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Canada

Richmond—Arthabaska



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Richmond—Arthabaska


Liberal Alain Saint-Pierre
Conservative Éric Lefebvre
NDP Natael Bureau
Bloc Quebecois Daniel Lebel
PPC Philippe D'Arcangeli
Rhinoceros Real BatRhino Martel
Independent Henri Donascimento

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Richmond—Arthabaska 51% ± 8% CPC 24% ± 6% BQ 18% ± 5% LPC 3% ± 3% NDP CPC 2021 49.9% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond—Arthabaska >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% LPC Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Richmond—Arthabaska

LPC 18% ± 5% CPC 51% ± 8% NDP 3% ± 3% BQ 24% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Richmond—Arthabaska 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 50% BQ 29% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% BQ 29% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% BQ 28% LPC 14% NDP 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% BQ 28% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 49% BQ 28% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% BQ 28% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 49% BQ 29% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 48% BQ 29% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 47% BQ 28% LPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 47% BQ 28% LPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 48% BQ 27% LPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 49% BQ 27% LPC 16% NDP 3% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 49% BQ 26% LPC 17% NDP 3% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 50% BQ 26% LPC 17% NDP 3% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 50% BQ 26% LPC 17% NDP 3% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 51% BQ 24% LPC 18% NDP 3% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 52% BQ 23% LPC 18% NDP 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 52% BQ 23% LPC 18% NDP 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 52% BQ 23% LPC 18% NDP 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 52% BQ 23% LPC 19% NDP 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 52% BQ 22% LPC 19% NDP 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 52% BQ 22% LPC 19% NDP 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 52% BQ 22% LPC 19% NDP 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 53% BQ 22% LPC 18% NDP 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 53% BQ 21% LPC 18% NDP 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 53% BQ 21% LPC 18% NDP 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 54% BQ 21% LPC 18% NDP 3% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 54% BQ 21% LPC 18% NDP 3% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 55% BQ 20% LPC 17% NDP 3% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 53% BQ 22% LPC 18% NDP 3% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 51% BQ 24% LPC 18% NDP 3% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 51% BQ 24% LPC 18% NDP 3% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Richmond—Arthabaska

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Richmond—Arthabaska



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 45.3% 49.9% 51% ± 8% BQ 28.2% 24.8% 24% ± 6% LPC 15.1% 14.9% 18% ± 5% NDP 4.9% 4.5% 3% ± 3% PPC 1.2% 3.6% 2% ± 3% GPC 5.3% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.