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Canada

338Canada federal projection | Prairies, 28 districts


Latest update: February 16, 2025
Prairies 53% ± 6% CPC 20% ± 4%▲ LPC 19% ± 4%▼ NDP 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Prairies, 28 federal districts 22▲ [19-24] CPC 5 [3-7] LPC 1▼ [0-3] NDP 0 [0-0] GPC 338Canada seat projection | February 16, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Prairies

LPC 20% ± 4% CPC 53% ± 6% NDP 19% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Prairies 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 16, 2025 2024-01-14 CPC 52% NDP 27% LPC 15% 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 CPC 52% NDP 27% LPC 15% 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 CPC 52% NDP 27% LPC 15% 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 CPC 52% NDP 27% LPC 15% 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 CPC 52% NDP 27% LPC 15% 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 CPC 52% NDP 27% LPC 15% 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 CPC 52% NDP 27% LPC 15% 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 CPC 52% NDP 27% LPC 15% 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 CPC 53% NDP 27% LPC 15% 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 CPC 53% NDP 26% LPC 15% 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 CPC 53% NDP 26% LPC 15% 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 CPC 53% NDP 27% LPC 15% 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 CPC 52% NDP 26% LPC 16% 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 CPC 52% NDP 27% LPC 16% 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 CPC 51% NDP 22% LPC 18% 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 CPC 52% NDP 22% LPC 17% 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 CPC 53% NDP 21% LPC 17% 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 CPC 53% NDP 21% LPC 17% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 53% NDP 20% LPC 18% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 53% NDP 20% LPC 18% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 53% NDP 20% LPC 19% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 53% NDP 19% LPC 19% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 52% LPC 19% NDP 19% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 52% NDP 20% LPC 19% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 50% NDP 20% LPC 19% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 50% NDP 20% LPC 19% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 50% NDP 20% LPC 19% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 51% NDP 19% LPC 19% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 51% NDP 20% LPC 19% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 51% NDP 20% LPC 18% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 51% NDP 20% LPC 18% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 51% NDP 20% LPC 18% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 50% NDP 21% LPC 18% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 49% NDP 21% LPC 19% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 50% NDP 21% LPC 18% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 50% NDP 21% LPC 19% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 51% NDP 21% LPC 17% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 52% NDP 22% LPC 16% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 52% NDP 23% LPC 15% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 52% NDP 23% LPC 14% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 52% NDP 23% LPC 15% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 53% NDP 23% LPC 15% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 53% NDP 23% LPC 15% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 53% NDP 22% LPC 15% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 54% NDP 21% LPC 15% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 55% NDP 21% LPC 15% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 55% NDP 21% LPC 15% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 55% NDP 21% LPC 15% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 55% NDP 21% LPC 15% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 57% NDP 21% LPC 15% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 57% NDP 21% LPC 15% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 57% NDP 21% LPC 14% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 57% NDP 20% LPC 15% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 56% NDP 20% LPC 15% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 56% NDP 20% LPC 16% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 55% NDP 21% LPC 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 53% NDP 20% LPC 18% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 53% LPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-02-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns

Seat projection | Prairies

LPC 5 [3-7] CPC 22 [19-24] NDP 1 [0-3] Seat projection | Prairies 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 16, 2025 2024-01-14 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 21 LPC 4 NDP 3 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 21 LPC 5 NDP 2 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 23 LPC 3 NDP 2 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 24 NDP 2 LPC 2 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 22 LPC 4 NDP 2 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 22 LPC 4 NDP 2 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 25 NDP 2 LPC 1 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 25 NDP 2 LPC 1 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 25 NDP 2 LPC 1 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 25 NDP 2 LPC 1 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 24 NDP 2 LPC 2 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 24 NDP 2 LPC 2 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 21 LPC 5 NDP 2 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 21 LPC 5 NDP 2 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 22 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-02-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns

Seat projection | Prairies


Latest update: February 16, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
18 1 1 2 22 20
1 3 1 0 5 5
0 0 1 0 1 3
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | Prairies


Latest update: February 16, 2025
Electoral district Transposed
2021 winner		 Latest projection
46001 Brandon—Souris CPC safe
46002 Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
46003 Elmwood—Transcona Toss up CPC/NDP
46004 Kildonan—St. Paul CPC safe
46005 Portage—Lisgar CPC safe
46006 Provencher CPC safe
46007 Riding Mountain CPC safe
46008 St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC likely
46009 Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe
46010 Winnipeg Centre NDP leaning
46011 Winnipeg North LPC safe
46012 Winnipeg South LPC likely
46013 Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely
46014 Winnipeg West CPC leaning
47001 Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe
47002 Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe
47003 Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC leaning
47004 Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe
47005 Prince Albert CPC safe
47006 Regina—Lewvan CPC safe
47007 Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe
47008 Regina—Wascana CPC safe
47009 Saskatoon South CPC safe
47010 Saskatoon—University CPC safe
47011 Saskatoon West CPC likely
47012 Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe
47013 Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe
47014 Yorkton—Melville CPC safe