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Saskatchewan

Welcome to 338Canada Saskatchewan!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Projection | Saskatchewan


Latest update: November 12, 2024

Popular vote projection 52% ± 0% SKP 40% ± 0% NDP 4% ± 0% SUP 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 31 seats for a majority 34▼ [34-34] SKP 27▲ [27-27] NDP 0 SUP 0 GRN 338Canada Saskatchewan | November 12, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% SKP <1% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99% SKP maj. <1% SKP min. <1% NDP min. <1% NDP maj. Odds of outcome | November 12, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Saskatchewan | Popular vote projection

SKP NDP GRN SPP 0% ± 0% SKP 52% ± 0% NDP 40% ± 0% GRN 2% ± 0% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins November 12, 2024 2024-09-24 SKP 48% NDP 42% GRN 2% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP 51% NDP 40% GRN 2% 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP 51% NDP 40% GRN 2% 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP 53% NDP 41% GRN 2% 2024-10-25 2024-10-26 SKP 53% NDP 41% GRN 2% 2024-10-26 2024-10-28 SKP 50% NDP 44% GRN 2% 2024-10-28 2024-10-29 SKP 47% NDP 47% GRN 2% 2024-10-29 2024-11-12 NDP 48% SKP 47% GRN 2% 2024-11-12 2024-09-24 SKP 53% NDP 39% GRN 2% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP 52% NDP 40% GRN 2% 2024-10-14

Saskatchewan | Seat projection

SPP 0 [0-0] SKP 34 [34-34] NDP 27 [27-27] Seat projection 40 30 20 10 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins SKP NDP Majority: 31 seats November 12, 2024 2024-09-24 SKP 33 NDP 28 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP 38 NDP 23 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP 36 NDP 25 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP 39 NDP 22 2024-10-25 2024-10-26 SKP 39 NDP 22 2024-10-26 2024-10-28 SKP 40 NDP 21 2024-10-28 2024-10-29 SKP 39 NDP 22 2024-10-29 2024-11-12 SKP 36 NDP 25 2024-11-12 2024-09-24 SKP 32 NDP 29 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP 31 NDP 30 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP 35 NDP 26 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP 34 NDP 27 2024-10-25

Saskatchewan | Odds of winning the most seats

SKP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins SKP NDP GRN Tie November 12, 2024 2024-09-24 SKP 98% NDP 2% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-25 2024-10-26 SKP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-26 2024-10-28 SKP 97% NDP 3% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-28 2024-10-29 SKP 71% NDP 29% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-10-29 2024-11-12 SKP 50% NDP 50% Tie <1% GRN <1% 2024-11-12 2024-09-24 SKP >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-14

Saskatchewan | Odds of election outcome

SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 2024-11-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins SKP majority NDP minority November 12, 2024 2024-09-24 SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-24 2024-10-14 SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-16 SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-25 SKP majority 97% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-25 2024-10-26 SKP majority 71% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-26 2024-10-28 SKP majority 50% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-28 2024-10-29 SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-29 2024-11-12 SKP majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-11-12