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Canada

Richmond—Arthabaska



Latest projection: March 27, 2025
CPC safe
Richmond—Arthabaska 48% ± 8%▲ CPC 27% ± 6%▼ BQ 16% ± 5% LPC 4% ± 3% NDP CPC 2021 49.9% 338Canada vote projection | March 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond—Arthabaska >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% LPC Odds of winning | March 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Richmond—Arthabaska

LPC 16% ± 5% CPC 48% ± 8% NDP 4% ± 3% BQ 27% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Richmond—Arthabaska 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ March 27, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 50% BQ 29% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% BQ 29% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% BQ 28% LPC 14% NDP 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% BQ 28% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 49% BQ 28% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% BQ 28% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 49% BQ 29% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 48% BQ 29% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 47% BQ 28% LPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 47% BQ 28% LPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 48% BQ 27% LPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-27 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Richmond—Arthabaska

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ March 27, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Richmond—Arthabaska



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 45.3% 49.9% 48% ± 8% BQ 28.2% 24.8% 27% ± 6% LPC 15.1% 14.9% 16% ± 5% NDP 4.9% 4.5% 4% ± 3% PPC 1.2% 3.6% 2% ± 3% GPC 5.3% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.