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Canada

Oakville West



Latest projection: December 29, 2024
CPC safe
Oakville West 52% ± 8% CPC 31% ± 7% LPC 11% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 47.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oakville West >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Oakville West

LPC 31% ± 7% CPC 52% ± 8% NDP 11% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Oakville West 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 47% LPC 37% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 47% LPC 37% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 47% LPC 37% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 50% LPC 33% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 52% LPC 31% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 52% LPC 31% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2024-12-29

Odds of winning | Oakville West

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-29

Recent electoral history | Oakville West



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 38.1% 38.5% 52% ± 8% LPC 48.0% 47.5% 31% ± 7% NDP 7.5% 8.7% 11% ± 4% GPC 5.2% 1.7% 3% ± 3% PPC 1.2% 3.6% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.