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Saskatchewan

🍁338Canada Saskatchewan projections

338Canada provides statistical projections of federal and provincial elections in Canada, combining opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data to estimate both popular vote and seat outcomes.

This page shows the current state of Saskatchewan's political landscape, including recent polling, projected vote shares, and likely seat distributions if an election were held today.

Projections are updated regularly as new polling becomes available.

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Latest Saskatchewan Polls

GRN
2025-11-28
55
39
2
2025-09-01
54
41
1
2024-10-28
52.3
40.4
1.8
2024-10-26
46
49
2

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338Canada Projection | Saskatchewan

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Popular vote projection 48% 60% 54% ± 6% SKP 33% 45% 39% ± 6% NDP 2% 5% 4% ± 2% SUP 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Seat projection | 31 seats for a majority 35 [31-44] SKP 26 [17-30] NDP 338Canada seat projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current range from worst- to best-case outcomes. Values near the centre of the distribution are more likely than the extremes, as the results follow Gaussian-like (bell-curve) distributions. Does it work? See 338Canada’s full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 99%▲ SKP 1%▼ NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. The odds of winning and of various outcomes are those that would apply if a general election were held today. They are calculated using the 338Canada Monte Carlo–type model, which runs thousands of simulated elections based on projected vote shares by riding, past results, and demographic data.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 99% SKP maj. 1% NDP maj. <1% SKP min. <1% NDP min. Odds of outcome | December 20, 2025

338Canada Saskatchewan | Popular Vote Projection

SKP NDP GRN SPP 0% ± 0% SKP 54% ± 6% NDP 39% ± 6% GRN 2% ± 1% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 2026-07-01 Election 2024 December 20, 2025 2024-03-16 SKP 51% NDP 38% GRN 2% 2024-03-16 2024-08-22 SKP 51% NDP 37% GRN 2% 2024-08-22 2024-09-23 SKP 51% NDP 37% GRN 2% 2024-09-23 2024-09-24 SKP 46% NDP 45% GRN 2% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP 49% NDP 40% GRN 2% 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP 48% NDP 42% GRN 2% 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP 51% NDP 40% GRN 2% 2024-10-25 2024-10-26 SKP 51% NDP 40% GRN 2% 2024-10-26 2024-10-28 SKP 53% NDP 41% GRN 2% 2024-10-28 2024-10-29 SKP 53% NDP 41% GRN 2% 2024-10-29 2024-11-12 SKP 50% NDP 44% GRN 2% 2024-11-12 2025-09-13 SKP 47% NDP 47% GRN 2% 2025-09-13 2025-10-25 NDP 48% SKP 47% GRN 2% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 SKP 53% NDP 39% GRN 2% 2025-12-20 2024-03-16 SKP 52% NDP 40% GRN 2% 2024-03-16 2024-08-22 SKP 53% NDP 40% GRN 2% 2024-08-22 2024-09-23 SKP 53% NDP 40% GRN 2% 2024-09-23 2024-09-24 SKP 54% NDP 39% GRN 2% 2024-09-24

338Canada Saskatchewan | Seat Projection

SPP [0-0] SKP [31-44] NDP [17-30] Seat projection 40 30 20 10 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 2026-07-01 Election 2024 SKP NDP Majority: 31 seats December 20, 2025 2024-03-16 SKP 40 NDP 21 2024-03-16 2024-08-22 SKP 39 NDP 22 2024-08-22 2024-09-23 SKP 37 NDP 24 2024-09-23 2024-09-24 SKP 37 NDP 24 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP 37 NDP 24 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP 37 NDP 24 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP 33 NDP 28 2024-10-25 2024-10-26 SKP 38 NDP 23 2024-10-26 2024-10-28 SKP 36 NDP 25 2024-10-28 2024-10-29 SKP 39 NDP 22 2024-10-29 2024-11-12 SKP 39 NDP 22 2024-11-12 2025-09-13 SKP 40 NDP 21 2025-09-13 2025-10-25 SKP 39 NDP 22 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 SKP 36 NDP 25 2025-12-20 2024-03-16 SKP 32 NDP 29 2024-03-16 2024-08-22 SKP 31 NDP 30 2024-08-22 2024-09-23 SKP 35 NDP 26 2024-09-23 2024-09-24 SKP 34 NDP 27 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP 34 NDP 27 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP 34 NDP 27 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP 35 NDP 26 2024-10-25

338Canada Saskatchewan | Odds of Winning the Most Seats

SKP 99% NDP 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 2026-07-01 Election 2024 SKP NDP GRN Tie December 20, 2025 2024-03-16 SKP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-03-16 2024-08-22 SKP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-08-22 2024-09-23 SKP 72% NDP 28% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-24 SKP 99% NDP 1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP 98% NDP 2% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-25 2024-10-26 SKP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-26 2024-10-28 SKP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-28 2024-10-29 SKP 97% NDP 3% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-29 2024-11-12 SKP 71% NDP 29% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-11-12 2025-09-13 SKP 50% NDP 50% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-25 SKP >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 SKP >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2024-03-16 SKP >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-16 2024-08-22 SKP 96% NDP 4% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-08-22 2024-09-23 SKP 99% NDP 1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-09-23

338Canada Saskatchewan | Odds of Election Outcome

SKP majority 99% NDP majority 1% NDP minority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 2026-07-01 Election 2024 SKP majority NDP majority NDP minority December 20, 2025 2024-03-16 SKP majority 99% NDP majority 1% NDP minority <1% 2024-03-16 2024-08-22 SKP majority 98% NDP majority 2% NDP minority <1% 2024-08-22 2024-09-23 SKP majority >99% NDP majority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-24 SKP majority >99% NDP majority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP majority >99% NDP majority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP majority >99% NDP majority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP majority 97% NDP majority 3% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-25 2024-10-26 SKP majority 71% NDP majority 29% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-26 2024-10-28 SKP majority 50% NDP majority 50% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-28 2024-10-29 SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% NDP majority <1% 2024-10-29 2024-11-12 SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% NDP majority <1% 2024-11-12 2025-09-13 SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% NDP majority <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-25 SKP majority 96% NDP majority 4% NDP minority <1% 2025-10-25 2025-12-20 SKP majority 99% NDP majority 1% NDP minority <1% 2025-12-20