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Canada

Oakville West


MP: Sima Acan (LPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
LPC likely

Recent electoral history | Oakville West


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 54% ± 8% 48.0% 47.5% 53.1% CPC 43% ± 8% 38.1% 38.5% 44.4% NDP 2% ± 2% 7.5% 8.7% 1.4% GPC 1% ± 1% 5.2% 1.7% 0.6% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.2% 3.6% 0.4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Oakville-Ouest


Oakville West 54% ± 8% LPC 43% ± 8% CPC LPC 2025 53.1% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oakville West 93% LPC 7% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Oakville West

LPC 54% ± 8% CPC 43% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Oakville West 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 52% LPC 31% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 51% LPC 33% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 51% LPC 33% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 48% LPC 36% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 46% LPC 39% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 45% LPC 43% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 45% CPC 43% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 46% CPC 42% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 45% CPC 43% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 47% CPC 41% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 49% CPC 40% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 53% CPC 38% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 53% CPC 38% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 53% CPC 38% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 55% CPC 39% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 53% CPC 45% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 53% CPC 45% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 53% CPC 45% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 53% CPC 44% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 53% CPC 44% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 53% CPC 44% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 54% CPC 44% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 54% CPC 43% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 54% CPC 43% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 54% CPC 43% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Oakville West

LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader