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Canada

Northumberland—Clarke


MP elect: Philip Lawrence (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Northumberland—Clarke


Liberal John Goheen
Conservative Philip Lawrence*
NDP Ava Becker
Green Christina Marie Wilson
PPC Lisa Bradburn
Christian Heritage John Wesselius
Canadian Future Ethan Armit
Independent Jody Ledgerwood

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Northumberland—Clarke 50% ± 0%▲ CPC 45% ± 0%▲ LPC 3% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 49.7% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Northumberland—Clarke 88%▲ CPC 12%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Northumberland—Clarke

LPC 45% ± 0% CPC 50% ± 0% NDP 3% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Northumberland—Clarke 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 52% LPC 30% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 32% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 48% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 48% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 48% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 48% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 48% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 48% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 48% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 48% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 50% LPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Northumberland—Clarke

LPC 12% CPC 88% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Northumberland—Clarke



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 50% ± 0% 39.3% 44.0% 49.7% LPC 45% ± 0% 36.7% 34.0% 45.0% NDP 3% ± 0% 13.8% 13.9% 3.0% GPC 1% ± 0% 8.0% 2.6% 0.9% PPC 1% ± 0% 2.2% 5.5% 0.8% IND 1% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.