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Gatineau >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Gatineau

LPC 41% ± 7% CPC 16% ± 5% NDP 11% ± 4% BQ 25% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Gatineau 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Gatineau

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Gatineau



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 53.8% 52.1% 49.87% 41% ± 7% BQ 9.4% 21.4% 23.32% 25% ± 6% CPC 8.2% 10.3% 10.88% 16% ± 5% NDP 26.6% 11.0% 8.58% 11% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.0% 4.34% 3% ± 3% GPC 1.6% 4.1% 1.49% 4% ± 3%