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Canada


Scarborough Southwest (federal)


MP: Bill Blair (LPC)


Latest projection: October 1, 2023

LPC safe hold
Scarborough Southwest 48% ± 7%▼ 26% ± 6%▲ 17% ± 5%▼ 7% ± 4% LPC 2021 57.48% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 1, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Scarborough Southwest >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | October 1, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Scarborough Southwest

LPC 48% ± 7% CPC 26% ± 6% NDP 17% ± 5% GPC 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough Southwest 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Scarborough Southwest

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Scarborough Southwest



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 52.5% 57.2% 57.48% 48% ± 7% CPC 21.2% 20.7% 20.82% 26% ± 6% NDP 23.7% 15.5% 16.03% 17% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.2% 2.92% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.6% 4.9% 2.47% 7% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.27% 0% ± 0%