logo
logo
Canada

Battle River—Crowfoot


MP elect: Damien Kurek (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Battle River—Crowfoot


Liberal Brent Sutton
Conservative Damien Kurek*
NDP James MacKay
Green Douglas Gook
PPC Jonathan Bridges

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Battle River—Crowfoot 83% ± 4%▲ CPC 12% ± 4%▲ LPC 3% ± 2%▼ NDP CPC 2025 82.8% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Battle River—Crowfoot >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Battle River—Crowfoot

LPC 12% ± 4% CPC 83% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Battle River—Crowfoot 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 79% NDP 11% LPC 3% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 79% NDP 10% LPC 3% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 79% NDP 10% LPC 3% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 79% NDP 11% LPC 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 79% NDP 10% LPC 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 79% NDP 10% LPC 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 79% NDP 9% LPC 4% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 76% NDP 10% LPC 5% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 75% NDP 10% LPC 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 73% NDP 9% LPC 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 74% LPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 74% LPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 73% LPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 73% LPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 73% LPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 74% LPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 73% LPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 74% LPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 74% LPC 14% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 75% LPC 13% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 75% LPC 13% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 75% LPC 13% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 76% LPC 13% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 76% LPC 13% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 77% LPC 13% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 77% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 77% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 77% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 77% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 78% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 78% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 79% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 80% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 80% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 80% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 79% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 80% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 79% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 79% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 79% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 79% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 79% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 80% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 81% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 80% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 80% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 80% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 80% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 80% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 80% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 80% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 82% LPC 11% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 82% LPC 11% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 82% LPC 11% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 83% LPC 12% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Battle River—Crowfoot

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Battle River—Crowfoot



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 83% ± 4% 85.6% 71.4% 82.8% LPC 12% ± 4% 4.1% 4.3% 11.7% NDP 3% ± 2% 5.0% 9.7% 3.2% PPC 2% ± 1% 2.6% 9.3% 1.6% GPC 1% ± 1% 2.7% 0.9% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.