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Canada

Simcoe—Grey


MP elect: Terry Dowdall (CPC)

Latest projection: May 11, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Simcoe—Grey


Liberal Bren Munro
Conservative Terry Dowdall*
NDP Jasleen Bains
Green Allan Kuhn
PPC Giorgio Mammoliti

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Simcoe—Grey 52% ± 5% CPC 44% ± 5% LPC CPC 2025 51.7% 338Canada vote projection | May 11, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Simcoe—Grey 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 11, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Simcoe—Grey

LPC 44% ± 5% CPC 52% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Simcoe—Grey 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 11, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 61% LPC 13% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 61% LPC 14% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 60% LPC 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 57% LPC 18% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 56% LPC 20% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 55% LPC 23% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 54% LPC 25% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 53% LPC 26% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 54% LPC 26% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 53% LPC 27% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 51% LPC 30% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 51% LPC 30% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 51% LPC 30% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 51% LPC 30% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 51% LPC 31% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 51% LPC 31% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 50% LPC 33% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 50% LPC 33% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 50% LPC 34% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 50% LPC 34% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 50% LPC 35% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 50% LPC 35% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 51% LPC 34% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 52% LPC 35% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 52% LPC 36% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 51% LPC 38% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 51% LPC 38% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 51% LPC 38% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 51% LPC 38% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 52% LPC 36% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 51% LPC 38% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 51% LPC 38% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 52% LPC 44% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 52% LPC 44% 2025-05-11 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Simcoe—Grey

LPC 2% CPC 98% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 11, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Simcoe—Grey



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 52% ± 5% 43.2% 47.4% 51.7% LPC 44% ± 5% 31.5% 27.9% 43.7% NDP 2% ± 1% 11.1% 13.2% 2.4% GPC 1% ± 1% 12.1% 4.2% 1.4% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.8% 6.9% 0.8%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.