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338Canada federal projection | Prairies, 28 districts


Latest update: September 7, 2025
Prairies 52% ± 6%▲ CPC 34% ± 5%▼ LPC 13% ± 4% NDP 338Canada federal vote projection | September 7, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Prairies, 28 federal districts 19▲ [15-21] CPC 7▼ [5-11] LPC 2 [1-3] NDP 0 [0-0] GPC 338Canada seat projection | September 7, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Federal vote projection | Prairies

LPC 34% ± 5% CPC 52% ± 6% NDP 13% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Prairies 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP September 7, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 57% NDP 20% LPC 15% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 56% NDP 20% LPC 15% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 56% NDP 20% LPC 16% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 55% NDP 21% LPC 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 53% NDP 20% LPC 18% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 53% LPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 53% LPC 21% NDP 17% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 50% LPC 23% NDP 17% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 50% LPC 23% NDP 17% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 48% LPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 48% LPC 31% NDP 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 32% NDP 13% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 49% LPC 32% NDP 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 13% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 12% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 54% LPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 10% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 52% LPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 50% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 50% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 50% LPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 52% LPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-09-07 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Federal seat projection | Prairies

LPC 7 [5-11] CPC 19 [15-21] NDP 2 [1-3] Seat projection | Prairies 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP September 7, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 25 NDP 2 LPC 1 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 24 NDP 2 LPC 2 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 24 NDP 2 LPC 2 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 21 LPC 5 NDP 2 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 21 LPC 5 NDP 2 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 22 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 22 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 20 LPC 5 NDP 3 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 19 LPC 6 NDP 3 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 19 LPC 6 NDP 3 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 20 LPC 8 NDP 0 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 19 LPC 8 NDP 1 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 19 LPC 8 NDP 1 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 20 LPC 8 NDP 0 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 20 LPC 8 NDP 0 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 20 LPC 8 NDP 0 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 20 LPC 8 NDP 0 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 20 LPC 8 NDP 0 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 20 LPC 8 NDP 0 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 19 LPC 6 NDP 3 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 19 LPC 6 NDP 3 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 19 LPC 6 NDP 3 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 19 LPC 6 NDP 3 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 18 LPC 7 NDP 3 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 19 LPC 6 NDP 3 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 19 LPC 6 NDP 3 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 18 LPC 7 NDP 3 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 20 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 19 LPC 8 NDP 1 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 15 LPC 11 NDP 2 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 16 LPC 10 NDP 2 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 16 LPC 10 NDP 2 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 16 LPC 10 NDP 2 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 16 LPC 10 NDP 2 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 17 LPC 9 NDP 2 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 17 LPC 9 NDP 2 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 18 LPC 8 NDP 2 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 19 LPC 7 NDP 2 2025-09-07 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Seat projection | Prairies


Latest update: September 7, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2025)
14 0 4 1 19 20
5 1 1 0 7 7
0 1 1 0 2 1
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | Prairies


Latest update: September 7, 2025
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
46001 Brandon—Souris CPC safe
46002 Churchill—Keewatinook Aski LPC leaning
46003 Elmwood—Transcona NDP leaning
46004 Kildonan—St. Paul Toss up LPC/CPC
46005 Portage—Lisgar CPC safe
46006 Provencher CPC safe
46007 Riding Mountain CPC safe
46008 St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC safe
46009 Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC safe
46010 Winnipeg Centre NDP likely
46011 Winnipeg North LPC safe
46012 Winnipeg South LPC safe
46013 Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe
46014 Winnipeg West LPC likely
47001 Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake CPC safe
47002 Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC safe
47003 Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River LPC safe
47004 Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC safe
47005 Prince Albert CPC safe
47006 Regina—Lewvan CPC leaning
47007 Regina—Qu’Appelle CPC safe
47008 Regina—Wascana CPC leaning
47009 Saskatoon South CPC leaning
47010 Saskatoon—University CPC leaning
47011 Saskatoon West CPC safe
47012 Souris—Moose Mountain CPC safe
47013 Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley CPC safe
47014 Yorkton—Melville CPC safe