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Canada

Northumberland—Clarke



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Northumberland—Clarke


Liberal John Goheen
Conservative Philip Lawrence*
NDP Ava Becker
Green Christina Marie Wilson
PPC Lisa Bradburn
Christian Heritage John Wesselius
Canadian Future Ethan Armit
Independent Jody Ledgerwood

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Northumberland—Clarke 47% ± 8% CPC 41% ± 8% LPC 6% ± 4% NDP CPC 2021 44.0% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Northumberland—Clarke 80%▼ CPC 20%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Northumberland—Clarke

LPC 41% ± 8% CPC 47% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Northumberland—Clarke 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 52% LPC 30% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 48% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Northumberland—Clarke

LPC 20% CPC 80% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Northumberland—Clarke



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 39.3% 44.0% 47% ± 8% LPC 36.7% 34.0% 41% ± 8% NDP 13.8% 13.9% 6% ± 4% GPC 8.0% 2.6% 2% ± 2% PPC 2.2% 5.5% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.