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338Canada federal projection | Prairies, 28 districts


Latest update: September 24, 2023
Prairies 49% ± 7% 24% ± 6%▼ 20% ± 5% 3% ± 3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Prairies, 28 federal districts 21 [20-22] 4 [4-4] 3 [3-4] 0 [0-0] 338Canada seat projection | September 24, 2023
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Prairies

LPC 20% ± 5% CPC 49% ± 7% NDP 24% ± 6% 338Canada Popular vote projection % | Prairies 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP

Seat projection | Prairies

LPC 4 [4-4] CPC 21 [20-22] NDP 3 [3-4] 338Canada seat projection | Prairies 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP

Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
17 4 0 0 21 21
3 1 0 0 4 4
3 0 0 0 3 3
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts


Latest update: September 24, 2023
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
46001 Brandon–Souris CPC safe hold
46002 Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley CPC likely hold
46003 Churchill–Keewatinook Aski NDP safe hold
46004 Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa CPC safe hold
46005 Elmwood–Transcona NDP safe hold
46006 Kildonan–St. Paul CPC safe hold
46007 Portage–Lisgar CPC safe hold
46008 Provencher CPC safe hold
46009 Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC safe hold
46010 Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman CPC safe hold
46011 Winnipeg Centre NDP safe hold
46012 Winnipeg North LPC safe hold
46013 Winnipeg South LPC likely hold
46014 Winnipeg South Centre LPC safe hold
47001 Battlefords–Lloydminster CPC safe hold
47002 Cypress Hills–Grasslands CPC safe hold
47003 Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River CPC safe hold
47004 Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek CPC safe hold
47005 Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan CPC safe hold
47006 Prince Albert CPC safe hold
47007 Regina–Lewvan CPC likely hold
47008 Regina–Qu’Appelle CPC safe hold
47009 Regina–Wascana CPC safe hold
47010 Saskatoon–Grasswood CPC safe hold
47011 Saskatoon–University CPC likely hold
47012 Saskatoon West CPC likely hold
47013 Souris–Moose Mountain CPC safe hold
47014 Yorkton–Melville CPC safe hold