logo
Canada


Oshawa (federal)


MP: Colin Carrie (CPC)


Latest projection: April 14, 2024

CPC safe hold
Oshawa 50% ± 7% 28% ± 6% 13% ± 4% 5% ± 4% 4% ± 4% CPC 2021 39.71% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Oshawa >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 14, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Oshawa

LPC 13% ± 4% CPC 50% ± 7% NDP 28% ± 6% GPC 5% ± 4% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Oshawa 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Odds of winning | Oshawa

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Oshawa



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 38.2% 38.9% 39.71% 50% ± 7% NDP 31.9% 28.5% 28.46% 28% ± 6% LPC 27.3% 25.4% 22.8% 13% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 2.0% 7.06% 4% ± 4% GPC 2.5% 5.1% 1.97% 5% ± 4%