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Canada

Richmond—Arthabaska


MP: Éric Lefebvre (CPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Richmond—Arthabaska


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 36% ± 7% 45.3% 49.9% 35.5% LPC 33% ± 7% 15.1% 14.9% 33.0% BQ 27% ± 6% 28.2% 24.8% 27.3% NDP 2% ± 2% 4.9% 4.5% 2.0% PPC 1% ± 2% 1.2% 3.6% 1.1% GPC 0% ± 0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.


Richmond—Arthabaska 36% ± 7% CPC 33% ± 7% LPC 27% ± 6% BQ CPC 2025 35.5% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond—Arthabaska 67%▼ CPC 31%▲ LPC 2%▲ BQ Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Richmond—Arthabaska

LPC 33% ± 7% CPC 36% ± 7% BQ 27% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Richmond—Arthabaska 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 54% BQ 32% LPC 6% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 53% BQ 33% LPC 6% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 53% BQ 33% LPC 6% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 52% BQ 33% LPC 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 52% BQ 32% LPC 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 52% BQ 31% LPC 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 52% BQ 30% LPC 9% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 51% BQ 29% LPC 11% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 50% BQ 29% LPC 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% BQ 29% LPC 12% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% BQ 28% LPC 14% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% BQ 28% LPC 14% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 49% BQ 28% LPC 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% BQ 28% LPC 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 49% BQ 29% LPC 14% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 48% BQ 29% LPC 14% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 47% BQ 28% LPC 16% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 47% BQ 28% LPC 16% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 48% BQ 27% LPC 16% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 49% BQ 27% LPC 16% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 49% BQ 26% LPC 17% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 50% BQ 26% LPC 17% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 50% BQ 26% LPC 17% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 51% BQ 24% LPC 18% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 52% BQ 23% LPC 18% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 52% BQ 23% LPC 18% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 52% BQ 23% LPC 18% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 52% BQ 23% LPC 19% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 52% BQ 22% LPC 19% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 52% BQ 22% LPC 19% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 52% BQ 22% LPC 19% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 53% BQ 22% LPC 18% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 53% BQ 21% LPC 18% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 53% BQ 21% LPC 18% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 54% BQ 21% LPC 18% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 54% BQ 21% LPC 18% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 55% BQ 20% LPC 17% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 53% BQ 22% LPC 18% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 51% BQ 24% LPC 18% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 51% BQ 24% LPC 18% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 51% BQ 24% LPC 18% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 51% BQ 24% LPC 18% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 51% BQ 24% LPC 18% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 51% BQ 24% LPC 18% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 50% BQ 25% LPC 18% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 51% BQ 24% LPC 17% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 52% BQ 24% LPC 17% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 52% BQ 24% LPC 17% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 53% BQ 24% LPC 16% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 53% BQ 24% LPC 16% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 53% BQ 23% LPC 17% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 36% LPC 33% BQ 27% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 36% LPC 33% BQ 27% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 36% LPC 33% BQ 27% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 36% LPC 33% BQ 27% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 36% LPC 33% BQ 27% 2025-06-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Richmond—Arthabaska

LPC 31% CPC 67% NDP <1% BQ 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 78% LPC 22% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 77% LPC 23% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 74% LPC 25% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 71% LPC 28% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 67% LPC 31% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader