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Recent electoral history | Richmond—Arthabaska


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 32% ± 6% 45.3% 49.9% 35.5% LPC 32% ± 6% 15.1% 14.9% 33.0% BQ 29% ± 6% 28.2% 24.8% 27.3% NDP 3% ± 2% 4.9% 4.5% 2.0% PPC 1% ± 2% 1.2% 3.6% 1.1%

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338Canada Richmond—Arthabaska projection

Latest update: February 15, 2026

Richmond—Arthabaska 26% 38% 32% ± 6% CPC 25% 38% 32% ± 6% LPC 23% 36% 29% ± 6% BQ 1% 6% 3% ± 2% NDP CPC 2025 35.5% 338Canada vote projection | February 15, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond—Arthabaska 46%▼ CPC 38%▲ LPC 16%▲ BQ Odds of winning | February 15, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Richmond—Arthabaska

LPC 32% ± 6% CPC 32% ± 6% BQ 29% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Richmond—Arthabaska 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC IND February 15, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 53% BQ 24% LPC 16% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 53% BQ 24% LPC 16% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 53% BQ 23% LPC 17% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 36% LPC 33% BQ 27% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 36% LPC 33% BQ 27% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 36% LPC 33% BQ 27% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 36% LPC 33% BQ 27% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 36% LPC 33% BQ 27% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 35% LPC 33% BQ 28% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 35% LPC 33% BQ 28% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 34% LPC 34% BQ 28% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 34% LPC 34% BQ 27% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 35% CPC 34% BQ 27% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 36% CPC 33% BQ 26% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 36% CPC 33% BQ 26% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 36% CPC 33% BQ 27% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 36% CPC 33% BQ 27% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 35% CPC 32% BQ 28% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 34% CPC 33% BQ 28% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 34% CPC 33% BQ 28% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 33% LPC 33% BQ 29% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 33% LPC 33% BQ 29% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 34% LPC 33% BQ 29% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 34% LPC 33% BQ 28% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 35% LPC 32% BQ 28% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 35% LPC 32% BQ 28% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 35% LPC 31% BQ 29% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 35% LPC 31% BQ 30% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 35% LPC 31% BQ 30% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 35% LPC 31% BQ 29% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 36% LPC 30% BQ 29% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 37% LPC 30% BQ 29% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 36% LPC 30% BQ 30% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 36% LPC 30% BQ 30% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 34% BQ 32% LPC 30% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 34% BQ 32% LPC 30% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 33% BQ 33% LPC 29% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 BQ 32% CPC 31% LPC 29% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 BQ 32% CPC 31% LPC 29% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 BQ 32% CPC 31% LPC 29% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 BQ 33% CPC 31% LPC 29% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 BQ 33% CPC 31% LPC 28% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 33% LPC 31% BQ 30% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 33% LPC 31% BQ 29% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 CPC 32% LPC 32% BQ 29% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2026-02-15

Odds of winning | Richmond—Arthabaska

LPC 38% CPC 46% NDP <1% BQ 16% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ February 15, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 78% LPC 22% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 77% LPC 23% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 74% LPC 25% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 71% LPC 28% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 67% LPC 32% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 64% LPC 34% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 59% LPC 38% BQ 3% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 54% LPC 43% BQ 3% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 53% LPC 46% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 61% CPC 39% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 66% CPC 33% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 69% CPC 30% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 72% CPC 27% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 76% CPC 23% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 69% CPC 29% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 60% CPC 37% BQ 3% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 52% CPC 45% BQ 4% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 48% LPC 47% BQ 5% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 51% LPC 39% BQ 10% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 56% LPC 37% BQ 6% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 62% LPC 33% BQ 4% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 75% LPC 20% BQ 4% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 75% LPC 20% BQ 5% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 76% LPC 15% BQ 8% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 76% LPC 15% BQ 9% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 79% LPC 13% BQ 8% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 79% LPC 13% BQ 8% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 84% LPC 10% BQ 6% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 89% LPC 7% BQ 4% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 85% LPC 8% BQ 7% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 83% LPC 9% BQ 8% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 55% BQ 29% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 56% BQ 33% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 49% BQ 43% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 BQ 52% CPC 36% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 BQ 53% CPC 35% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 BQ 54% CPC 35% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 BQ 59% CPC 31% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 BQ 58% CPC 35% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 58% LPC 24% BQ 17% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 58% LPC 27% BQ 15% NDP <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 CPC 46% LPC 38% BQ 16% NDP <1% 2026-02-15


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Demographic data | Richmond—Arthabaska

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 96.4% French 2.4% English 0.6% Spanish 0.2% Arabic 0.0% Serbo-Croatian 0.0% Mandarin 0.0% CreoleRichmond—ArthabaskaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 16.5% No diploma 18.1% High school 27.7% Trade 19.4% College / Cégep 2.6% Some university 10.7% Bachelor's 5.2% PostgraduateRichmond—ArthabaskaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 97.6% Not visible minority 2.4% Visible minority 0.8% Latin American 0.6% Black 0.4% Arab 0.2% Chinese 0.2% Southeast Asian 0.1% FilipinoRichmond—ArthabaskaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 68.5% Catholic 23.3% No Religion 5.2% Christian (n.o.s.) 0.6% Muslim 0.5% Other Christian 0.4% Jehovah's Witness 0.3% Anglican 0.3% United ChurchRichmond—ArthabaskaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 68.0% Owner 32.0% RenterRichmond—ArthabaskaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 58.9% Employed 38.1% Not in labour force 2.9% UnemployedRichmond—ArthabaskaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 98.6% Non-Indigenous 1.4% Indigenous identity 0.9% First Nations 0.5% Metis 0.1% OthersRichmond—ArthabaskaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 91.7% Car / truck / van 5.4% Walking 1.8% Other 0.8% Bicycle 0.3% Public transitRichmond—ArthabaskaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.