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Canada

Simcoe—Grey



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Simcoe—Grey


Liberal Bren Munro
Conservative Terry Dowdall*
NDP Jasleen Bains
Green Allan Kuhn
PPC Giorgio Mammoliti

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Simcoe—Grey 52% ± 8%▲ CPC 37% ± 8%▼ LPC 6% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC CPC 2021 47.4% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Simcoe—Grey 99%▲ CPC 1%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Simcoe—Grey

LPC 37% ± 8% CPC 52% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Simcoe—Grey 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 54% LPC 26% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 53% LPC 27% NDP 9% GPC 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 8% GPC 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 9% GPC 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 9% GPC 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 8% GPC 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 8% GPC 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 8% GPC 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 50% LPC 33% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 50% LPC 33% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 6% GPC 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 6% GPC 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 6% GPC 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 52% LPC 35% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 52% LPC 36% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 52% LPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 52% LPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 52% LPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 52% LPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Simcoe—Grey

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Simcoe—Grey



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 43.2% 47.4% 52% ± 8% LPC 31.5% 27.9% 37% ± 8% NDP 11.1% 13.2% 6% ± 4% GPC 12.1% 4.2% 3% ± 3% PPC 1.8% 6.9% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.