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Canada

Lac-Saint-Louis


MP: Francis Scarpaleggia (LPC)

Latest projection: June 29, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Lac-Saint-Louis


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 69% ± 7% 58.2% 56.3% 67.6% CPC 22% ± 6% 15.3% 18.9% 23.7% BQ 4% ± 2% 5.3% 5.3% 3.6% NDP 3% ± 2% 12.2% 13.3% 2.9% GPC 1% ± 1% 7.0% 3.2% 1.4% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.4% 3.0% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Lac-Saint-Louis


Lac-Saint-Louis 69% ± 7%▲ LPC 22% ± 6%▼ CPC 4% ± 2% BQ 3% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 67.6% 338Canada vote projection | June 29, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lac-Saint-Louis >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | June 29, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Lac-Saint-Louis

LPC 69% ± 7% CPC 22% ± 6% NDP 3% ± 2% BQ 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Lac-Saint-Louis 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 17% BQ 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 35% CPC 32% NDP 17% BQ 8% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 36% CPC 32% NDP 17% BQ 8% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 37% CPC 31% NDP 17% BQ 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 41% CPC 29% NDP 16% BQ 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 13% BQ 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 46% CPC 28% NDP 12% BQ 6% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 49% CPC 26% NDP 11% BQ 6% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 49% CPC 27% NDP 11% BQ 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 52% CPC 26% NDP 10% BQ 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 54% CPC 25% NDP 9% BQ 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 54% CPC 25% NDP 9% BQ 5% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 54% CPC 25% NDP 9% BQ 5% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 54% CPC 25% NDP 9% BQ 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 54% CPC 24% NDP 9% BQ 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 54% CPC 24% NDP 9% BQ 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 57% CPC 23% NDP 8% BQ 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 57% CPC 23% NDP 8% BQ 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 57% CPC 24% NDP 7% BQ 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 58% CPC 24% NDP 7% BQ 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 58% CPC 24% NDP 7% BQ 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 58% CPC 24% NDP 7% BQ 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 59% CPC 24% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 60% CPC 24% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 60% CPC 24% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 62% CPC 24% NDP 6% BQ 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 62% CPC 24% NDP 6% BQ 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 62% CPC 24% NDP 6% BQ 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 24% NDP 6% BQ 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 62% CPC 24% NDP 6% BQ 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 63% CPC 23% NDP 6% BQ 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 63% CPC 22% NDP 6% BQ 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 63% CPC 22% NDP 6% BQ 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 62% CPC 23% NDP 6% BQ 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 62% CPC 23% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 61% CPC 23% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 61% CPC 24% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 61% CPC 23% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 60% CPC 24% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 60% CPC 24% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 59% CPC 24% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 59% CPC 25% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 58% CPC 25% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 58% CPC 26% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 57% CPC 26% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 57% CPC 27% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 57% CPC 27% NDP 7% BQ 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 61% CPC 24% NDP 6% BQ 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 56% BQ 20% CPC 20% NDP 2% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 56% BQ 20% CPC 20% NDP 2% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 56% CPC 20% BQ 20% NDP 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 68% CPC 24% BQ 4% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 68% CPC 24% BQ 4% NDP 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 68% CPC 24% BQ 4% NDP 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 68% CPC 23% BQ 4% NDP 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 68% CPC 23% BQ 4% NDP 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 69% CPC 22% BQ 4% NDP 3% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Lac-Saint-Louis

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader