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Saskatchewan

Welcome to 338Canada Saskatchewan!


338Canada is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data.

This website is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L’actualité, as well as a regular contributor to Politico Canada and The Walrus.

He also appears as a panelist on CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter to stay updated — and enjoy the website!



338Canada Projection | Saskatchewan


Latest update: November 12, 2024

Popular vote projection 53% ± 0% SKP 40% ± 0% NDP 4% ± 0% SUP 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 31 seats for a majority 34 [34-34] SKP 27 [27-27] NDP 0 SUP 0 GRN 338Canada Saskatchewan | November 12, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% SKP <1% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99% SKP maj. <1% SKP min. <1% NDP min. <1% NDP maj. Odds of outcome | November 12, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Saskatchewan | Popular vote projection

SKP NDP GRN SPP 0% ± 0% SKP 53% ± 0% NDP 40% ± 0% GRN 2% ± 0% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins November 12, 2024 2024-09-24 SKP 49% NDP 40% GRN 2% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP 48% NDP 42% GRN 2% 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP 51% NDP 40% GRN 2% 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP 51% NDP 40% GRN 2% 2024-10-25 2024-10-26 SKP 53% NDP 41% GRN 2% 2024-10-26 2024-10-28 SKP 53% NDP 41% GRN 2% 2024-10-28 2024-10-29 SKP 50% NDP 44% GRN 2% 2024-10-29 2024-11-12 SKP 47% NDP 47% GRN 2% 2024-11-12 2025-09-13 NDP 48% SKP 47% GRN 2% 2025-09-13 2024-09-24 SKP 53% NDP 39% GRN 2% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP 52% NDP 40% GRN 2% 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP 53% NDP 40% GRN 2% 2024-10-16

Saskatchewan | Seat projection

SPP 0 [0-0] SKP 34 [35-35] NDP 27 [26-26] Seat projection 40 30 20 10 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins SKP NDP Majority: 31 seats November 12, 2024 2024-09-24 SKP 33 NDP 28 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP 38 NDP 23 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP 36 NDP 25 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP 39 NDP 22 2024-10-25 2024-10-26 SKP 39 NDP 22 2024-10-26 2024-10-28 SKP 40 NDP 21 2024-10-28 2024-10-29 SKP 39 NDP 22 2024-10-29 2024-11-12 SKP 36 NDP 25 2024-11-12 2025-09-13 SKP 32 NDP 29 2025-09-13 2024-09-24 SKP 31 NDP 30 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP 35 NDP 26 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP 34 NDP 27 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP 34 NDP 27 2024-10-25

Saskatchewan | Odds of winning the most seats

SKP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins SKP NDP GRN Tie November 12, 2024 2024-09-24 SKP 98% NDP 2% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-25 2024-10-26 SKP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-26 2024-10-28 SKP 97% NDP 3% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-28 2024-10-29 SKP 71% NDP 29% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-29 2024-11-12 SKP 50% NDP 50% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-11-12 2025-09-13 SKP >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-13 2024-09-24 SKP >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-14

Saskatchewan | Odds of election outcome

SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins SKP majority NDP minority November 12, 2024 2024-09-24 SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP majority 97% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-25 2024-10-26 SKP majority 71% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-26 2024-10-28 SKP majority 50% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-28 2024-10-29 SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-29 2024-11-12 SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-11-12 2025-09-13 SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2025-09-13