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Canada

Lac-Saint-Louis


MP elect: Francis Scarpaleggia (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Lac-Saint-Louis


Liberal Francis Scarpaleggia*
Conservative Matthew Rusniak
NDP Gregory Evdokias
Green Raymond Frizzell
Bloc Quebecois Tommy Fournier
PPC Mathieu Dufort

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Lac-Saint-Louis 68% ± 5%▲ LPC 24% ± 5%▲ CPC 4% ± 2%▼ BQ 3% ± 2%▲ NDP LPC 2025 67.6% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lac-Saint-Louis >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Lac-Saint-Louis

LPC 68% ± 5% CPC 24% ± 5% BQ 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Lac-Saint-Louis 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 36% CPC 31% BQ 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 35% CPC 32% BQ 8% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 36% CPC 32% BQ 8% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 37% CPC 31% BQ 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 41% CPC 29% BQ 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 44% CPC 28% BQ 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 46% CPC 28% BQ 6% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 49% CPC 26% BQ 6% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 49% CPC 27% BQ 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 52% CPC 26% BQ 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 54% CPC 25% BQ 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 54% CPC 25% BQ 5% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 54% CPC 25% BQ 5% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 54% CPC 25% BQ 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 54% CPC 24% BQ 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 54% CPC 24% BQ 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 57% CPC 23% BQ 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 57% CPC 23% BQ 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 58% CPC 24% BQ 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 58% CPC 24% BQ 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 58% CPC 24% BQ 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 59% CPC 24% BQ 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 60% CPC 24% BQ 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 60% CPC 24% BQ 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 62% CPC 24% BQ 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 62% CPC 24% BQ 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 62% CPC 24% BQ 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 24% BQ 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 62% CPC 24% BQ 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 63% CPC 23% BQ 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 63% CPC 22% BQ 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 63% CPC 22% BQ 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 62% CPC 23% BQ 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 62% CPC 23% BQ 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 61% CPC 23% BQ 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 61% CPC 24% BQ 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 61% CPC 23% BQ 4% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 60% CPC 24% BQ 4% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 60% CPC 24% BQ 4% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 59% CPC 25% BQ 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 59% CPC 25% BQ 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 59% CPC 25% BQ 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 59% CPC 24% BQ 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 59% CPC 25% BQ 4% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 58% CPC 25% BQ 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 58% CPC 26% BQ 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 57% CPC 26% BQ 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 57% CPC 27% BQ 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 57% CPC 27% BQ 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 61% CPC 24% BQ 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 56% BQ 20% CPC 20% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 56% BQ 20% CPC 20% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 56% CPC 20% BQ 20% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 68% CPC 24% BQ 4% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Lac-Saint-Louis

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Lac-Saint-Louis



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 68% ± 5% 58.2% 56.3% 67.6% CPC 24% ± 5% 15.3% 18.9% 23.7% BQ 4% ± 2% 5.3% 5.3% 3.6% NDP 3% ± 2% 12.2% 13.3% 2.9% GPC 1% ± 1% 7.0% 3.2% 1.4% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.4% 3.0% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.